John Henry Smith

John Henry Smith

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities specializes in the U.S. stock market and offers a unique and powerful advisory service to private investors, institutional investors, and SME asset managers, who are seeking to consistently beat the market. All our strengths are at your disposal to provide stock market research and recommendations with the only aim of growing wealth. To achieve this we develop with you a customized investment strategy in terms of your risk and return preferences.

Articles by John Henry Smith

Free portfolio performance 10 Jun 16

Up to Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose to a 10-month high of 2119.12 points, less than 1% below its all-time high of 2130.82 of 12 May last year. But stocks pulled back on Thursday and more decisively on Friday, as bond yields around the world reached or neared record lows amid looming gloomy political and economic headwinds.

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Stunning results achieved by Grail’s Free Portfolio in just two Months!

I am very pleased to report that the free portfolio in its deadline week exceeded my target of 15%, having reached a return of 16.84%, helped by a gain of 2.7%!
The purpose of the portfolio was to give readers irrefutable evidence of the unique power of the Grail Equity Management System (GEMS) to generate high returns with no more risk than the S&P 500. The first graph shows that the mother portfolio has a margin of safety vis-à-vis the index of 23.1%,

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Nicolas Darvas: Follow the Price Action and Set Stop-Losses

Of the many rules prescribed for investment success, the most golden of all is to cut your losses before they get too big. You may have also witnessed the peaking and catastrophic falls of such market favorites as Weight Watchers (WTW). The speculator and dancer (!) Nicolas Darvas gave us ideas how to set the stop-loss.

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How you see the Stock Market determines your Profit or Loss!

The key economic note this week was that non-farm payrolls for February was 242,000 versus Wall Street’s expectation of only 190,000; 27% above the consensus target. Wages however fell back by 0.1% from February’s gain of 0.5%. The workforce participation rate moved up to 62.9%. The excellent news on Friday was however received mutely by the market. Interest rates may rise.

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The stock market’s siamese twin oiled Friday’s rally

Because the stock market is currently strongly correlated to the energy sector, Friday’s rally responded in kind on the news of a surge of 12.3% in the NYMEX WTI sweet crude market after a report had suggested that OPEC may finally agree to cut its production to reduce the world glut. The news instantly oiled the S&P 500’s rise of 1.95%. However despite the strong daily gain, oil prices still ended the week down in spite of being the best one-day gain since February 2009, when WTI had gained 14.04%.

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The Age of the Alpha Stock

Alpha-stock denominated portfolios establish large margins of safety, strong profits, and provide outstanding client retention and marketing advantages, which mediocre and passive strategies are unable to generate. As we have entered a new normal, those asset managers who do more of the same are likely to face client frustration and profit recession.

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Beware the Ides of the Earnings Season!

It is critical for an investor to be very vigilant during the earnings season, which already began on January 11 with Alcoa (AA) reporting its results. Not only do companies report their financials, but they also make other significant announcements, such as either raising or lowering its earnings guidance for the coming months.
Given the importance of this information, it is no surprise that a company’s stock can often soar or plunge on these disclosures…

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That was the week that was!

Grail Alpha

Week January 17-22 : This was the first winning week of 2016 and of some relief to ordinary investors. The question is whether it is sustainable, or just a short-covering bounce, as is frequently the case when the market is undergoing a correction. Currently the S&P 500 has sunk 10.5%, the DJ-30 12.1%, and the NASDAQ 12.0%, since mid-2015. Calling a bottom, or a top, is a challenge even for professional investors. I would cite three short-term factors bearing on the question ‘Where do we go from here?’……

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Only high-Alpha Investing in 2016 will be profitable!

Russ Koesterich of Blackrock believes that the market is experiencing a profit recession. If so, equity markets will experience more of the same pain next year. The global economy will be even worse off as it moves through its recessionary cycle. However, in contrast, Grail portfolios will continue to show very attractive earnings growth, since their average earnings surprise over 5 quarters is $0.06

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Listen to the Sirens of the Stock Market at your Peril!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesy the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!”

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Adjust Your Sales in today’s Choppy Market!

Dumping stocks is one of the hardest things to do. The best way to do this is to examine each stock’s earnings growth projections for significant damage. A planned 20% or 25% return might now no longer realistic, in particular when the sink even below their 200-day moving average

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Don’t Over-Complicate Investment!

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities explains the five most simple rules of investment. Don’t build a Rube Goldberg machine! Don’t over-complicate things!
1. As a bull, ensure an up-trending market
2. Find a stock with superior fundamentals
3. Wait for a support base
4. Buy the stock when it breaks out
5. Cut your losses quickly if the stock fails

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