Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Cook and Miran to Attend the FOMC Meeting that Starts Today

2025-09-16

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2025-09-16

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a softer bias against nearly all the G10 currencies. Yesterday's losses have been extended. The exception is the Norwegian krone, which is hovering around unchanged levels. The greenback is softer against most emerging market currencies. Despite Britain and France sending aircraft to help protect Polish airspace after more …

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The Dollar is Softer to Start the New Week

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

Overview: The US dollar begins the important week quietly but heavier against all the G10 currencies, led by sterling. It is pushing against the $1.36 cap that has blocked the upside over the past couple of months. All but a few emerging market currencies also enjoy a firmer tone today. The Mexican peso has recorded … Continue reading...

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Week Ahead: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada to Cut, while BOJ and BOE Stand Pat

2025-09-13

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2025-09-13

The week ahead features five G10 central bank meetings. Two will most likely cut rates, the US and Canada, and two will stand pat, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Norges Bank, Norway's central bank also meets.  It is a close call but we lean slightly in favor of it cutting 25 … Continue reading...

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Firmer US Rates Help the Dollar Steady

2025-09-12

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2025-09-12

Overview: After yesterday's decline following the CPI and jump in weekly jobless claims, the dollar has steadied today, even if the upticks are not so inspiring. US rates have steadied. The 10-year yield frayed the 4% threshold for the first time in five months but settled a little above it. Today it is a couple … Continue reading...

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ECB Meeting may be a Non-Event, US CPI is Key

2025-09-11

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2025-09-11

Overview: The US dollar enjoys a firmer today ahead of the CPI and ECB meeting outcome. After falling to a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan earlier today, it has recovered and is higher on the day. The market is pricing in almost a 10% chance of a 50 bp cut next … Continue reading »

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Deflation Continues to Grip China

2025-09-10

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2025-09-10

Overview: The US dollar is trading quietly today, ahead of the August PPI, though with a weaker bias against most of the G10 currencies. The yen and Canadian dollar are the laggards. Two news developments are among the talking points. First, a federal judge temporarily blocked President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook. …

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Could We Learn Today that the US Created Only Around Half the Number of Jobs in the Year through March as it Thought?

2025-09-09

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2025-09-09

Overview: The US dollar continues to trade with a heavier bias. Today, the yen is leading the move on the back of renewed speculation that the BOJ may still hike rates this year. The Australian dollar has broken above $0.6600 to approach the year's high, while the Canadian dollar is the laggard, as is often …

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Japanese and French Politics Take Limelight for the Moment

2025-09-08

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2025-09-08

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating with a softer bias after the disappointing employment report before the weekend. The derivatives market is pricing in about a 10% chance of a 50 bp Fed cut next week, which still seems exaggerated given the likely uptick in headline CPI this week. The Japanese yen is the only …

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Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat

2025-09-06

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2025-09-06

The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though more unwelcome news from the labor market is expected with next week's BLS annual benchmark revisions that could wipe out 500k-1 mln jobs (the adjustment last year was 818k lower), the risk of …

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Dollar Slumps Ahead of the Employment Report

2025-09-05

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2025-09-05

Overview: The focus is on US employment today. Weak jobs growth and a tick up in the unemployment rate are expected to spur the Fed's first rate cut of the year in a couple of weeks. Position adjusting ahead of the report has weighed on the greenback broadly and overwhelmed the unexpectedly poor Germany factory … Continue...

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US Jobs Data Key to Near-Term Greenback’s Fate

2025-09-04

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2025-09-04

Overview: The US dollar is firm against the G10 currencies today but is mostly trading inside yesterday's ranges. After yesterday's disappointing JOLTS report attention turns to the ADP estimate today, ahead of tomorrow's BLS report. The lack of follow-through selling after yesterday's losses may be encouraging some short-term momentum traders to move to the sidelines. …

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Dollar Stabilizes

2025-09-03

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2025-09-03

Overview: After yesterday's jump, the dollar is mostly consolidating at lower levels today. The Scandis and euro are leading the recovery of the G10 currencies, the New Zealand and Canadian dollars, and yen are nursing small losses. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba was not blamed for the electoral losses in a party investigation, but the LDP …

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The Greenback Surges While Rates Jump

2025-09-02

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2025-09-02

Overview: A broadly stronger US dollar greets the returning North American participants from the long holiday weekend. The greenback has risen by 0.7% or more against most of the G10 currencies. The Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have fared best and are off less than 0.2%. Sterling is bearing the brunt. It is off nearly … Continue...

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September 2025 Monthly

2025-08-30

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2025-08-30

The Federal Reserve is poised to resume its rate cutting cycle in September. Markets briefly flirted with the idea of a 50-basis point move, but sticky core inflation, a larger-than-expected jump in producer prices, and firm retail sales have settled expectations at a quarter-point cut. The Fed continues to describe policy as restrictive, so this …

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Chop Fest in FX Continues

2025-08-29

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2025-08-29

Overview: Ahead of the long holiday weekend in North America, the US dollar is trading with a slightly firmer bias in narrow trading ranges. The drama around the Fed has intensified with FHFA Director Pulte sending a new criminal referral against Governor Cook regarding a third mortgage, while Governor Waller reiterated his dissent from last …

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China Allows Faster Yuan Appreciation, while Follow-Through Selling Weighs on the Greenback

2025-08-28

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2025-08-28

Overview: After yesterday's setback in North America, the greenback remains under modest pressure today. It is lower against all the G10 currencies. The dollar also is softer against most emerging market currencies. The dollar was fixed at a new low for the year against the Chinese yuan. The yuan has a five-day advance in tow, …

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US Dollar Comes Back Bid

2025-08-27

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2025-08-27

Overview: After yesterday's pullback, the US dollar has rebounded. It is trading its best level against several of the G10 currencies since Fed Chair Powell spoke at Jackson Hole before the weekend. Most emerging market currencies are weaker, too, with the notable exception of the pegged Hong Kong dollar, and the Thai baht. The PBOC … Continue...

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Market Sees Challenge to Fed’s Independence by Trump’s Attempt to Fire Cook

2025-08-26

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2025-08-26

Overview: The dollar's impressive recovery from the pre-weekend sell-off spurred by comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell at Jackson Hole was challenged earlier today on news that President Trump was carrying out his threat to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook. Cook will reportedly challenge the president's authority. The dispute revolves around whether there is "cause", …

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Markets Consolidate after the Big Moves Before the Weekend

2025-08-25

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2025-08-25

Overview: The US markets responded dramatically to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole before the weekend. In today's late August session devoid of much news, the markets are consolidating. The dollar is in narrow ranges, and there may be some more corrective upticks in North America today. Emerging market currencies are more mixed. …

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Week Ahead: Fundamentals and Technicals Give Greenlight to Sell Dollars

2025-08-23

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2025-08-23

The market was caught leaning the wrong way. Anticipation that Federal Reserve Chair Powell was going to push against speculation of a September rate cut had underpinned the US dollar and short-term rates. The S&P 500 had sold off for five consecutive sessions, the longest losing streak of the year through August 21. Powell said …

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