(9/24/22) Markets did not respond well to Jerome Powell’s statements following this week’s FOMC meeting and rate hike. The question now is how far the Fed will go in its inflation fight. What does going long on Treasuries by Institutional investors tell us now? ESG underperformance is causing headaches for Calpers; what happens when political agendas run afoul of investing agendas. Study: Companies with high value also tend to have high carbon footprints. Jamie Dimon’s 180 on Cryptocurrency: Decentralized Ponzi Scheme. The importance of Money Scripting in raising money smart kids: Save, Share, Spend. Investing with the Beave: That time Ward taught Wally & Beaver about investing, and that rascal, Eddie Haskell. Linking investments to real-life; Custodial Roth IRA’s.

0:52 – How Far will

(9/22/22) The Fed jacked rates up 75-basis points, as expected, and held out the possibility of at least two more rate hikes this year. The thing that shocked markets was the implication by Jerome Powell that higher rates would be here to stay throughout 2023, barring a recession or credit-related event that might cause the Fed to reverse policy. Markets in response sold off, taking out lows established back in May, an important support level we’ve been watching. As sentiment sours, and markets sell-off, conditions are ripening for a counter-trend rally. The 20-MDA has crossed over the 50-DMA, so any rally back towards 4,000 on the S&P would appear to be a good exit point for investors to trim risk and raise cash.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO

(9/22/22) It’s a Trifecta Thursday with the onset of Autumn and the Death of the Roberts’ Duber; the Fed raises rates 75-basis points, as expected, but shocks markets by saying higher rates are here to stay through 2023…unless something occurs to cause a change in stance. The Fed’s "good intentions" vs reality; markets are now on the same page. The impact of higher rates on Bonds: TINA, FOMO, & YOLO in the Bond market; the importance of differentiation in bonds; bonds are a function of economic activity & inflation; Dollar strength is relative; what other currencies are doing, and why the Dollar is the Reserve Currency of the world; are we losing the advantage of the Rule of Law? Bank of Japan’s intervention.

3:17 – Thursday Trifecta
6:16 – Fed Rate Hike
14:38 – The Fed’s Intentions

(9/21/22) The Fed is expected today to raise interest rates by 75-basis points, but the real headline will come from the statement that’s issued after the meeting is over: Will Jerome Powell reiterate his hawkish claims from Jackson Hole, or will he backpedal? That news will drive markets into the afternoon. As the Fed continues its rate hike campaign, Treasuries are responding in kind, and at this point, Bonds are cheaper relative to stocks. (A history of rate hikes is given here.) As rates rise, there is a shift from risk (assets) into less-risky instruments (bonds).

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton
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(9/1/) The Fed is expected to hike interest rates another 75-basis points today. Meanwhile, the Dot Plot, consisting of the FOMC voting members’ positions on interest rates, suggests rates will be at 4.5% by 03, and remain there into 04. Bonds are extremely cheap relative to stocks. This is debunking the TINA (There Is No Alternative) syndrome. As rates rise, those with pensions must consider whether taking monthly distributions or a lump sum is in their best interest. The fallacy of "deficit reduction;" the unintended consequences of government programs, good intentions, and bad outcomes.

0:00 – FOMC Meeting Preview & Dot Plot Predictions
11:10 – Diet Deprivations & Beyond Meat
11:58 – The Inflation Calculations Behind the Fed’s Rate Hikes
7:10 – Pensions & Lump Sum Options – Why

(9/20/22) The latest two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins today; markets rallied off the May support line in anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s remarks tomorrow. It’s expected the Fed will hike rates 75-basis points as it continues to fight inflation by slowing the economy, a phenomenon with which the Fed is apparently comfortable. That means earnings will have to come down even more so than already forecast, putting more pressure on stock prices later this year. The Fed’s goal is to get inflation down from the current 8% range to 2% territory. Expectations are the Fed will continue to raise interest rates up to the +4% level before holding firm, and there’s no guarantee the Fed will immediately begin to lower rates. The only reason the Fed would lower rates would

(9/20/22) It’s turning into a sloppy September for markets, even though support held at May’s lows on Monday. Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, with markets anticipating the group’s next move upward on rates by 75bp. Why is Jerome Powell okay with "below trend" economic growth? The trap of investors’ "anchoring;" the Fed’s view of markets is the only one that counts. Some economic pain is okay…the Fed is going to act in a way that is not friendly to markets. Why the Fed might NOT cut rates; the Fed’s actions and chain of events; does the Buffett Indictor indicate a coming market crash? Buy My House (Shark Tank for Real Estate); why Open Door is losing money; this is how you know you’re at the top of a market. Zillow’s iBuying is geared for volume selling, not profitable deals.

(9/19/22) Markets sold off Friday on a warning from Federal Express suggesting the economy is slowing down much more than folks are letting on. Markets did break through the rising trend line we’ve been watching, but did hold on to support going back to the June-July level. Futures this morning are trending lower with additional selling pressure following last week’s rather vicious sell-off. There still remains some downside risk today, but markets are over-sold short term. Following Friday’s options-expiration selling, there is the possibility of a minor rally, into which investors should sell to rebalance portfolios. The Buy-back Blackout period for the next two weeks will remove some activity from the markets.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO

(9/19/22) A bit of distraction to start the morning with all eyes on the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II; the next meeting of the FOMC is on Wednesday, with expectations for a 75-basis point rate increase already "baked into the cake;" there is concern the Fed could go for a 1% rate hike. Goldman is predicting rates at 4 to 4.25% by the end of the year–hopefully the point at which the Fed will halt rate increases. The Stock Buy-back Blackout period is about to commence, and that activity has made up about 40% of Markets’ total return since 2011. Federal Express’s earnings miss was accompanied by a negative outlook; the Fred Smith Story; when will Amazon be pre-Prime? Is year-over-year portfolio performance comparison a long-enough perspective/

0:00 – Navigating with The Fed

(9/16/22) FedEx’s dire predictions are echoing concern of others on the true health of the economy; delivery services are a bellwether of a coming recession. The Fed is in a box; Wal-Mart: If you want deals, we’re giving you deals. James Taylor, "Inflation is Dead;" Identifying the Tax Torpedo; the bridge strategy of Tax Torpedo diffusion; when companies get hammered, and the opportunity that’s created; America slips in the Global Retirement Index; Lance’s Last Chart NFT.

3:19 – What FedEx’s Dire Report Means
14:31 – James Taylor/"Inflation is Dead" ditty
19:55 – The Tax Torpedo
30:28 – Diffusing the Tax Torpedo
44:37 – When Companies Get Hammered (and create opportunity)
48:52 – Top Retirement Countries & Lance’s Last Graph NFT

Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w

Here is an encore presentation of the September 15, 2022 Lunch & Learn on the FAFSA (Free Application for Student Financial Aid) with Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP, and Senior Risk Management Consultant, Chris Liebum. The FAFSA is a vital, first-step towards securing financial aid, either through loans or grants, for your college bound children.

1:30 – The First Step: Available Tools
2:00 – Don’t Make These Four Big Mistakes
4:50 – Chris’ FAFSA Reviews
5:35 – How Long is This Going to Take?
5:55 – Tips for Properly Preparing to Complete the FAFSA
7:05 – How Many Colleges Can Be Included on the FAFSA?
8:44 – Don’t Leave Money on the Table
9:20 – What to Expect After Filing Your FAFSA
10:32 – Best Practices for Filing Your FAFSA
11:51 – Effectively Dealing with College Guidance

(9/15/22) The Markets’ big 4% drop in markets on news August CPI was 8.3% was the follow up to Monday’s 90% upside day and the "bullish upthrust" in the market. The resulting 90% down day completely reversed markets’ gains, but markets were able to hold on to the rising trendline of higher lows. Futures are weak this morning, so a test of support at last week’s lows will be important today. Add to the mix next week’s FOMC meeting, and the small possibility of a 1% rate hike. More important will be what the Fed says about inflation, and whether or not the rate hikes may continue. Volatility remains compressed, but there does not seem to be much concern about a potential market crash. Much of the Energy over-bought condition has been worked off, and oil prices now have the potential to

(9/15/22) Markets remain in a broad trading range, even as the Fed prepares for next week’s FOMC Meeting: We’re witnessing bear market behavior, grinding down investors. The VIX "fear gauge" is remarkably tame. Oil prices could rally to a range of $90-$95/bbl; Michael Lebowitz’ motto shifts from "Don’t Fight the Fed" to "Follow the Fed," and note its bullish- or bearish-stances. The Fed today (9/15) begins its quantitative tightening. There’s no perceptible change in Fed stance: Get rates as high as needed as fast as possible; today’s inflation is not the same as in the ’70’s; the problem with trailing indicators; What will the Fed do next (and note that they don’t have to wait until the next meeting to move rates.) Investor navigation is a matter of recognizing the trends.

SEG-1:

(9/14/22) August CPI clocks-in at a hotter-than-expected 8.3%, and the financial media goes nuts, claiming yesterday’s sell-off as "markets in turmoil." The reality was, yes, a big 4% sell-off, but a one-day drop that can only be compared to pre-pandemic market action in June of 2020. But more importantly, markets were able to uphold the bullish, rising trend line that has been building for the past few months. That trend will be tested today. The MACD buy-signal was not triggered yesterday, however, keeping downward pressure on the markets. And, despite the sharp sell-off, market volatility remains very muted. There really is no panic or fear in the markets, nor are there outflows of funds; this was not a big catalyst. There certainly are concerns for the future, including the Fed’s

(9/14/22) With the latest CPI print at 8.3%, the odds of bigger interest rate increases by the Fed just got better; markets are still within a rising bottom trendline against a declining line of bullishness: Decision time is coming this week, as volatility remains confined. Inflation actually slowed from this time last year; what if you could get more for your money? Lump-sum Pension or long-term payout? How CPI will impact Social Security COLA adjustments; how inflation will hasten Social Security insolvency; the difference between CPI-W & CPI-E and why it matters. Is Social Security welfare or entitlement? Why solutions for "fixing" Social Security are unelectable. The $96-T un-funded liability. The problem w student loan forgiveness. How Joe Biden’s Stimmie Checks fulfilled our

(9/13/22) The CPI print for August came in at 8.3%, hotter than anticipated. The big question now is whether we’ve seen the peak of inflation? With markets now solely-dependent upon what the Fed does, rather than on fundamentals, a 75-basis point hike later this month is pretty much a lock. In fact, expectations are for the Fed to go up to 4 to 4.5% on the Fed funds rate. Slower economic growth, slower earnings growth, and higher unemployment are the triggers that will cause the Fed to pause, if not begin to reverse rates. There is a disconnect between markets and what’s happening in the economy. Only when the economy worsens will the Fed resort to measures opposite its current stance.
[NOTE: This report was recorded prior to today’s CPI release.]
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment

(9/13/22) All eyes are on today’s CPI Report (clocking-in at 8.3% Inflation) and its effects on the economy: What are the numbers within the number, and why does it matter? What will be the Fed’s response, and what will it take for the Fed to ease up on rate hikes? The dichotomy of views among Bears vs Bulls: the problem of timing and duration; after 3 Bull Markets, why are 80% of Americans still broke? The White Multi-millionaire Minority. Dealing with short-term market-cycles, and thinking ahead of the Fed: What’s the best strategy for Recession? Markets FOMO on potential Fed pivot; trade the market for what it is, not what we wish it was. CPI Preview: Too hot not good for stocks: Fed will continue rate hikes. Has the deficit really been reduced as claimed?

3:03 – The Numbers Within

(9/12/22) Markets last week rallied off support, and are now positioned to move higher with a little pain: There is a rising bullish trend line, continuing the pattern of higher lows since the July bottom. However a corresponding, declining trend line that runs right along the 200-DMA is forming a wedge which will create a short term challenge for markets. A rally to the declining trend line is the most logical course, with short term buy signals emerging and oversold indicators not yet turning to overbought, providing some fuel for markets to move higher. However, a break below the rising trend line would bolster the bearish sentiment, particularly since markets have not factored in the possibility of slower economic growth, slower earnings growth, and an earnings recession potential.

(9/12/22) Markets are working off excesses; most companies are currently doing okay, CEO’s hoping for a "soft landing." The rising bottoms and declining tops are creating a wedge markets will have to painfully resolve. Why there is no such thing as "cash on the sidelines," but there is a dearth of buyers or dearth of sellers. We’re now seeing seller exhaustion; looking at a rally within bearish bias. Animal Sleep Patterns; the unseen impact of energy costs, government bailouts, and the EU economy; the feedback of consumption trends; CEO’s at Goldman Retail Conference see no recession before 2023; effects of Fed’s rate hike series still to be felt in markets. dealing with the complexity of markets; the difference between college and experience.

3:18 – The Pain Trade Seems to Be

(9/9/22) Why Meghan cannot be Queen; The Janet Yellen Economic Roadshow: taxes must return to "norms;" inflation and the "Fair" economy; energy diversification; Brookings Institute: Unemployment must go higher. Understanding the US economy in COVID; Janet Yellen’s EV’s; the fiscal fight; why having cash is not a bad thing; market preview: Gerber Insurance; The Elder Index & cost of Aging; demographics and changes to work habits; the importance of good health in retirement; living single in retirement; The Viral Queen; FAFSA preview; "It’s Complicated" financial dust bunnies; your end of life plan for your pets; pet trusts.

3:17 – Janet Yellen on Taxes, Inflation, & "Fair" Economy
14:32 – Understanding the US Economy in COVID
30:30 – Market Preview; The True Cost of Aging
44:33 – End of

(9/8/22) Markets rallied off important support on Wednesday, but failed at the 50- and 100-DMA’s. However, the market did sustain the rising trend line, with sell signals still in place. This may get us to a point where markets can consolidate to provide another buying opportunity. Markets also held support at May’s lows. Today’s ECB rate hike announcement and the Fed’s policy comments later today will affect markets–we’re expecting a 75bp Fed rate hike later this month. Oil has also been on sell signals and over-sold, but there was a death cross of the 50-DMA below the 200-DMA yesterday, suggesting oil prices could go lower. Prices remain under pressure as demand crumbles from the weight of higher inflation.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO

(9/8/22) Markets continue through a holiday-shortened week; use any rally to reduce portfolio risk; the Fed is not backing-off its hawkish stance, but markets are holding support…so far. The Fed’s hawkish talk of 75bp, with more to come, targeting the 4% range. The ECB is dealing with the same issues as the Fed, plus much higher energy costs. Dealing with the feedback-loop of central bank moves; why dollar strength is a problem for the EU; all currencies are fiat: nothing is "backed" by anything. Liquidity is key; when the dollar tightens, there’s a ripple effect for the entire world; the Fed’s currency swap-line; with the Russian incursion and higher energy prices, the best way to help the EU is with a stronger Euro; inflation is the bane of bond holders.

2:47 – What if the Market

(9/7/22) Markets always operate in either a buying- or selling-stampede, where prices rise incessantly for a period, and then seem to be in a sell-off mode forever; investors are always asking, ‘when will it stop?’ Example: The July lows that led to the August highs. The current selling stampede has been running for 13-days. To keep this in perspective, we’re still above July’s lows…there is a risk of re-testing those lows, certainly, given where we are in the markets and the Fed’s series of rate adjustments. That doesn’t, however, mean that markets would go straight-down; markets do also get exhausted, and these selling stampedes eventually exhaust sellers. Here are indicators we look at to determine when this is could occur.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance

(9/7/22) September markets are underway with buying and selling stampedes; use any rally to reduce risk. If you’re worrying too much about your portfolio, you’re holding too much risk! Looking forward, earnings expectations are still too elevated, and valuations have to come down. A side-by-side look at the ISM vs S&P PMI; geopolitical decisions affect markets. Europe is imploding over high energy costs (thanks, Vladimir!) As the US exports inflation and imports deflation, effects will be felt here. Markets are likely to re-test 50-DMa; Cali power woes is the price of shifting too quickly to "green" energy sources, before a bridge between "dirty" and "clean" energy.

3:15 – Buying & Selling Stampedes
14:34 – Snappy Answers to Stupid Questions
15:49 – The Problem with Divergent Data

(9/6/22) Markets are set to open higher after last week’s sell-off, under pressure from Fed head Jerome Powell’s post-Jackson Hole speech, suggesting more rate hikes, more aggressively, are still to come. Markets tried to challenge that, until Russia threw a wrench into the works, announcing a cut off of natural gas to Europe. This morning’s futures are looking higher, seeking a bit of a rally as markets remain over-sold. Continue to use these rallies to sell into to reduce portfolio risk. Meanwhile, OPEC announced over the weekend a cut in production, proving the half-life of a Biden fist bump is about one month. The cut is no surprise, as oil prices have been under pressure, and OPEC likes those prices kept high. A rally to $95 or $98/bbl would not be surprising, and would create a

(9/6/22) The best thing about this week may be that it’s only four-days long! Liz Truss is the new UK PM, already embattled; the death of BBY CEO; OPEC’s production cut & the half-life of a Biden fist-bump; Russia’s weaponization of natural gas to Europe; Europe’s response to inflation: Do the same things again that caused it; the move from capitalism to more socialistic practices; market valuations and the shift from GAP to Forward Operating Earnings, a.k.a ‘what we wish they were.’ There’s no forthcoming reprieve from Fed interest rate hikes.

2:46 – Liz Truss, BBY SEO Death; The Half-life of a Biden Fist-bump.
14:16 – The Unwinding of the Economy that Created America’s Wealth
30:01 – When Will Things get Back to Normal?
44:08 – The Fed’s Jenga Game

RIA Advisors Chief Investment

In the kind of market where bad news is good news, where do we go from here? The dark side of not allowing business cycle to complete: Recession = Bad; so the market has outrun the economy. Why the Medicare Advantage TV ads have disappeared;

(9/1/22) Cheerleaders singing the praises of a bear market bottom, bullishness abounding, and high prices for equities were back…were wrong. Turns out it was a bear market rally, after an assault on the 200-DMA failed.

(9/1/22) What would happen if markets break through the 50-DMA? We’re treating any market rally as an opportunity to sell and reduce equity risk; parsing Jerome Powell’s post-Jackson Hole comments; bringing pain to households and businesses, and the beginning of the Price-Wage spiral; will the Fed start to pay more attention to employment numbers?

(8/31/22) Tuesday’s Jolt Report showing stronger employment jerked markets to attention with the suggestion the Fed may become even more aggressive in its tightening strategy. However, a closer look at the employment scene reveals labor force participation rates are nothing to crow about.