Tag Archive: Norway

Fed Minutes were Not as Dovish as Initially Read

Overview: The sell-off in European bonds continues today. The 10-year German Bund yield is around four basis points higher to bring the three-day increase to about 22 bp. The Italian premium over Germany has risen by almost 18 bp over these three sessions. 

Read More »

China Disappoints and Surprises with Rate Cut

Overview: Equities were mostly higher in the Asia Pacific region, though Chinese and Hong Kong markets eased, and South Korea and India were closed for national holidays. Despite new Chinese exercises off the coast of Taiwan following another US congressional visit, Taiwan’s Taiex gained almost 0.85%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is advancing for the fourth consecutive session, while US futures are paring the pre-weekend rally. Following disappointing data...

Read More »

The Dollar Jumps and the Euro Slips under $1.03

Overview: The dollar is soaring today, and the euro is trading at new 22-year lows having traded below $1.03. Even a 50 bp hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has failed to prevent a sharp drop in the Australian dollar.

Read More »

Risk Appetites are Fickle

Overview: Yesterday’s strong US equity gains failed to carry over into today’s session. Japanese and Australian shares fared the best among the large Asia Pacific market, with the Nikkei off less than 0.4% and the ASX off less than 0.25%.

Read More »

What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

Overview: With the FOMC's decision several hours away, the dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies.  The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are leading.  The euro, yen, and sterling are posting minor gains (less than 0.1%).  Most of the freely liquid and accessible emerging market currencies are also firmer.  The Turkish lira is a notable exception.  The decline in the core inflation and a smaller than expected rise in the...

Read More »

Taper, No Tantrum

Overview:  The market's reaction to the FOMC statement was going according to our script, with the dollar backing off on a buy rumor sell the fact type of activity until Powell provided an end date for the tapering (mid-2022) before providing a start date (maybe next month).  This spurred a dollar rally. 

Read More »

Is it Really all about US CPI?

Overview:  The markets are in a wait-and-see mode, it appears, ahead of the US CPI figures, as it absorbs bond supply from Europe and monitors the potential restructuring of China's Evergrande.  A new storm may hit US oil and gas in the Gulf before recovering from the past storm and helping to underpin prices.

Read More »

FX Daily, July 07: Dollar Stabilizes at Elevated Levels After Surging Yesterday

The dollar has steadied after surging yesterday and has so far retained the lion's share of its gains, though it remains lower against most major currencies today. The dollar-bloc and Norwegian krone are the best performers while the yen is underperforming.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 24: China Action on Commodities and Crypto Featured

The US dollar is firmer in the European morning after starting out with a softer bias in Asia Pacific turnover. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Swiss franc are heavy, but ranges are narrow, and consolidation seems to be the flavor of the day.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 12: The Dollar Stabilizes but Stocks, Not So Much

The markets remain on edge. Asia Pacific and US equities have yet to find stable footing, and inflation fears are elevated. The foreign exchange market has turned quiet as the dollar consolidates its recent losses.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 15: Big Week Begins Quietly

The capital markets are beginning a new and busy week in a non-committal fashion.  Equities are mixed.  Except for Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia, most markets in the Asia Pacific region were lower, led Chinese and Indian shares. 

Read More »

FX Daily, December 17: Dollar Thumped

Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar.  Equity markets are moving higher.  Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 5: The Dollar Slides and the Yuan Jumps

Overview: The markets did not wait for the final vote count and took stocks and bonds higher while pushing the greenback lower. While it appears Biden will be the next US President, investors seemed to like the fact that his agenda will be checked by a Senate that may remain in Republican hands.  Stocks are on a tear. 

Read More »

FX Daily, April 30: ECB Takes Center Stage

Overview: Equities continue to recover even as deep economic contractions are reported. Yesterday, the US said Q1 GDP contracted at an annualized pace of 4.8%, while the eurozone reported today that output fell 3.8% quarter-over-quarter in Q1.  Hong Kong and South Korea were closed, but the rest of the Asia Pacific bourses rallied strongly with several, including Australia and India, rising more than 2%.

Read More »

Is GFC2 Over?

Is it over? That’s the question everyone is asking about both major crises, the answer is more obvious for only the one. As it pertains to the pandemic, no, it is not. Still the early stages. The other crisis, the global dollar run? Not looking like it, either.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 10: Quiet Start to the New Week in which Politics may Dominate

Overview: The global capital markets have begun the new week on a cautious tone as investors seek to assess the latest news on the new coronavirus. Nearly all the markets in Asia fell but China. European bourses are lower as well, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 off about 0.3%. US shares are soft but little changed.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Six Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

The prospect of a third trade truce between the US and China helped underpin the optimism that extended the rally in equities.  Bond yields continued to back-up after dropping precipitously in August, led by a more than  30 bp increase in the US yield benchmark.  The Dollar Index fell for the second consecutive week, something it had not done this quarter.

Read More »

Boris Johnson Threatens To Resign If Theresa May “Goes Against His Brexit Demands”, Pound Rises

In confirmation that Theresa May's upcoming Florence speech this Friday is not only what many have called "the most important day for Brexit since the referendum", but also the most opaque, the Telegraph reports that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign as before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a “Swiss-style” arrangement with the EU in her upcoming speech.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Looking Through the FOMC Meeting as it Looks Past Poor Q1 GDP

US jobs and auto sales data may be more important than the FOMC meeting. Norway and Australia's central bank meets. Neither is expected to change policy. All three large countries that reported Q1 GDP figures last week - US, UK, France - disappointed expectations.

Read More »

Blocher and the People That Ruined the EU

Last weekend, European leaders gathered in Rome for the 60th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome. They discussed, not for the first time, how to get the EU back on track. And they told each other they are still committed to the Union and believe in its future. (We’ve heard that one before, too.)

Read More »