Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Dollar Better Bid Ahead of Jobs Report as Japanese and German Data Disappoint, but Will it be Sustained?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

Overview:  It is not clear what happened yesterday, the first time US and Chinese leaders have spoken since the inauguration. The US readout suggests trade was only discussed and a deal on the rare earths was reached. China's readout included an expression of concern about US planned arms sales to Taiwan and the need for …

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Euro Trades Quietly Ahead of the ECB’s Rate Cut

2025-06-05

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2025-06-05

Overview:  The dollar is mostly softer today in narrow trading ranges, though it is firmer against the yen and Swiss franc. The weakness of US data (ADP, ISM services, and anecdotal Beige Book) lifted the market confidence of at least two Fed cuts this year. Most emerging market currencies are also trading higher against the …

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Squawk Box Clip: Another 5% Down in the Dollar Index This Year

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

I had a privilege of joining Becky Quick on CNBC's Squawk Box to talk about the dollar.  I  suggested there may be scope for the Dollar Index to fall another 5% over the remainder of the year.  I am not so focused on the dollar losing its reserve currency status but cyclical developments.  The Fed …

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Hump Day Consolidation in Forex

2025-06-04

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2025-06-04

Overview: The dollar was better bid yesterday in North America after the better-than-expected JOLTS report, but it has come back offered today. Still, the general tone is one of consolidation. The greenback is a little softer against the most G10 currencies and all but a handful of emerging market currencies. Meanwhile, most of the final …

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Tuesday: US Dollar Stabilizes but Hardly Turns Around

2025-06-03

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2025-06-03

Overview: The US dollar is firmer against all the G10 currencies, but its gains have been muted, and "consolidation" better characterizes the price action. What were seen as dovish central bank minutes has dragged the Australian dollar down the most among the major currencies, and it is off a little more than 0.5%. The Canadian …

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Markets Rattled to Start the New Month Amid Heightened Trade Tensions

2025-06-02

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2025-06-02

Overview: The breakdown in the US-China trade agreement, the doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs, and Ukraine's daring drone attack have rattled market, sending stock, bonds, and the dollar lower. All the G10 currencies are up by at least 0.35%, with the Scandis leading the way up by more than 1%. Although the Canadian …

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June 2025 Monthly

2025-05-31

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2025-05-31

Navigating the global economy and managing capital market volatility has always posed challenges, but the uncertainties emanating from Washington make this task exceptionally treacherous. The so-called reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 were postponed for 90 days just one week later, ostensibly to usher in a period of intensive negotiations. Yet a few weeks into …

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On-Again Off-Again US Tariffs are Back

2025-05-30

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2025-05-30

Overview: The on-again, off-again US tariffs are back on, but the judicial process is not over. On top of that, US Treasury Secretary Bessent acknowledged what many have suspected:  US-Chinese talks have stalled. The dollar, which was offered yesterday, has come back bid today. It is up against nearly all the G10 currencies. The yen …

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US Trade Court Roils Markets: Trump Administration to Appeal

2025-05-29

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2025-05-29

Overview: There is one driver today. The US Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump administration's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The court rules that the 1977 law used to justify the actions did not apply. The ruling also applies to the earlier tariffs on security of the US borders and fentanyl trafficking. The dollar initially …

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Consumer Confidence Dollar Boost Fades

2025-05-28

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2025-05-28

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies. Ironically, the New Zealand dollar is the strongest following the widely expected quarter-point cut by the central bank. The Canadian dollar is the laggard, the only G10 currency not to have found traction against the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are also enjoying …

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Japan Sparks Turn Around Tuesday’s Dollar Short-Covering

2025-05-27

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2025-05-27

Overview: Speculation that Japan will take measures to stem the rout in the government bond market has helped spur a short-covering bounce in the dollar after finished last week poorly and sold off yesterday. There has been a sharp drop in Japanese long-term bond yields, and although the dollar is higher against all the G10 …

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Week Ahead: Greenback Begins Off on the Defensive

2025-05-24

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2025-05-24

Between its trade war and the "big, beautiful budget", which is both regressive and adds on more debt, the US has roiled the capital markets. Before the weekend, the US said the EU was not negotiating in good faith. President Trump threatened a 50% tariff as of June 1. This looks harsher than the current … Continue reading »

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Dollar Slumps

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

Overview:  The dollar is finishing the week heavily.  It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies.  The only exceptions are the Turkish lira and Hong Kong dollar.  For the week, among the G10 currencies, only the Australian dollar has not risen at least 1%,  Helped by stronger than expected retail sales, sterling set …

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Japanese Bond Rout Continues, While Disappointing PMI Weighs on the Euro

2025-05-22

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2025-05-22

Overview: Disappointing flash May PMI readings in Europe and the Asia Pacific helped the US dollar stabilize after yesterday's drop. Asian currencies, including the yen, has been unsettled by reports that in bilateral trade discussions with the US, exchange rates have been discussed. This, coupled with extensive unhedged dollar exposure rocked several of the regional …

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Be Prepared for a Challenging Day

2025-05-21

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2025-05-21

Overview: The greenback is under pressure. It is off against nearly all of the world's currencies after falling in North America yesterday. Reports that Israel may be planning a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities has contributed to the broad risk off moods and helped lift July WTI to new highs since early April. While the …

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Tug-of-War Over the Dollar Continues

2025-05-20

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2025-05-20

Overview: US stocks and bonds recovered from yesterday's sell-off in Asia and Europe. The Swiss National Bank President Schlegel expressed the views of many Americans when he said on Monday that "There is currently no alternative" to US Treasuries, "and it's not foreseeable that there will be an alternative."  The 10- and 30-Treasury yields finished …

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Asia and Europe Respond to Moody’s Belated Downgrade of the US

2025-05-19

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2025-05-19

Overview: Moody’s took away the US AAA rating before the weekend. It was the last of the big three rating agencies to do so. We do not think there is fresh information content in its belated decision, but participants in Asia and Europe have reacted by selling the US dollar and US assets. The 30-year … Continue...

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Week Ahead: Greenback’s Recovery Looks Poised to Continue

2025-05-17

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2025-05-17

The dollar traded choppily last week but settled higher against all the G10 currencies. It finished the week on a firm note. The messy upside correction for the dollar may continue. Despite disappointing retail sales and manufacturing output, and softer than expected CPI and PPI, the market has pushed the next Fed cut into Q4 …

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US to Impose Tariffs in 2-3 Weeks as Administration “Lacks Capacity” to Negotiate with Everyone

2025-05-16

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2025-05-16

Overview: While the US dollar is a little softer today against the G10 currencies, it remains mostly within Wednesday's range. The yen is a notable exception. It made a new high for the week despite the contraction in Q1 25 GDP. Most emerging market currencies are firmer. The markets have not reacted to a statement …

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Asia and Europe Did Not Share North America’s Enthusiasm for the Dollar

2025-05-15

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2025-05-15

Overview: There has been little follow-through dollar buying today after its recovery in North America yesterday. The greenback is softer against most of the G10 currencies. The Antipodeans are lagging alongside the Norwegian krone, perhaps weighed down by the sharp drop in oil prices following President Trump's indication and a deal with Iran may be …

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