The End of Pax Americana: Why Nations Are Now Hoarding Oil | Jan Stuart

2026-02-13

Gavekal CEO Louis Gave joins me today for an insightful (and timely) conversation about emerging markets, China’s manufacturing edge, Japanese bond yields, and the broken relationship between Canada and the US.

If you’re discovering emerging markets for the first time (or think you already understand them), you need to hear this conversation because simplifying the opportunity abroad into one big blob is a mistake.

Louis helps reframe how we should think about investing in emerging markets, covering the lenses that matter most. We also dive into why the old 60/40 portfolio is dead, why Louis believes energy is the new anti-fragile asset, and more.

Find out more about Louis Gave here: https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/
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2026-02-06

The investment playbook has changed. Politics and geopolitics are no longer just background noise—they’re the foundation of every macro trade. In this conversation, Marko Papic, chief strategist at BCA Research and the godfather of “GeoMacro,” breaks down how investors need to completely rethink their approach to markets.

In this week’s Global Macro Update, we cover:

– Wild market swings: precious metals, dollar volatility, and Fed chair speculation
– Whether the dollar is in jeopardy of losing reserve currency status
– Why Europe is more investable than you may think—and the case for European equities
– The demographic solution no one is talking about: high-quality migration flows
– Defense spending rotation: Why European defense contractors are just getting started

“I don’t think

2026-01-14

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins me to discuss AI’s evolution, which sectors to watch now, and what’s driving markets in 2026.

Liz Ann breaks down a common misconception about the Mag 7: Nvidia was the top contributor to S&P 500 returns in 2025, yet 74 stocks did better on pure price performance. Only two of the seven “Mag 7” stocks beat the index. This distinction between contribution and performance matters for how investors construct their portfolios.

We also discuss the difference between market “uncertainty” and “instability”—Liz Ann argues the current environment is better described by the latter, given the non-linear nature of policy announcements around tariffs and trade.

Our conversation ends with the most valuable takeaway: FOMO, HODL,

2026-01-08

Many investors worry about China weaponizing its US Treasury holdings, but they might be looking in the wrong direction.

Taiwan holds nearly as much US debt as China—roughly $800 billion. But here’s what makes Taiwan’s position uniquely dangerous: private insurance companies own most of these Treasuries, not the government. These insurers hedge their holdings and face strict liquidation requirements.

In this conversation, I sit down with Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor in Chief at EconVue, and Eric Huang, a Taiwan-based geopolitical analyst and former deputy representative to the US for Taiwan’s KMT Party. Together, they’ve uncovered a systemic risk hiding in plain sight.

As Eric explains, even a credible rumor of Chinese aggression could trigger mass redemption requests from Taiwanese

2025-12-10

This is one of my favorite interviews of 2025. I just sat down with Jeff deGraaf, founder of Renaissance Macro Research, to get his thoughts on markets, cycles, and risk.

Jeff built his career translating technical analysis into actionable investment strategies for institutional clients. Institutional Investor has named him the #1 technical analyst for over a decade.

In this conversation, he walks through Jeff’s market cycle clock—a framework that plots inflation against growth to forecast stock market returns—and explains why inflation matters more to stocks than GDP growth does.

We cover:
• Why trend following beats mean reversion for long-term investors
• How to identify bubbles—and what to do when you’re in one
• Where semiconductors and healthcare sit on the valuation spectrum

2025-11-26

Zero interest rates didn’t exist for 4,000 years of recorded history. Now CrossBorder Capital founder Michael Howell believes we’re about to find out why.

Howell developed his framework for tracking global liquidity while working at Salomon Brothers, where he watched capital move across trading desks in real time. One core insight: the ratio between debt and liquidity—not debt-to-GDP—is what actually predicts financial crises and asset bubbles.

In this interview we cover:

– How policymakers created the “everything bubble” with zero rates and excess liquidity
– Why $70 trillion of debt must be refinanced every year
– What happens as that debt comes due while Fed liquidity slows
– How to think about asset allocation at different points in the cycle
– Why China is driving gold prices

2025-10-31

Are we living through 1997/98 all over again? Former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian breaks down why today’s tech market looks eerily similar to the dot-com bubble—but we’re not at the peak yet.

We dive into the troubling rise of circular deals, where companies like Nvidia are investing billions in their own customers—just like Cisco did in the late nineties. Jared reminds us that “it’s never different.”

We haven’t had a real bear market in 17 years (outside the pandemic), and Jared raises a critical question: Will the magnitude of the coming drawdown be proportional to the length of this bull market?

Plus, Jared reveals how he wrote his upcoming book in just 10 days, and why it’s the guide nearly every investor should follow.

Learn more about Jared Dillian here:

2025-10-24

Jacob Shapiro, director of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group, joins me to discuss the AI arms race.

Jacob compares AI to containerization, arguing the real opportunities lie in companies that leverage AI for productivity, not AI companies themselves.

You’ll also hear about India’s potential as a tech superpower—and why protecting proprietary data matters more than most companies realize. We also discuss Taiwan’s strategic importance, North American trade policy under the Trump administration, and how drug cartels impact Mexico’s relationship with the US.

Learn more about Jacob Shapiro here:
https://bespokegroup.io/people/

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