Oil Demand SURGES Despite Energy Transition Hype | Josh Young
2024-09-13
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The prevailing narrative around oil is that a global supply glut and weakening demand from China will continue to keep oil prices down.
The reality is that oil isn’t going away anytime soon.
Josh Young, the founder and CIO at energy investment firm Bison Interests takes us on a world tour of oil-producing nations, explaining why there is “a lot less spare capacity than people think.” That includes capacity from Guyana, which some have called “the next Saudi Arabia.” He also believes the China demand story is overstated.
You will also hear about which OPEC nations might be cheating on their quotas, the nuances in the Exxon v. Chevron dispute, the future of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve… and what
Ex-Wall Street Trader: The $8 Trillion Bubble Ready to Burst | Jared Dillian
2024-08-23
That old private equity model is mostly extinct. In its place, former Wall Street trader Jared Dillian sees an $8 trillion bubble, built on massive layers of debt across 17,000 private equity firms.
Jared says this bubble poses a systemic threat to the entire financial system, with the potential to implode in ways similar to what we experienced during the 2008 financial crisis. He also explains the opportunities it presents for investors who get ahead of it.
Jared just released a comprehensive white paper on the private equity bubble—and what he’s calling the “Big Short 2.0.” Access your FREE copy by clicking the link below.
Find Jared Dillian’s free exposé on private equity here:
https://www.jareddillianmoney.com/go/JD059AF031/MEC
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Here’s How We Weaponized the US Dollar | Saleha Mohsin
2024-08-09
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US and its allies froze over $58 billion in assets from Russian oligarchs and blocked major Russian banks from using the international payment system, known as SWIFT. Did the US cross a line in terms of weaponizing the dollar and denying access to the global financial system—opening the door to other nations losing confidence in the US dollar?
Saleha Mohsin, a senior Washington correspondent for Bloomberg News and my guest today on Global Macro Update, pegs the watershed moment for dollar weaponization back decades earlier, to the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks. She covers this in detail in her book, Paper Soldiers, which has been one of my favorite geopolitical reads of the year.
We delve further into dollar weaponization in our interview, along
Why Interest Rates and Inflation Are Here to Stay | William White
2024-08-02
As the US and its Western allies realign supply chains to strengthen economic resiliency, the cost of certain goods and commodities will go up. I call this “resiliency-driven inflation.”
I received a note from renowned economist Bill White about this, which prompted our interview. Bill is a former chairman of the Economic and Development Review Committee at the OECD. He has served at the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and he is a long-time favorite speaker at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference.
Bill and I share concerns about an extended era of both higher inflation and higher interest rates. He sees us moving from an age of plenty, which he pegs as roughly 1990 to 2020, to an age of scarcity. In our interview, he discusses the five key macroeconomic factors
Geopolitical Shocks: How to Profit with Kuppy’s Macro Dreamscape
2024-06-28
We are entering a golden age of macro investing says Harris Kupperman, or “Kuppy” as he’s colloquially known.
Kuppy is the founder and CIO of Praetorian Capital, where he publishes an excellent, free investor letter (link below) that I read regularly. In it, he’s written about the “great macro dreamscape,” where the world unravels largely in response to runaway government debt.
While many of Kuppy’s readers took his forecasts in a negative light (and there will be negative fallout, particularly inflation), he is more focused on the opportunities it will create for macro investors.
We dig into those opportunities in detail in this interview, with Kuppy sharing specific areas—including offshore energy—that he likes. We also discuss his success with uranium, and how our tense
The Future of the Market: Roaring 20s or Repeat of the 70s? Ed Yardeni & Eric Wallerstein
2024-05-24
Will the stock market rise another 50% by 2030? Dr. Ed Yardeni believes there’s a substantial chance this could happen. We discuss why in this Global Macro Update interview.
Dr. Ed’s thesis cites increasing productivity, fueled by advances in technology. This aligns with my AI/productivity boom theme: AI and automation will supplement workers, who are in short supply, making companies much more productive.
Dr. Ed says, “Productivity is sort of fairy dust: It boosts real GDP, it keeps a lid on inflation, it allows wages to rise faster than prices, and it’s great for profit margins.”
Dr. Ed is a former chief investment strategist at Prudential Equity Group and at Deutsche Bank’s US Equity Group. Today, he runs Yardeni Research. His chief markets strategist, Eric Wallerstein (formerly of
The Coming Storm: How AI & Fed Changes Will Reshape Your Investments | Danielle DiMartino Booth
2024-05-10
QI Research founder and former Dallas Fed adviser Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses recession signals, how America lost its ability to budget, and whether we’re barreling toward stagflation.
Danielle unpacks a litany of troubling economic data in our interview. Layoffs are spreading from tech to retail, manufacturing, and transportation. And for the first time ever, Americans are paying more to service their non-mortgage debt than their mortgage debt.
Danielle and I also cover AI’s impact on jobs, short-sighted Covid-era policies, and the coming “condo-mageddon.”
Investors, watch to the end for Danielle’s thoughtful guidance on what this all means for the markets and where to look for safe havens.
Learn about Danielle DiMartino Booth’s letter, The Daily Feather, here:
The 1940s vs 2020s: Debt Levels, Monetary Policy, and Cryptos as Global Currencies | Lyn Alden
2024-04-05
Inflation is proving stickier than anyone would have hoped. Lyn Alden, the author of Broken Money: Why Our Financial System Is Failing Us and How We Can Make It Better and my guest today, offers a cogent explanation of why, likening it to the fiscal-driven inflation of the 1940s.
Lyn explains how the pandemic-era fiscal stimulus continues to affect our economy, along with increasing geopolitical instability and the runaway federal deficit. We also discuss bitcoin’s special role in emerging markets, vulnerabilities in our banking system, and the problem with India’s central bank digital currency.
Go here to learn about the Strategic Investment Conference:
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/JM543Z31/MEC
Go here to learn more about Lyn Alden: https://www.lynalden.com
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