Tag Archive: participation rate

2017 Is Two-Thirds Done And Still No Payroll Pickup

2017-09-07

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2017-09-07

Establishment Survey, Jan 2010 - Jul 2017
The payroll report for August 2017 thoroughly disappointed. The monthly change for the headline Establishment Survey was just +156k. The BLS also revised lower the headline estimate in each of the previous two months, estimating for July a gain of only +189k. The 6-month average, which matters more given the noisiness of the statistic, is just +160k or about the same as when the Federal Reserve contemplated starting a third round of QE back in 2012.

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Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand?

2017-08-04

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2017-08-04

The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised higher (+9k) to 231k. The underemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching the cyclical low set in May. This is all the more impressive because the participation rate also ticked up (62.9% from 62.8%).

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April Jobs Won’t Change Minds

2017-05-05

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2017-05-05

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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Solid US Jobs Report in line with Expectations

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

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The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k).

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Real Wages Really Inconsistent

2017-02-16

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2017-02-16

Average Weekly Earnings Production and Nonsupervisory August 2007 - February 2017
Real average weekly earnings for the private sector fell 0.6% year-over-year in January. It was the first contraction since December 2013 and the sharpest since October 2012. The reason for it is very simple; nominal wages remain stubbornly stagnant but now a rising CPI subtracts even more from them.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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How you see the Stock Market determines your Profit or Loss!

The key economic note this week was that non-farm payrolls for February was 242,000 versus Wall Street’s expectation of only 190,000; 27% above the consensus target. Wages however fell back by 0.1% from February’s gain of 0.5%. The workforce participation rate moved up to 62.9%. The excellent news on Friday was however received mutely by the market. Interest rates may rise.

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Labor Participation Rates: Falling in the Ageing U.S., Rising in Ageing Germany and Crisis-Hit Italy

The most effective ways of measuring employment is by looking at the Labor Participation Rate. We compare the participation rates of the United States, Canada, the U.K., Germany and Italy.

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