Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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Business Travel

2023-09-13

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2023-09-13

Business travel will prevent me from updating the blog for a few days.  And instead of the usual weekly, I will provide a sketch of the six G10 central banks that meet next week and a couple of interesting emerging market central banks.

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Heightened Speculation of an ECB Hike Tomorrow Fails to Lend the Euro Support

2023-09-13

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2023-09-13

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a firmer bias against all the G10 currencies ahead today's August US CPI report. Even increased speculation that the ECB will hike rates tomorrow has failed to lift the euro, while a larger than expected contraction in the UK's July GDP pushed sterling briefly through last week's lows. The dollar rose to a marginal new high for the week against the Japanese yen, as the market seemed uninspired by the cabinet...

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Greenback Bought on Pullback

2023-09-12

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2023-09-12

Overview: The dollar was bought after yesterday's pullback spurred by Japanese and Chinese comments and the tighter capital controls from Beijing requiring permission to buy more than $50 mln. The economic and monetary policy divergence continues to underpin the greenback. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies and is mostly inside yesterday's ranges. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by central European currencies. The Chinese...

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In Uncoordinated Steps, Japan and China Help Slow Greenback’s Rally

2023-09-11

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2023-09-11

Overview: The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda hinted the world's third-largest economy may exit negative interest rates before the end of the year. This sparked the strongest gain in the yen in a couple of months and lifted the 10-year yield to nearly 0.70%. In an uncoordinated fashion, Chinese officials stepped their rhetoric and indicated that corporate orders to sell $50 mln or more will need authorization. This helped arrest the yuan's slide. The...

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Week Ahead: US CPI to Make the Doves Cry even if Core Eases, and Euro Vulnerable to ECB Regardless of Decision

2023-09-09

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2023-09-09

The diverging economic performance between the US and Europe, Japan, and China on the other hand is stark. Yet, a greater divergence may be between widespread discussion of de-dollarization and its incredible strength in the foreign exchange market. The eight-week rally in the Dollar Index is the longest in nine years. According to SWIFT, which is not comprehensive but remains by far the largest platform, the dollar's role in international payments...

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Yuan Sulks in to the Weekend, While Finishing Touches are Put on the Dollar Index’s Eighth Consecutive Weekly Gain

2023-09-08

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2023-09-08

Overview: The greenback is lower against most currencies today as it consolidates ahead of the weekend. The Dollar Index's eight-week advance is the longest since a 12-week rally 2014. The Chinese yuan is an exception. Its losses were extended today. Against the offshore yuan, the dollar traded above the onshore band, which is most often respected. Equities ae extending this week's slump. All the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region but India...

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Battle for $1.07 in the Euro

2023-09-07

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2023-09-07

Overview: Despite disappointing German industrial output, where the 0.8% decline was twice expectations, the euro is holding above $1.07, where large options exist that are expiring over the next few sessions. The greenback is consolidating against the Japanese yen, where the fear of intervention has increased. Sterling remains on its back foot after yesterday's seemingly dovish comments by Bank of England Governor Bailey. Emerging market...

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The Dollar and Oil Steady After Yesterday’s Advance

2023-09-06

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2023-09-06

Overview: Bonds and stocks are mostly heavier today and the dollar has turned mixed. Oil prices are consolidating after soaring to new highs since late last year on the longer than expected extension of Saudi Arabia's extra cut of one million barrels a day. Since July, it has been extending it by one month at a time. Yesterday, it extended it through Q4. Russia, who had previously indicated intentions on reducing its exports by 500k barrels,...

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US Dollar Punches Higher

2023-09-05

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2023-09-05

Overview:  Disappointing data in Asia and Europe has sent the greenback broadly higher. The strong gains posted before the weekend were mostly consolidated yesterday when the US and Canadian markets were on holiday. The rally resumed today. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been hit the hardest (-0.7% to -1.25%) but all the G10 currencies are down. The Swiss franc and yen are off the least (-0.35%-0.45%), and the euro and sterling have taken out...

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September 2023 Monthly

2023-09-02

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2023-09-02

There is a sense of new divergence. Most economists, including the staff at the Federal Reserve, no longer think the US is recession-bound. Unprecedented in modern times, inflation has fallen sharply, and unemployment has not risen, and the economy appears to be enjoying its third consecutive quarter, and the fourth in the past five, above what the Federal Reserve regards as the non-inflationary pace (1.8%). At the same time, and despite being...

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China’s Measures Begin to Find Traction, US Employment Report on Tap

2023-09-01

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2023-09-01

Overview: Beijing's seemingly steady stream of measures to support the economy and steady the yuan are beginning to produce the desired effect. The yuan is snapping a four-week decline and the CSI 300 halted a three-week drop. Some economists estimate that the bevy of measures may be worth as much as 1% for GDP. The dollar is narrowly mixed ahead of the US employment data, which is expected to see the pace of job growth slow to around 170k. Of...

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Position Squaring Ahead of US Data Helps the Dollar Recoup Some Recent Losses

2023-08-31

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2023-08-31

Overview: Position-squaring ahead of today's US personal consumption data and perhaps tomorrow's jobs report is giving the dollar a firmer profile against most G10 and emerging market currencies. The Scandis have been the hit hardest and are off 0.75%-0.85%. The euro and sterling about 0.35%-0.45% lower. The yen is the only G10 currency that is slightly firmer. The dollar-bloc is nursing small losses (0.10%-0.15%). Despite the firmer than expected...

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Market Awaits US Data and Leadership

2023-08-30

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2023-08-30

Overview:  The dollar staged a major technical reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs report than expected, spurring a large drop in US interest rates. And this is despite press reports that the participation rate in the survey is half of what was three years ago. We suspect the price action said as much about market positioning as it did about the data. The path to the US jobs data on Friday goes through...

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Still No Follow-Through Dollar Buying After Last Week’s Surge

2023-08-29

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2023-08-29

Overview: The dollar was threatening to break higher at the end of last week, and the euro and sterling closed below key supports. However, so far this week, the greenback is consolidating and has not seen follow-through buying. The key data this week, US consumption and jobs, and the eurozone's CPI still lay ahead. The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone enjoy a firmer today. A 0.8% contraction in Sweden's Q2 GDP was not as deep as had been feared,...

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Dollar Consolidates as Market Considers Breakout and Rebuffs Beijing’s Latest Efforts

2023-08-28

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2023-08-28

Overview: Many market participants sense an inflection point is near. The dollar settled last week beyond key levels against several major currencies, bolstered by higher short-term US rates. The market is aware that the Bank of Japan could intervene in the foreign exchange market with the trading near its best levels of the year, and the 10-year JGB yield grinding higher. Beijing cut the tax on equity transactions, will restrict IPOs, and urged...

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Week Ahead: Slowing US Jobs and Softening EMU Inflation

2023-08-26

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2023-08-26

The Jackson Hole symposium marks the end of summer just as much as the autumn equinox next month. It has been a tough few months for bond markets as yields have soared. For the US economy, which has proven more resilient than many, including Fed officials thought, and a sharp increase in anticipated supply of Treasuries, the rise in yields may be understandable. The rise in Japanese government bond yields may also make sense given the rise in...

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Dollar Bid and Rates Firm Ahead of Powell

2023-08-25

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2023-08-25

Overview: The euro and sterling took out important chart levels near $1.08 and $1.26, respectively. They have steadied in the European morning but remain fragile ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. A couple of ECB officials sounded a bit hawkish and a less hawkish comment by ECB President Lagarde could renew the pressure on the euro. The market appears to be going into Powell's speech with a hawkish bias and the odds of a hike next...

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BRICS to Expand a Little, USD Steadies after Yesterday’s Retreat, Attention Turns to Jackson Hole

2023-08-24

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2023-08-24

Overview: Strong Nvidia's earnings after the US markets closed yesterday helped lift Asia Pacific markets today. All the large bourses were higher but India. Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan indices rose more than 1%. Europe's Stoxx 600 is higher for the fourth consecutive session and US index futures are higher, led by the NASDAQ. European benchmark bond yields have extended yesterday's PMI-induced decline and are mostly 1-2 bp lower. The...

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Euro and Sterling Slump on Poor PMI

2023-08-23

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2023-08-23

Overview: Poor European flash PMI pushed on open door, giving the market a new reason to do what it was doing and that buying the dollar. The euro has approached important support around $1.08 and sterling is approaching the lower end of its two-cent trading range (~$1.26-$1.28). The greenback is consolidating against the yen and holding above JPY145. The Chinese yuan is little changed while the Mexican peso is extending yesterday's gains. Despite...

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Dollar Eases, Stocks and Bonds Advance

2023-08-22

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2023-08-22

Overview: For the first time in more than a week, North American dealers will take to their posts with the dollar softer against all the G10 and most of the emerging market currencies. Despite stepped up efforts by Chinese officials and a firmer yen, the yuan remains on the defensive and is one of the handful of emerging market currencies softer on the day. Stocks and bonds are mostly higher too. The yuan might not be benefitting from a softer...

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