Category Archive: 6b) Austrian Economics

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US Stock Market – The Flight to Fantasy

2018-03-22

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2018-03-22

US S&P 500 Large Cap Index, NDX Daily and NYA Daily, Mar 2017 - 2018
The chart formation built in the course of the early February sell-off and subsequent rebound continues to look ominous, so we are closely watching the proceedings. There are now numerous new divergences in place that clearly represent a major warning signal for the stock market. For example, here is a chart comparing the SPX to the NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) and the broad-based NYA (NYSE Composite Index).

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The Disaster that is the Third World | Jayant Bhandari

2018-03-19

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Jayant is a contributing editor of the Liberty magazine and has written for the Mises Institute, the Mises Institute (Canada), Casey Research, Le Québécois Libre, Sprott’s Thoughts, LewRockwell.com, etc. This speech was given at the Capitalism & Morality seminar in Vancouver, Canada, on Saturday, 29 July 2017. http://jayantbhandari.com/capitalism-morality-2017/ Jayant Bhandari – How Emerging Really are …

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Despondency in Silver-Land

2018-03-16

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2018-03-16

Silver Daily, Oct 2016 - Mar 2018
Over the past several years we have seen a few amazing moves in futures positioning in a number of commodities, such as e.g. in crude oil, where the by far largest speculative long positions in history have been amassed. Over the past year it was silver’s turn. In April 2017, large speculators had built up a record net long position of more than 103,000 contracts in silver futures with the metal trading at $18.30.

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Hayek and the denationalisation of money, with Claudio Grass

2018-03-15

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On Show 20 of the MisesUK.Org podcast, regular host Andy Duncan spoke with Claudio Grass, a Mises Ambassador for the Mises Institute and a precious metals advisor based in Switzerland, about Hayek’s ideas on the denationalisation of money. These stem from Hayek’s book on this subject first published in 1976. They focussed on the removal …

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Dirk Müller – Unglaublich! Merkels Krönungszeremonie

2018-03-14

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“Machtbeben” – Das neue Buch von Dirk Müller – Jetzt überall im Vorverkauf: https://bit.ly/2zv3oOk Auszug aus dem Cashkurs.com-Tagesausblick vom 14.03.2018. https://www.cashkurs.com – Ihre unabhängige Finanzinformationsplattform zu den Themen Börse, Wirtschaft, Finanzmarkt von und mit Dirk Müller Bildrechte: Cashkurs.com & …. / Shutterstock.com

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Stock and Bond Markets – The Augustine of Hippo Plea

2018-03-13

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2018-03-13

Hippo Magic
Most fund managers are in an unenviable situation nowadays (particularly if they have a long only mandate). On the one hand, they would love to get an opportunity to buy assets at reasonable prices. On the other hand, should asset prices actually return to levels that could be remotely termed “reasonable”, they would be saddled with staggering losses from their existing exposure. Or more precisely: their investors would be saddled with staggering...

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US Equities – Mixed Signals Battling it Out

2018-03-10

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2018-03-10

S&P 500 New High Lows Percent, Feb 2015 - Apr 2018
Readers may recall that we looked at various market internals after the sudden sell-offs in August 2015 and January 2016 in order to find out if any of them had provided clear advance warning. One that did so was the SPX new highs/new lows percent index (HLP). Below is the latest update of this indicator.

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Behind the Scenes – Ein Tag mit Dirk Müller

2018-03-09

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“Machtbeben” – Das neue Buch von Dirk Müller – Jetzt überall im Vorverkauf: https://bit.ly/2zv3oOk Dirk Müller wurde einen Tag mit der Handycam begleitet und das Ganze dann zu einer kleinen Tagesimpression zusammenfasst. Wenn Ihnen das gefällt, machen wir das gerne öfter, wir probieren das einfach mal aus. https://www.cashkurs.com – Ihre unabhängige Finanzinformationsplattform zu den Themen …

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Dirk Müller – Handelskrieg als möglicher Crash-Auslöser – und Trump als Buhmann

2018-03-08

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“Machtbeben” – Das neue Buch von Dirk Müller – Jetzt überall im Vorverkauf: https://bit.ly/2zv3oOk Auszug aus dem Cashkurs.com-Tagesausblick vom 07.03.2018. https://www.cashkurs.com – Ihre unabhängige Finanzinformationsplattform zu den Themen Börse, Wirtschaft, Finanzmarkt von und mit Dirk Müller Bildrechte: Cashkurs.com & Lightspring / Shutterstock.com

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Trade Wars and Trump’s Trade Tariffs, with Ryan McMaken

2018-03-07

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Tonight, on Show 19 of the MisesUK.Org podcast, regular host Andy Duncan spoke with Ryan McMaken, who is editor of both ‘Mises Wire’ and ‘The Austrian’, at the Mises Institute, in Auburn, Alabama, as well as the host on ‘Radio Rothbard’. They spoke about trade wars, trade tariffs, and other such matters, particularly in regard …

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US Stock Market: Conspicuous Similarities with 1929, 1987 and Japan in 1990

2018-03-07

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2018-03-07

S&P 500 Large Cap Index, Apr 2015 - Mar 2018
There are good reasons to suspect that the bull market in US equities has been stretched to the limit. These include inter alia: high fundamental valuation levels, as e.g. illustrated by the Shiller P/E ratio (a.k.a. “CAPE”/ cyclically adjusted P/E); rising interest rates; and the maturity of the advance. Near the end of a bull market cycle there is always the question of when a decline will begin, and above all, how large will it be.

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Dirk Müller – Lasst den Bullen los! Vom Sparer zum Aktionär

2018-03-07

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„Lasst den Bullen los! Vom Sparer zum Aktionär“ – Das ist der Titel meiner neuen Live-Show, die wir zusammen mit Deutschlands größtem Event-Veranstalter Semmel Concerts entwickelt haben. http://bit.ly/Lasst_den_Bullen_los Das Sparbuch ist tot, Aktien die beste Alternative. Doch wie investiere ich richtig? Wie funktioniert das überhaupt? Was muss ich beachten? Wann ist der richtige Zeitpunkt? Wie …

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Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

2018-03-04

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2018-03-04

US Durable Goods Orders, Jan 2013 - 2018
New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading.

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Purchasing Power Parity or Nominal Exchange Rates?

2018-03-03

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2018-03-03

Big Mac Index
“An alternative exchange rate – the purchasing power parity (PPP) conversion factor – is preferred because it reflects differences in price levels for both tradable and non-tradable goods and services and therefore provides a more meaningful comparison of real output.” – the World Bank

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Cashkurs*Trends – Die Arbeitswelt der Zukunft mit Dirk Müller

2018-03-02

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Mitschnitt des Cashkurs*Trends-Webinars vom 02.03.2018. Dirk Müller, Andreas Meyer & Charttechniker André Rain sprechen über die Trends von Morgen und darüber, welche Unternehmen in den entstehenden Märkten besonders profitieren werden. Als Jubiläumsangebot erhalten Sie zum Erscheinen unserer 100. Ausgabe, bei Abschluss eines 1-Monats-Abos von Cashkurs-Trends.de, den ersten Monat mit 100% Rabatt. Das heißt, Sie erhalten …

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Socialism and Capital Consumption

2018-03-02

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2018-03-02

A Soviet Propaganda Poster
We have been promising to get back to the topic of capital destruction, which we put on hiatus for the last several weeks to make our case that the interest rate remains in a falling trend. Today, we have a different way of looking at capital destruction.

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Dirk Müller – Dieselfahrverbot: Was soll der Unsinn?!?

2018-03-01

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Auszug aus dem Cashkurs.com-Tagesausblick vom 28.02.2018. Sehen Sie den kompletten Tagesausblick auf Cashkurs.com und erhalten Sie werbefreien Zugriff auf alle Premiuminhalte inkl. Beiträgen und Videos: http://bit.ly/ck-registrieren “Machtbeben” – Das neue Buch von Dirk Müller – Jetzt überall im Vorverkauf: https://bit.ly/2zv3oOk https://www.cashkurs.com – Ihre unabhängige Finanzinformationsplattform zu den Themen Börse,...

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Dirk Müller – Merkel sollte lieber dafür sorgen, dass es nicht Tafeln nicht benötigt!

2018-02-28

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“Machtbeben” – Das neue Buch von Dirk Müller – Jetzt überall im Vorverkauf: https://bit.ly/2zv3oOk Auszug aus dem Cashkurs.com-Tagesausblick vom 28.02.2018. https://www.cashkurs.com – Ihre unabhängige Finanzinformationsplattform zu den Themen Börse, Wirtschaft, Finanzmarkt von und mit Dirk Müller Bildrechte: Cashkurs.com & alexkich / Shutterstock.com

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Haunted by Ghosts of the Old Eastern Bloc

2018-02-27

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2018-02-27

Powell Takes Yellens Office
Jerome Powell, the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, just completed his third week on the job. He’s hardly had enough time to learn how to operate the office coffee maker, let alone the all-in-one printer. He still doesn’t know what roach coach menu items induce a heinous gut bomb.

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Update on the Modified Davis Method

2018-02-26

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2018-02-26

Nasdaq
Frank Roellinger has updated us with respect to the signals given by his Modified Ned Davis Method (MDM) in the course of the recent market correction. The MDM is a purely technical trading system designed for position-trading the Russell 2000 index, both long and short (for details and additional color see The Modified Davis Method and Reader Question on the Modified Ned Davis Method).

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