| There is a market truism that plays out eventually. That is non-trends transition to trends. The EURUSD is currently in a 463 pips tradig range for 2019. How does that compare to history? Not too favorably. The lowest trading range for a year is 1147 pips back in 2013. The recent average is around 1450 pips. There is room to roam. Be prepared. |
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alex clark
2019-07-23 at 13:47 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Great video Greg thank you for all the work you publish
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 15:20 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thanks!
Fred Junior
2019-07-23 at 13:57 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
That's So lucid.
Thanks Greg.
Your analysis gives hope, opens one's caged thoughts.
Thanks again Greg, this I'll keep.
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 15:16 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
It is important to free your mind and refocus on simple, logical stuff. I am glad I helped…
B adams
2019-07-23 at 14:12 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Great info here, appreciated.
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 15:16 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
U r welcome….
Omid Navid
2019-07-23 at 14:26 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
U added so many Hats
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 15:19 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
College football season approaching (as in American football). My son is a coach (like me). Apart from Clemson (where my wife and I went) and the Master's hat, the others are some of the teams he has coached as he climbed the coaching ladder.. This year?…. Go Buffs (Colorado Buffaloes).
Kam
2019-07-23 at 15:27 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thanks Greg….. much appreciated…. I've just finished reading your book… great work thank you…. as market conditions change over the years do you find your system is still efficient & effective as when you wrote the book?? Once again thank for all your hard work….
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 16:29 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Yes…As long as traders desire to define and limit risk and they choose to use visual tools like 100 and 200 bar MA, trend lines and retracements (on corrections), the story remains the same (I don't see it changing).
Each day on ForexLive.com, I document market action using the same tools and mindset from the book. This video is based on the same old Non-trend transitions to trends….
Traders – who care about risk (and I believe if you don't you open yourself to unlimited risk) – will always look to lean against levels where crowds gather. Either you are going to wrong, and lose a little, or right and make more than a little (i.e. a multiple of your risk). Those levels, become the basis for many traders around the world….That is important.
They always say "market conditions change". A lot of that thought is based on trends vs non-trends, but risk measurement is, and will always be based on leaning against something, and that something defines a bullish or bearish bias. It makes sense that the "most watched" things (like 100 bar MA), becomes the benchmark for that risk/bias defining levels.
My intention when writing the book, was to lay and build the foundation for traders who want to learn about trading from a mindset view (1st half of book), to a "how to" view (2nd half of book). I wanted it to be universal and FOREVER (not just the latest system that will come and go). PS. You can also use for other instruments other than forex and I do it for stocks, commodities, even bitcoin.
Nothing is perfect, but there are imperfect tools and approaches that do not focus on risk first. I do……
Thanks for reading my book. If you feel inclined to put a review on Amazon, I would be most thankful….
Kam
2019-07-23 at 17:08 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Dear Greg…thank you for the detailed feedback…it’s much appreciated….I’ve been trading for 4 years with some success and also read many books…. Your mindset, logic, knowledge, wisdom shines through in your book…. I’ve always used the 100ma as a lagging indicator and now as a leading indicator….I’m very familiar with Fibonacci as I’m a pro at Harmonic’s. Using your…. if…should rule and defining, limiting and accepting the risk has giving me the flexibility to get in and out when things are working and not…..also I’ve always traded the higher time frame and you system has given me confidence to trade 5M & 1hr….however on the 5M I use the 200ma for entry. It’s also really nice to be able to reach out to you here.
I will definitely leave outstanding feedback on Amazon…
I see all the hard work you have done to help us retail trader and from my personal experience you are a diamond in the rough. God bless you and take care….??? Kam
Ricardo Rivadeneyra
2019-07-23 at 17:13 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thank you Greg,
I would like to add that today once again this year, we have broken the multiyear 61.8 Fib (remembered line support) today at 1.1185. This Fib is drawn from the low on the first week of 2017 to the high on the second week on Feb 2018. Finally let’s not forget the gap that happened between the second and 3rd week of April 2017 (where I lost big) ant it yet has to be closed….and BTW that’s exactly where the market broke form non trending to trending to the upside.
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 18:31 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
The tilt is to the downside. To fill the gap would get the year to 800 pips…
Marc-Antoine Cloutier
2019-07-23 at 20:24 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Hey Greg, let's wait for a Macro Catalyst and then react properly. With Trump in power and election running in 2020, I have a feeling ECB might inject further stimulus and the FED might have to slow down the pace but at what rate… Could Brexit help and drive the Euro up on the 31st of October?!? For the moment I don't see EURUSD breaking that range before mid and end of Q3 where big boys will be back from summer vacations.
ForexLive
2019-07-23 at 21:48 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
You may be right…..Part of this video is to lay the pipe….When the water goes on, is another story…..Thanks for your comment and thoughts……
Marc-Antoine Cloutier
2019-07-24 at 07:40 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Love it Greg, thanks for sharing! @ForexLive
htc one
2019-07-27 at 06:59 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
old article but still relevant, contrary to your view, no deal brexit can drive the euro back to 1.03 confirming Greg theory of low range.https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/a-no-deal-brexit-will-sink-the-euro-201811280629
Csaba Major
2019-07-23 at 21:56 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
unfortunately im an inactive trader at the moment but i've been following you Greg since 2010 i think. your content is so rare. it's very informative and gives so much wisdom in ten minutes, some people would ask tens of hours and thousands of dollars for these tips. thanks for sharing!
Hewa Salehy
2019-07-23 at 23:09 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Very informative. Thank you. Look forward to more analysis.
Anthony Smith
2019-07-24 at 01:53 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thanks Greg for the very informative video. The simplicity with common sense is your strength. Every time i listen to you, i add a new weapon to my arsenal. Thank you again.
Bernard Lim
2019-07-24 at 02:11 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
U look great, Greg!
Pls put out more videos… Love it!
Alexandre Boyer
2019-07-24 at 02:22 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Great video! I'm wondering if I misunderstood because I find this a little contradictory? The explanation shows how important it is to anticipate and take a step ahead of the market. I hear here, you should be giving your best shot, thru fundamentals and technical analysis, at figuring out on which side a range would break before it actually does. But then, we're saying that if the market is ranging why would someone know the direction of the break if the market itself doesn't know it? I'd love to get a better understanding if someone (maybe Greg?) would care to explain please.
ForexLive
2019-07-24 at 14:55 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
It is a good point Alexandre.
We need to anticipate 463 pips being extended….."I just don't believe it.", but I will refrain from the "Big one" move until the break, then anticipate more….
Having said that, I – and we – can anticipate which way that break might go. Ricardo in comments, talks about being below the 61.8% at 1.1185 (bias bearish – when i did the video, the price was above the level so that happened subsequently). We are below the 100 day MA at 1.12424. Shorter term views (like off the hourly chart clues) are pointing lower. So if there is the "Big One" break, the sellers are making more of a play. The shorts are more in control.
However, we stil need to keep on our toes. We have been down at the lows before. We need the big break..
I see your point. I hope this better explains it to you and others…..
Mondli S. Mfayela
2019-07-24 at 06:50 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Valuable
simhs s
2019-07-24 at 08:38 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Thanks Greg for Great Video
Pasindu Rashmika
2019-07-24 at 21:11 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Great Video …. Thank you very much for this service.. Can you please make a video about how we analysis trends turns in 5 min chart and 1 hr chart with MA's.. what are the points to identify trend turn?
Prio Sapto Utomo
2019-07-27 at 12:58 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Very nice analysis. Please make more analysis video.
X-Ray Crystallography
2019-07-27 at 19:26 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
@Mr. Michalowski, well, HOW do you know that we haven't entered a new historical era of low ATRs??? WHY can't this condition last for YEARS?? In order to gain insight into that possibility, we have to look at WHY we've had low ATRs so far in 2019. Boris Schlossberg believes that it's the result of low interest rates among the major central banks (ECB, FED, etc.). Do you think there's some OTHER reason for these persistently-low ATRs?? That's an extemely important question. (What's your take on that??)
ForexLive
2019-07-27 at 22:57 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Rates have been low for a while..central bank policy steady, EUR forgotten as focus on GBP….Non trend begets non trend….markets do get stuck in the mud as traders get used to the range and then suddenly it breaks…..tools like the RSI get "used " to the relative market and traders and mathematics react more quickly to the recent history…..Then things change and trend traders trend the market while those stuck in "the new paradigm" and the relative strengths of the market, fight it and fight it, and it feeds the beast….
I don't know when or why (for sure), my ego would be getting in the way, but the purpose of this is to be open the mind to the idea that non trend will not last forever. The price action will show it…..
Michael Greer
2019-07-31 at 10:17 (UTC 2) Link to this comment
Can you please keep the great content coming.