Tag Archive: Trade

Fall of French Government Does Not Roil the Markets and a BOJ Dove did not Rule out Rate Hike this Month

2024-12-05

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2024-12-05

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer today. The only G10 currency that has not gained on it today is the Swedish krona, which is nursing minor losses. Still, the tone is one of consolidation and this may persist through the North American session, ahead of tomorrow US employment report. The median forecast in Bloomberg's survey has crept up to 215k. Most emerging market currencies have also gained on  greenback, but the South Korean won. The...

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Sterling and Gilts Pressed Lower by Firmer CPI

2024-11-20

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2024-11-20

US dollar and rates are firmer today. All the G10 currencies are lower, led by the Japanese yen. The UK reported firmer than expected CPI and this may have deflected some of the selling pressure away from sterling, which is off less than 0.2% to put it atop the pack ahead of the US open.

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Geopolitics Roil Capital Markets

2024-11-19

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2024-11-19

Within hours of the US giving permission to Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian territory, which it did, Moscow announced a change it is nuclear doctrine that allow for the use of nuclear weapons against a conventionally armed adversary that is backed by nuclear powers.

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CSI 300 Drops 7%, Oil Steadies, and the US Dollar Remains Firm

2024-10-09

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2024-10-09

Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the...

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Dollar-Bloc Currencies are Disappointed by the Lack of New Chinese Fiscal Stimulus

2024-10-08

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2024-10-08

Overview: The US dollar is mixed but is mostly consolidating. The Australian dollar is a notable exception. The lack of new fiscal initiatives from China weighed on the Aussie, which is off for the fourth consecutive session. The other dollar-bloc currencies have also seen the recent losses extended. On the other hand, the Japanese yen and euro enjoy a firmer bias. After a dreadful drop in factory order, German industrial production surprised to...

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Risk of 50 bp cut by the Fed Tomorrow Keeps the Greenback on the Defensive

2024-09-17

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2024-09-17

With heightened expectations of a 50 bp cut by the Federal Reserve tomorrow, the dollar has not gotten a reprieve and is softer against nearly all the currencies. Japan's long holiday weekend ended, and the greenback has held above JPY140 today.

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US Dollar Returns Bid on the Back of Firmer Rates

2024-09-09

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2024-09-09

Overview:  After falling following the US jobs report before the weekend, US interest rates have come back firmer, helping the give the dollar a boost. A downward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP, reflecting weaker consumption, business investment, and a little more inflation, have heled the greenback retrace the pre-weekend losses against the yen. Softer than expected price gauges, the setback of the yen, and the rise in US rates has seen the offshore...

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Dollar Comes Back Bid

2024-06-13

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2024-06-13

Overview: The dollar fell alongside US rates yesterday after the softer than expected CPI. The move on both rates and the dollar were pared after the FOMC meeting which held rates steady as widely expected, but the median dot now anticipated one cut this year rather than three. The dollar has recovered more ground today and is trading with a slightly firmer bias G10 currencies. However, trading is quiet and mostly narrow ranges have dominated....

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The Dollar Remains Soft Ahead of the Employment Report

2024-06-07

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2024-06-07

Overview: The dollar is little changed against the major currencies ahead of the US jobs report. It has been trading heavier than we expected given that two more G10 central banks cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve.

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UK CPI Disappoints

2024-05-22

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2024-05-22

Overview: A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a firmer than expected UK CPI reading have allowed the New Zealand dollar and sterling to show resilience in the face of the US dollar's broadly firmer tone. And even there, the Kiwi and pound have seen their early gains pared. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies today and has fallen to a new 12-month low against the euro. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Central...

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Sterling Moves Back into Previous Trading Range, but will it Hold?

2024-02-07

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2024-02-07

Overview:  The dollar is trading with a slightly heavier bias as some of its recent gains are pared. Sterling has moved back into the $1.26-$1.28 trading range that dominated since the middle of last December until the start of this week. The euro is also trading a little firmer despite another large drop in German industrial output (-1.6%). The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone are the notable exceptions with a softer profile....

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The Dollar Goes Nowhere Quickly

2024-01-09

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2024-01-09

Overview: The dollar continues to consolidate broadly after the dramatic price swings at the end of last week. For the most part, the greenback remains inside yesterday's ranges, which were inside last Friday's. The G10 currencies are a little heavier today, except the Japanese yen and Norwegian krone, which are posting small gains. Indeed, the greenback is near session highs against most of the major currencies as we go to print. Emerging market...

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Markets Continue to Struggle

2023-10-05

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2023-10-05

Overview:  The markets remain unsettled. Follow-through dollar selling has been limited today after yesterday's pullback. Narrow ranges are prevailing, but the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar, the weakest G10 currencies in recent days, are heavier again today. Although it seems that the BOJ did not intervene earlier this week, but the dollar bulls has been chastened just the same and the greenback is holdings below yesterday's high...

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Market Awaits US Data and Leadership

2023-08-30

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2023-08-30

Overview:  The dollar staged a major technical reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs report than expected, spurring a large drop in US interest rates. And this is despite press reports that the participation rate in the survey is half of what was three years ago. We suspect the price action said as much about market positioning as it did about the data. The path to the US jobs data on Friday goes through...

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After Strong Demand for US Three-Year Notes, Treasury will Sell $38 bln 10-year Notes

2023-08-09

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2023-08-09

Overview: The first leg of the US refunding was well received, with the three-year note being scooped up by investors, driving the yield below it was trading in the when-issued market. Today, the Treasury sells $38 bln 10-year notes, whose auctions have been less than stellar recently. The US 10-year yield reached 4.20% last week and is now straddling 4%. Italian bonds are also firm as the Italian government clarifies the new tax on banks' windfall...

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Risk Appetites Squashed by Weak Chinese Imports/Exports and Moody’s Downgrade of 10 US Banks

2023-08-08

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2023-08-08

Overview: The combination of falling Chinese imports and exports, Moody's downgrade of ten US small and medium-sized banks is serving to squash risk appetites. Equities are weak, but bond markets are strong despite the surprise tax on Italian banks announced yesterday and the kick-off of the US $103 bln refunding today. Outside of Japan and Australia, Asia Pacific equity markets were lower led by a 1.8% drop in the Hang Seng and a nearly 2.2% loss...

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Yen and Yuan Lead Move Against the Dollar

2023-07-06

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2023-07-06

Overview: Stocks and bonds ae selling off today. The greenback is also trading heavily. Ironically, the yen is the strongest among the G10 currencies and the Chinese yuan is the strongest among emerging market currencies. The dollar is firmer against the Scandis and Canadian dollar. Most emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso, which traded at its best level yesterday since 2015. While nearly all the bourses but India fell in the...

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The Dollar Regains Composure

2023-06-28

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2023-06-28

Overview: The dollar is better bid today. It is rising against nearly all the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans bearing the brunt, after a softer than expected Australian inflation report. The yen has steadied after extending its losses to new lows for the year. Emerging market currencies are also mostly lower, though the Mexican peso is edging higher for the fourth consecutive session. The large Asia Pacific bourses rallied with the exception...

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Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges

2023-04-20

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2023-04-20

Overview: Equities are mostly lower, while bonds have risen. The dollar is trading in narrow ranges and mixed against the G10 currencies and emerging markets. Most Asian bourses were lower. The Nikkei (though not the Topix) and Hong Kong were the chief exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for the second consecutive day, in what looks like the first back-to-back loss since early this month. US equity futures are lower, with the NASDAQ, which eked...

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RBA Holds Fire, Sterling Reaches Best Level since last June, and the Dollar Struggles to Find Much Traction

2023-04-04

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2023-04-04

Overview: The jump in oil prices is the newest shock and the May WTI contract is holding above $80 a barrel as it consolidates yesterday's surge. A week ago, it settled near $73.20. Australian and New Zealand bond yields moved lower, partly in catch-up and partly after the RBA stood pat. South Korean bonds also rallied on the back of softer inflation (4.2% vs. 4.8%). But European and US benchmark yields is 2-4 bp higher. The large equity markets...

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