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The ECB over-delivered (and so did the euro)

A month ago, Bank of Finland leader Olli Rehn said it was important to come up with a significant and impactful policy package in September.



"When you're working with financial markets, it's often better to overshoot than undershoot, and better to have a very strong package of policy measures than to tinker," he said.



The euro slumped on the headlines. The problem was that after you say something like that, market participants adjust and that makes it tougher to surprise.



So the ECB went on a coordinated disinformation campaign. Speaker after speaker over the past month went on the offensive. Knot said there was no need to resume QE, Weidmann said the same and others spoke along the same lines. A series of leaks continued right up until the decision that suggested QE may not come.



That set the stage for Draghi to deliver a 'surprise' of open-ended QE and open-ended guidance.

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5 comments

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  1. frank biita

    What course should I study to understand the economy like you?

    1. dtzman

      Keynesians can't do simple Math but they can kick cans.

    2. Tsetso

      If you have thousands of dollars to spend on useless courses go ahead, it won't help you much. Looking for a reason after the fact is easy, that's all they do. If it goes up they will explain why, if it goes down they will find another reason why it went down. All the smart talk after the fact has 0 value, doing it only for publicity.

    3. Tudor Conciu

      @Tsetso LOL (because what you said is 100% not true)

  2. Chad Underhill

    We are already well into a currency war. Negative rates are not going to end well. Buy land, gold and silver now while it's reasonably cheap.

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