Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Anti-Climactic Return of China

2023-01-30

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2023-01-30

Overview: The re-opening of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday, was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...

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Week Ahead Alchemy: Can Powell Turn a Quarter-Point Move into a Hawkish Hike?

2023-01-28

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2023-01-28

The new year is still young, but the week ahead may be one of the most important weeks of the year. The divergence that the market has been anticipating will materialize. The Federal Reserve will most likely hike by 25 bp on Wednesday, followed by half-point moves by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England the following day. On Friday, February 3, the US will report its January employment situation. It could be the slowest job creation...

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Bannockburn World Currency Index Recoups 50% of Loss since June 2021 High, with Golden Cross

2023-01-27

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2023-01-27

The Bannockburn’s World Currency Index (BWCI) is a GDP-weighted currency basket representing the currencies of the top 12 economies, with the eurozone counted as one. The US is the world’s largest economy and the dollar’s share of the index is almost 31%. China is the second-largest economy and has a nearly 22% weight. The euro is next with a 19% weight, followed by Japan with about a 7.5% weight. After that, the weights drop off to less than 5%...

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Subdued Ending to a Quiet Week, Ahead of Next Week’s Fireworks

2023-01-27

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2023-01-27

Overview: Leaving aside the Australian dollar, which is benefiting from the optimism over China's re-opening and a reassessment of the trajectory of monetary policy after a stronger than expected inflation report, the other G10 currencies traded quietly this week and are +/- less than 0.5%. The risk-on honeymoon to start the year remains intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen every day this week and index of mainland shares that trade in...

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Euro Closed above $1.09 but Follow-Through Buying Limited

2023-01-26

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2023-01-26

Overview: After some intraday penetration, the euro finally settled above $1.09 yesterday. However, follow-through buying has been limited and technical and option-related resistance is seen in the $1.0940-50 area. The dollar is more broadly mixed today, with the dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone leading the advancers. The euro, yen, and sterling are nursing small losses near midday in Europe. The recovery of US equity indices yesterday after gap...

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Bank of Canada may say Pause, but the Market Hears Finished

2023-01-25

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2023-01-25

Overview: Amid sharp losses in the US equity futures, the US dollar is mostly firmer against the G10 currencies. The notable exception is the Australian dollar, where high-than-expected inflation boosts the risk of a more aggressive central bank.

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No Follow-Through Euro Buying while S&P Holds Yesterday’s Breakout

2023-01-24

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2023-01-24

Overview:  A quiet consolidative session has been recorded so far today as North American leadership is awaited. The preliminary PMI readings are mixed. Japan and the eurozone look somewhat better, but Australia and the UK disappointed.  The dollar is trading with a mostly firmer bias, but largely confined to yesterday's ranges.  The markets seem to be looked ahead toward next week's Fed, ECB, and BOE meetings, and the return of China from this...

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Euro Pokes Above $1.09. Will it be Sustained?

2023-01-23

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2023-01-23

Overview: The Lunar New Year holiday has shut many centers in Asia until the middle of the week, though China's mainland is on holiday all week. The signaling of a downshift in the pace of Fed tightening by some notable hawks helped lift risk appetites ahead of the weekend and saw the S&P 500 snap a four-day decline.

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Are We Still on the New Year Honeymoon? A Look at the Week Ahead

2023-01-21

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2023-01-21

There are several macro highlights in the week ahead, during which Chinese markets are closed for the Lunar New Year celebration. The preliminary January purchasing managers surveys pose headline risk. However, the survey data, for example, had the US composite below the 50 boom/bust level every month in H2 22, which likely overstates the case, as the first look at Q4 22 US GDP will probably show. While some improvement is expected, composite PMI...

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Dismal UK Retail Sales Weigh on Sterling, While the Yen Softens

2023-01-20

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2023-01-20

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today against the G10 currencies, with the notable exception, yen, Swiss franc, and sterling. The risk-on mood is seen in the foreign exchange market with the Antipodean and Scandi currencies leading the move against the greenback. The yen has fallen by about 1.3% this week, leading losers, while sterling's 1.1% gain puts it at the top. Despite the poor showing of US equities yesterday, risk appetites...

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Poor US Data Cast Doubts on New Found Hopes of a Soft-Landing

2023-01-19

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2023-01-19

Overview:  Yesterday's string of dismal US economic data delivered a material blow to those still thinking that a soft-landing was possible. Retail sales by the most in the a year. Manufacturing output fell by nearly 2.5% in the last two months of 2022. Bad economic news weighed on US stocks. The honeymoon of New Year may have ended yesterday. The US 10-year yield fell below 3.40% for the first time since the middle of last September. The Atlanta...

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The BOJ Surprises by Standing Pat

2023-01-18

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2023-01-18

Overview: The BOJ defied speculation and stuck to its current policy, which saw the yen sell-off sharply. The dollar rallied about 3.4 yen before falling back. The greenback is broadly lower against the other G10 currencies. However, for the fifth consecutive session, the euro has stalled around $1.0870. While UK headline inflation softened, mostly due to fuel, core prices were unchanged, and this may have helped sterling extend its recent gains to...

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With Trepidation, the Market Awaits the BOJ

2023-01-17

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2023-01-17

With the market nearly ruling out a 50 bp hike by the Federal Reserve on February 1, the interest rate adjustment appears to have largely run its course. This may be helping to ease the selling pressure on the greenback.

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Monday and Beyond

2023-01-16

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2023-01-16

Monday Ranges: Euro: $1.0802-$1.0874JPY/$: JPY127.23-JPY128.87GBP: $1.2172-$1.2289CAD/$: CAD1.3353-CAD1.3418AUD: $0.6941-$0.7019MXN/$: MXN18.7313-MXN18.8566Rumors of an emergency BOJ meeting sent the dollar to its lows in Tokyo, slightly below the pre-weekend low (~JPY127.46). The on-the-run (most current) 10-year yield settled above the 0.50% cap and the generic 10-year bond has not traded below the 0.50% level since January 5. The market...

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On Our Radar Screen for the Week Ahead

2023-01-14

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2023-01-14

The week ahead is chock full of data, including Japan, the UK, and Australia's CPI. The UK and Australia report on the labor market. The US, UK, and Canada also report retail sales. The early Fed surveys from New York and Philadelphia for January will be released.

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Dollar Index Gives Back Half of 21-Month Gains in 3 1/2 Months

2023-01-13

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2023-01-13

Overview: The continued easing of US price pressures has strengthened the market's conviction that the Federal Reserve will further slow the pace of rate hikes and that the terminal rate will be near 5.0%. The decline in US rates has removed a key support for the US dollar, which has fallen against all the G10 currencies this week. The Dollar Index has now retraced half of what it gained since bottoming on January 6, 2021. Meanwhile, there are...

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Is it Too Easy to Think the Market Repeats its Reaction to a Soft US CPI?

2023-01-12

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2023-01-12

The market expects a soft US CPI print today, which has recently been associated with risk-on moves. The US 10-year yield is holding slightly above 3.50%, the lowest end of the range since the middle of last month. The two-year yield is a little above 4.20%, also the lower end of its recent range. Most observers see the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of its hikes to a quarter point on February 1.

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Greenback Consolidates Near Recent Lows Ahead of Tomorrow’s US CPI

2023-01-11

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2023-01-11

Overview: Fed Chair Powell did not push against the easing of US financial conditions when he ostensibly had an opportunity yesterday. This coupled with expectations of another decline in the US CPI, which will be reported tomorrow, has kept the greenback mostly consolidating the losses seen last Friday and Monday.

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Consolidative Tone in FX

2023-01-10

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2023-01-10

Overview: After sharp losses yesterday, the US dollar has stabilized today arguably ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Riksbank symposium. Yesterday's Fed speakers stuck to the hawkish rhetoric, and this seemed to help reverse the equity market gains, though the greenback remained soft.

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Greenback’s Sell-off may Stall Ahead of Powell Tomorrow

2023-01-09

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2023-01-09

Overview: Don't fight the Fed went the manta as the market took the US two-year yield back up to 4.50% in the aftermath of the FOMC minutes last week, the highest in over a month. The minutes warned of a premature easing of financial conditions. And then bam, softer than expected hourly earnings and a weak service PMI and bonds and stocks rallied, and the dollar was sold. This is a key part of the backdrop for this week, for which several Fed...

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