Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Japan’s Q4 23 Contraction Revised Away, Helping Keep Yen Bid

2024-03-11

by

2024-03-11

Overview: News that the Japanese economy expanded rather than contracted in Q4 23 has fanned expectations that rates could be as early as next week. This is helping keep the yen supported, though it remains in the pre-weekend range, albeit barely.

Read More »

Week Ahead: Will Firm Headline US CPI and a Recovery in Retail Sales Help the Dollar Recover?

2024-03-09

by

2024-03-09

When everything was said and done last week, the market did not change its mind. There was still a better than 90% chance that the Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut in June. Fed Chair Powell told Congress that the central bank was not far from the level of confidence needed to cut rates.

Read More »

Forex Becalmed with the Greenback Mostly Firmer in Narrow Ranges

2024-03-05

by

2024-03-05

(Business trip will interrupt the commentary over the next few days.  Check out the March monthly here.  Back with the Week Ahead on March 9. May have some comments on X @marcmakingsense.) Overview: Outside of the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are off by 0.20%-0.25%, the other G10 currencies are little changed and mostly softer in narrow ranges. A firm Tokyo CPI, mostly on base effects and softer rates helped keep the US dollar below...

Read More »

Narrowly Mixed Dollar to Start the Big Week for Europe and North America

2024-03-04

by

2024-03-04

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies to begin the week that features a Bank of Canada and ECB meetings, US jobs data, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's two-day testimony before Congress, and US President Biden's State of the Union address.

Read More »

March 2024 Monthly

2024-03-02

by

2024-03-02

Rarely are officials able to achieve the proverbial economic soft-landing when higher interest rates help cool price pressures without triggering a significant rise in unemployment or a contraction.

Read More »

Ueda’s Comments Knock the Yen Back, while the Euro Flirts with $1.08

2024-03-01

by

2024-03-01

Overview: The US dollar is mixed today. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Scandis are enjoying a slightly firmer tone, while the euro and sterling are edging higher in European turnover.

Read More »

Yen Pops on BOJ Comments on Inflation, but the Dollar holds Most of Yesterday’s Gains against the other G10 Currencies

2024-02-29

by

2024-02-29

The dollar is mixed as the market awaits the US personal consumption expenditure deflator, which is the measure of inflation the Fed targets. While there is headline risk, we argue that the signal has already been generated by the CPI and PPI releases.

Read More »

Dollar Jumps

2024-02-28

by

2024-02-28

Overview: A less hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a slightly softer than expected January CPI from Australia appears to have sparked a broad US dollar rally.

Read More »

Weak US Durable Goods may Herald Pullback in Capex

2024-02-27

by

2024-02-27

Most of the G10 currencies are trading quietly in narrow ranges today. After a slightly firmer than expected national CPI reading, which still moderated, and a pullback in US yields, the Japanese yen is the strongest of the major currencies.

Read More »

Euro Bid in Europe but Unlikely to Sustain Gains Through North America

2024-02-26

by

2024-02-26

Overview: The dollar is beginning the new week mixed. The dollar-bloc currencies and Japanese yen are softer while the European currencies enjoy a firmer today. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies are trading with higher. The Turkish lira is the notable exception. It is the weakest currency today, off about 0.65%. The Chinese yuan is a little softer, but the dollar continues to be capped near CNY7.20. Last week, more often...

Read More »

Week Ahead: With the Markets Converging (Again) with Fed’s Dots, Is the Interest Rate Adjustment Over?

2024-02-24

by

2024-02-24

The US dollar and interest rates appear to be at an inflection point. Much of the past several weeks have been about correcting the overshoot that took place in  Q4 23, when the derivatives markets were pricing in nearly seven quarter-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

Read More »

While the Greenback has Tended to be Sold in Asia this Week, it has Recovered in North America

2024-02-23

by

2024-02-23

Overview: Amid a light news stream, the dollar is mostly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. Leaving aside the Norwegian krone, the others in a +/- 0.15% against the dollar today. We note that the technical tone of the euro and sterling have improved withe the five-day moving averages crossing above the 20-day moving averages. On the other hand, the dollar is approaching the year's low set last week near JPY150.90. Emerging market...

Read More »

Risk On, Dollar Sold

2024-02-22

by

2024-02-22

Overview: The post-close rally in US tech stocks after Nvidia's earnings has fueled risk-on activity today. The Nikkei closed at record highs with a 2.2% rally. China's CSI rose for the eighth consecutive session as official discourage sales at the open and close, and short sales in general. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up more than 0.5% to recoup the small losses seen in the last two sessions. US indices are poised to gap higher at the open. Benchmark...

Read More »

China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session

2024-02-21

by

2024-02-21

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North American session features minutes...

Read More »

Dollar Slips but Dip may Offer New Opportunity

2024-02-20

by

2024-02-20

Overview: The US dollar is offered today. It is trading softer against all the G10 currencies, with the yen the notable exception, and it is flat. The Antipodean are leading the way, taking out last week's highs, as has the euro. That said, the intraday momentum indicators are stretched as NY dealers return from the long holiday weekend. The Scandis are also trading above last week's highs. The yen, sterling, Canadian dollar, and Swiss franc are...

Read More »

China Returns, the US is on Holiday, and the Dollar Consolidates

2024-02-19

by

2024-02-19

Overview: US markets are closed for President's Day, while China's markets re-opened from the long Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland stocks advanced, while the yuan slipped slightly. The US dollar is mostly softer but in narrow ranges. The Antipodeans and yen lead, while the Swiss franc the only G10 currency that is slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies are lower, led by about a 0.5% loss of the South African rand. The Mexican peso's and...

Read More »

Week Ahead: China Returns and Flash PMI Featured after US Rate Adjustment was Extended

2024-02-17

by

2024-02-17

The US January CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected and this extended the recovery in US interest rates. In turn that helped underpin the dollar. We do not think the data itself changes the Fed's stance. At least seven Fed officials speaking in the coming days will test this hypothesis. There are still several key reports before the data dependent FOMC meets again in about four weeks.

Read More »

Quiet End to a Busy Week

2024-02-16

by

2024-02-16

Overview:  The US dollar is winding down this week on a quiet note. Most of the G10 currencies are trading within yesterday's ranges. On the week, only the Scandis are set to close with gains, though with a little effort, the Australian dollar could too. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are the laggards off 0.65%-0.75% this week. Most emerging market currencies outside of central Europe are firmer. The South African rand is the strongest this...

Read More »

Divergence Highlighted by Back-to-Back Quarterly Contractions in Japan and the UK but Little FX Reaction

2024-02-15

by

2024-02-15

Overview: There has been a string of disappointing economic news today. Japan's economy surprisingly contracted in Q4 23 and the Q3 contraction was a little deeper than initially estimates. Australia's jobs growth was weaker than expected and unemployment rose to 4.1%, matching the highest since November 2021.

Read More »

Japanese Officials Weigh-In and Help Yen Stabilize, while Euro and Sterling Extend Losses

2024-02-14

by

2024-02-14

Overview: The market's reaction to the firmer than expected January CPI seems exaggerated. We do not think it was the game-changer for the Federal Reserve that the market seemed to think. The dollar was driven higher, and it is stabilizing today, though the euro and sterling extended their losses, most of the other G10 currencies did not. After the yen's six-week slide did not elicit a response from Japanese officials, yesterday's drop did, and...

Read More »