by George Dorgan
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Dank der seit dem Winter immer noch positiven amerikanischen Konsumentenstimmung, steigen die Aktienmärkte weiter, während die Einkaufsmanager-Indizes der Fertigungswirtschaft sich schon seit 3 Monaten abwärts bewegen.
Wie kommt dass die Aktienmärkte heute wesentlich höher als im September 2011 stehen, obwohl die Konjunkturdaten, insbesondere in der Fertigungswirtschaft wesentlich schlechtere Zahlen als damals liefern ? Dies obwohl diese Indizes sehr stark mit dem Wirtschaftswachstum korrelieren.
JP Morgan’s Global PMIs:
| Month | Manu factur. | Services | Com posite | Michigan Consumer Confidence | S&P 500 | Copper | Brent Oil | AUD/ USD | Reference date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 2013 | 51.7 | 56.1 | 55.2 | 82.1 | 1645 | 3304 | 115.70 | 0.9053 | Sep 3, 2013 |
| July | 50.8 | 54.9 | 54.1 | 85.1 | 1703 | 3168 | 108.93 | 0.8903 | August 2, 2013 |
| June | 50.6 | 51.3 | 52.9 | 84.1 | 1615 | 3176 | 105.85 | 0.9116 | July 3, 2013 |
| May | 50.6 | 53.7 | 53.1 | 84.5 | 1640 | 3297 | 99.92 | 0.9750 | June 3, 2013 |
| April | 50.4 | 52.1 | 51.9 | 76.4 | 1582 | 3126 | 102.85 | 1.0253 | May 3, 2013 |
| March | 51.2 | 53.2 | 53.1 | 77.6 | 1554 | 3354 | 107.17 | 1.0424 | April4,2013 |
| February | 50.8 | 53.3 | 53.0 | 73.8 | 1525 | 3508 | 110.08 | 1.0202 | March4,2013 |
| January | 51.5 | 53.4 | 53.3 | 71.3 | 1503 | 3658 | 113.46 | 1.0427 | Feb4,2013 |
| December 2012 | 50.2 | 54.8 | 53.7 | 74.5 | 1461 | 3700 | 111.42 | 1.0481 | Jan 5, 2013 |
| November | 49.7 | 54.9 | 53.7 | 82.7 | 1407 | 3656 | 110.92 | 1.0432 | Dec 3 |
| October | 49.2 | 52.1 | 51.3 | 82.6 | 1423 | 3557 | 105.75 | 1.0338 | Nov 3 |
| September | 48.9 | 54.0 | 52.5 | 78.3 | 1437 | 3775 | 108.07 | 1.0231 | Oct 3 |
| August | 48.1 | 52.3 | 51.1 | 74.3 | 1406 | 3485 | 108.07 | 1.0239 | Sep 3 |
| July | 48.4 | 52.7 | 51.7 | 72.3 | 1361 | 3307 | 106 | 1.0465 | Aug 2 |
| June | 48.9 | 50.6 | 50.3 | 73.2 | 1357 | 3466 | 97 | 1.0230 | Jul 2 |
| May | 50.6 | 52.5 | 52.1 | 79.3 | 1263 | 3289 | 98 | 0.9640 | Jun 3 |
| April 2012 | 51.4 | 52.0 | 52.3 | 76.4 | 1402 | 3782 | 116 | 1.0260 | May 2, 2012 |
| September 2011 | 49.9 | 52.6 | 52.0 | 55.7 | 1123 | 3132 | 102 | 0.9634 | Sep 2, 2011 |
| February 2011 | 57.8 | 59.3 | 57.0 | 77.5 | 1331 | 4498 | 115 | 1.0127 | Mar 2, 2011 |
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George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers.
George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.