Trump… Less Friendly to Business than Kamala

2024-11-17

Have you ever heard of Immigration to China? Neither has Ed. But they will need immigrants to drive consumption for their economy.

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-17

He’s got bigger 🐟 to fry!

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-11-16

No Crisis / No Stimulus

Check out Ed D’Agostino’s full conversation with Shehzad Qazi, the managing director at China Beige Book here: -Q0

2024-10-04

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Dr. Lacy Hunt says the US economy is in a “very precarious situation.” Inflation is coming down, but prices are not. New cars and homes cost about 20% more than they did before the pandemic and remain out of reach for people on the middle and lower rungs of the economic ladder. The high cost of food isn’t helping, either.

Inflation hurts those who can least afford it. Lacy rams home the point—just because inflation is slowing, doesn’t mean there aren’t millions of people still suffering due to the higher costs of basic needs. Lacy walks us through the data.

We also discuss the economic impacts of artificial intelligence, the nuclear energy revival, and the pros and cons of immigration.

Dr. Hunt is

2024-09-27

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We’re wrapping up our energy series with Mark Mills, Executive Director of the National Center for Energy Analytics. Mark and I both began our careers in manufacturing plants before American manufacturing largely moved overseas. Today, that megatrend is coming full circle, as rising labor costs in China and an increased focus on resiliency persuade businesses to bring manufacturing and production back to the US.

I see this as a positive for North America, and advances in automation will make our manufacturing even more productive.

But this boom in reshoring, or “repatriation” as Mark calls it, requires massive amounts of energy. Where will it come from? That is the focus of our interview today.

Mark

2024-08-09

After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did the US cross a line in terms of weaponizing the dollar and denying access to the global financial system—opening the door to other nations losing confidence in the US dollar?

Saleha Mohsin, a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News and my guest today on Global Macro Update, pegs the watershed moment for dollar weaponization back decades earlier, to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. She covers this in detail in her book, Paper Soldiers, which has been one of my favorite geopolitical reads of the year.

We delve further into dollar weaponization in our interview, along

2024-08-02

As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”

I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.

Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors

2024-06-28

We are entering a golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, or “Kuppy” as he’s colloquially known.

Kuppy is the founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, where he publishes an excellent, free investor letter (link below) that I read regularly. In it, he’s written about the “great macro dreamscape,” where the world unravels largely in response to runaway government debt.

While many of Kuppy’s readers took his forecasts in a negative light (and there will be negative fallout, particularly inflation), he is more focused on the opportunities it will create for macro investors.

We dig into those opportunities in detail in this interview, with Kuppy sharing specific areas—including offshore energy—that he likes. We also discuss his success with uranium, and how our tense