Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Week Ahead: Market Seeks Proper Balance after Exaggerating in Both Directions

2023-02-18

by

2023-02-18

The pendulum of market sentiment swung from fear of a synchronized recession in the US and Europe to optimism that a recession can be avoid. The perceived reduction of downside risks had driven the upside performance of equities and bonds. Just as the data seems to confirm it, the rally in in stocks and bonds faltered. The MSCI Emerging Markets equity index gained 7.8% last month but is off almost 3.8% this month, and has fallen for three...

Read More »

Dramatic Swing in Sentiment Extends the Greenback’s Rally

2023-02-17

by

2023-02-17

Overview:  A series of strong US high-frequency data points after a poor finish to last year has spurred a dramatic shift in market expectations. And talk among a couple of (non-voting) FOMC members of a 50 bp hike has provided added fodder. The greenback is extending its recovery today against all the major currencies, with the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit the hardest. Emerging market currencies have also been knocked back. This is part...

Read More »

Markets Catch Collective Breath

2023-02-16

by

2023-02-16

Overview:  On the heels of a dramatic jump in US job creation and firmer than expected year-over-year CPI, the US reported a larger than expected jump in retail sales and a strong recovery in manufacturing output. Few think that economic momentum that the recent data implies can be repeated, the "no landing" camp has gained adherents. We suspect that says more about psychology than the economy. The US two-year note is threatening to snap...

Read More »

US Dollar Comes Back Better Bid

2023-02-15

by

2023-02-15

Overview: Although the US January CPI was in line with expectations, the year-over-year rate was a little firmer than expected. Still, the measure that Fed Chair Powell has underscored, core services, excluding shelter, moderated with a 0.3% month-over-month gain. US rates shot up and this lent the dollar support, while weighing on equities and risk sentiment. The US two-year note yield rose to almost 4.64% yesterday, the highest in three months....

Read More »

Dollar and Rates Soften a Little Ahead of US CPI

2023-02-14

by

2023-02-14

The focus is on the US CPI report today, but the price action is anything but intuitive. Although the revisions of the basket and methodological changes reinforce expectations for the largest rise in three months, the US dollar continues to trade heavily after rallying last week. The dollar-bloc currencies are underperforming today. And US rates are softer. The US 2- and 10-year yields are 1-2 bp lower.

Read More »

Yen Retreats Ahead of Formal BOJ Announcement Tomorrow and US CPI

2023-02-13

by

2023-02-13

Overview: A consolidative tone is mostly the theme of the day. The revisions to the US CPI announced before the weekend add to the uncertainty and focus on tomorrow's report. At the same time, investors watch ongoing air space activity that has led to a few objects being shot down over the US and Canadian airspace.

Read More »

Week Ahead: US CPI to Begin Sharper Deacceleration through H1 23

2023-02-11

by

2023-02-11

After selling off sharply in the past four months, the dollar rebounded. Since the FOMC meeting on February 1, it has enjoyed one of the strongest bounces since it topped out in late September/early October. The incredible US jobs data, sharp bounce in the January services ISM, speculation of BOJ Governor Kuroda's successor, and some easing of the euphoria over China's re-opening have been notable drivers.

Read More »

A Day of Surprises

2023-02-10

by

2023-02-10

(I am on a business trip and did not intend to post any analysis today. However, there have been a number of unexpected developments that warrant some commentary. Thanks for bearing with me.) Japanese press reports that the BOJ Deputy Governor Amamiya turned down the opportunity to become the next BOJ governor. Instead, next week, former BOJ board member Kazuo Ueda will be nominated. The market reacted dramatically, taking the yen sharply higher...

Read More »

US Interest Rate Adjustment Post-Jobs is Over as the 2-Year Yield Backs Away from 4.50%

2023-02-09

by

2023-02-09

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly....

Read More »

Markets Calm after Dramatic Swings on Powell’s Comments

2023-02-08

by

2023-02-08

The US dollar is mostly trading with a downside bias today against the G10 and most emerging market currencies. It had begun the week extending the gains spurred by the dramatic jump in nonfarm payrolls and the strong ISM services survey. Market expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy in the first part of this year converged with the Fed's December dot plot. The market now leans toward two more quarter-point hikes this year.

Read More »

No Turn Around, but Consolidation Featured

2023-02-07

by

2023-02-07

Overview:  After large moves yesterday, the capital markets ae quieter today. Stocks are mostly firmer, and the 10-year US yield is a little softer near 3.62%. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively currencies recover, though remain within yesterday's ranges. The euro briefly traded below $1.07, and sterling has been sold through $1.20. That said, a consolidative tone is...

Read More »

Greenback Extends Recovery

2023-02-06

by

2023-02-06

Overview: The honeymoon for risk assets that began the year ended with a bang at the end of last week with the monster US jobs report and the rebound in the service ISM. Disappointing news from several large US tech companies provided extra encouragement. The yen's weakness helped Japanese stocks today, but the other larger bourses in the Asia Pacific area were sold, with losses in Hong Kong, the CSI 300, South Korea, and Taiwan off more than 1%....

Read More »

February 2023

2023-02-04

by

2023-02-04

The new year began amid optimism among investors. Equities and bonds rallied in January, clawing back some losses from last year. The dollar traded heavily, falling against most G10 and emerging market currencies. However, after the February 1 FOMC meeting, the dollar's sell-off exhausted the near-term selling pressure. An upside correction may be seen in the first part of February. We see this as a countertrend move and expect dollar weakness to...

Read More »

The Dollar Pares Yesterday’s Gains but Near-term Change in Sentiment may be at Hand

2023-02-03

by

2023-02-03

Overview: The dollar remained firm yesterday, even after the ECB's hawkish stance, reaffirming its intention to hike rates by another 50 bp next month. We had expected the greenback to have been sold in North America yesterday. That this did not materialize warns that despite its pullback in Asia and especially Europe today, that near-term sentiment may be changing with the Fed and ECB meetings over and die cast for next month, where the Fed is...

Read More »

North America likely will Sell USD Bounce Seen in Europe

2023-02-02

by

2023-02-02

Overview: The failure of the Federal Reserve to push harder against the market's dovish views and the easing of financial conditions encouraged a risk-on trade that saw the dollar and yields slump and equities rally. There has been limited follow-through dollar selling today, and a small recovery ahead of the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings.

Read More »

Will What the Fed Says be More Important than What it Does?

2023-02-01

by

2023-02-01

Overview:  The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve today. There is nearly universal agreement that it will lift the target by 25 bp. The market is inclined to see the shift as a sign that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, and sees, at most, one more quarter-point hike. Despite the Fed's warnings, including in the December FOMC minutes, about the premature easing of financial conditions, the market has done precisely that.

Read More »

Position Adjustments at Month-End and Ahead of FOMC Outcome Lifts the Greeenback

2023-01-31

by

2023-01-31

Overview: A combination of month-end adjustments and positioning ahead of the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC meeting has taken the shine off equities and has helped lift the dollar. On the heels of yesterday's sharp decline on Wall Street, several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including China's CSI 300, the Hang Seng, and both South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's Taiex fell by more than 1%. Although the eurozone eked out a small expansion in Q4...

Read More »

Anti-Climactic Return of China

2023-01-30

by

2023-01-30

Overview: The re-opening of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday, was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...

Read More »

Week Ahead Alchemy: Can Powell Turn a Quarter-Point Move into a Hawkish Hike?

2023-01-28

by

2023-01-28

The new year is still young, but the week ahead may be one of the most important weeks of the year. The divergence that the market has been anticipating will materialize. The Federal Reserve will most likely hike by 25 bp on Wednesday, followed by half-point moves by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England the following day. On Friday, February 3, the US will report its January employment situation. It could be the slowest job creation...

Read More »

Bannockburn World Currency Index Recoups 50% of Loss since June 2021 High, with Golden Cross

2023-01-27

by

2023-01-27

The Bannockburn’s World Currency Index (BWCI) is a GDP-weighted currency basket representing the currencies of the top 12 economies, with the eurozone counted as one. The US is the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s share of the index is almost 31%. China is the second-largest economy and has a nearly 22% weight. The euro is next with a 19% weight, followed by Japan with about a 7.5% weight. After that, the weights drop off to less than 5%...

Read More »