Tag Archive: Norges Bank

Serenity Now

2024-11-07

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2024-11-07

Overview:  The markets are calmer after yesterday's post-US election drama. A consolidative tone has emerged in the foreign exchange market, and the dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies, led the 1% gain in the Norwegian krone, after the central bank left rates on hold. Sweden's Riksbank delivered the expected half-point cut and the krona is up 0.5%. Japanese officials warned against excessive moves, and the PBOC set the dollar's...

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Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets

2024-11-05

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2024-11-05

Overview: A nervous calm hangs over the markets as the US goes to the polls. The proximity of the presidential contest warns that the results may not been known as soon as people hope. Indeed, many fear the voting simply begins the next phase of the contest, with premature declarations of victory and disputes over votes. The dollar is in mostly narrow ranges today, but the Antipodeans and Scandis are the strongest, and the Reserve Bank of Australia...

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US Polls Spur Position Adjusting Ahead of Tomorrow’s Election

2024-11-04

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2024-11-04

Overview: Weekend polls in the US made it seem that the Trump victory, which many large pools of capital, had discounted, was not so inevitable after all. The most dramatic market response was taking US yields and the dollar lower. The US 10-year yield is off about nine basis points to straddle 4.30% and the two-year yield down four basis points to around 4.16%. The greenback is also against all the G10 currencies. Most emerging market currencies...

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Stocks Higher, Dollar Lower: Post-Fed

2024-09-19

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2024-09-19

Overview: The Federal Reserve's 50 bp rate cut has made for a volatile 15 hours or so in the foreign exchange market. As North American traders return to their posts, the greenback is heavy. They will find that only the yen and Russian ruble are softer. Norway delivered a hawkish hold, and the krone leads the G10 currencies with more than a 1% gain. Australia's employment data was sufficiently strong that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely...

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Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker Says US Economy is Expanding at 3% Clip for 3rd Quarter in Past 4, and the Fed is Going to Do What?

2024-09-18

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2024-09-18

The dollar remains offered ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. That no official has pushed back against the press story that some suspect was planted by the Fed Chair (will a reporter specifically ask him about it today?) during a quiet period should not be taken as evidence one way or the other. And many understand that it is not unprecedented.

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Greenback Continues to Trade Heavily amid Heightened Speculation of a 50 bp Cut Wednesday

2024-09-16

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2024-09-16

Overview: The markets are continuing to be impacted by the possibility that Fed officials planted a press report to put 50 bp cut back on the table after the market had moved away from it after the recent jobs data and CPI. In the Fed funds futures, there is around an 80% of a half-point move on Wednesday discounted and about an 80% chance of a second 50 bp cut this year. This has taken a toll on the greenback and cut short the technical correction...

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Heightened Speculation that Fed may Cut 50 bp Next Week Sends the Dollar Lower

2024-09-13

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2024-09-13

Overview: The US dollar is falling against nearly all the world's currencies today amid heightened speculation that a 50 bp cut is still on the table for next week's FOMC meeting. In the derivatives market, the odds are the highest in several weeks. The ostensible trigger was apparently a news wire story by a reporter thought to be used by some Fed officials to foster communication. A few former Fed officials also seemed to endorse a half-point...

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Subdued Market Compared to a Week Ago: Is the Dramatic Position Unwinding Over?

2024-08-12

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2024-08-12

Overview: The capital markets have begun the week in subdued fashion. Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day celebration, and this week's key events, which include US and UK CPI, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and potentially its first rate cut. The uncertainty about the market positioning and the extent of the carry-trade may also be dampening activity. The yen and Swiss franc are the weakest of the G10 currencies today,...

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SNB Surprises the Market (Again)

2024-06-20

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2024-06-20

The US dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies today but the Norwegian krone. Norway's central bank left policy on hold and warned that if the economy performs as expected, it does not anticipate a rate cut until next year.

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Attention turns to Lagarde’s Press Conference and US Q4 GDP

2024-01-25

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2024-01-25

Overview: The US dollar is trading mostly quietly in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies ahead of the ECB's President Lagarde's press conference at the conclusion of the policy meeting and the first estimate of Q4 US GDP. With elevated price pressures, Norway's central bank left rates steady and reiterated its signal that rates will remain high for some time, and this has lifted the krone by about 0.5% to leader the major currencies. Most of...

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Fed to Express More Confidence that Policy is Sufficiently Restrictive Despite the Easing of Financial Conditions

2023-12-13

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2023-12-13

Commentary will resume with a 2024 outlook on December 29. Overview: The dollar is trading with a firmer bias today ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Standing pat for two meetings was framed as a pause, but given the decline in price pressures, being unchanged for a third meeting is understood as the end of the historically aggressive tightening cycle. Fed Chair Powell is expected to express greater confidence that policy is sufficiently...

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BOJ Speculation Unwound, Taking the Yen Lower

2023-12-11

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2023-12-11

Overview: The busy week of central bank meetings is off to a mostly slow start. The dollar is narrowly mixed in quiet turnover, except against the Japanese yen. Many participants seemed to exaggerate the risks of a BOJ move next week and dollar continued its recovery that began ahead of the weekend. Among emerging market currencies, central European currencies appear to be aided by the firmer euro. They are resisting the dollar's advance seen...

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Dollar Extends Losses Post-FOMC

2023-11-02

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2023-11-02

Overview: We suspect that if Martians read the FOMC statement, which was nearly identical to the September statement and listened to Chair Powell, they would conclude there was nothing new. Yet, the market habitually hears Powell as dovish and this has weighed on rates and the dollar, while lifting risk appetites. Follow-through selling of the greenback has dragged it lower against all the major currencies, with the Antipodean leading the way, and...

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Higher for Longer Lifts the Dollar, while SNB Surprises Many by Standing Pat–Over to the BOE

2023-09-21

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2023-09-21

Overview: The Federal Reserve's hawkish hold, which included 50 bp less of cuts next year than it had signaled in June, has lifted the dollar against most currencies today. The notable exception is the Japanese yen. The greenback did extend its advance to new highs for the year before the market turned cautious ahead of the outcome of the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies after the Swiss National...

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Week Ahead: Thumbnail Sketch of Central Bank Meetings

2023-09-16

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2023-09-16

The week ahead is dominated by central bank meetings. Six of the G10 central banks meets. The post-Covid monetary tightening cycle is ending. The start was not synchronized, and neither will be end. It is tempting to think that those that began the tightening cycle early will among the first to finish. Among emerging markets that is true for Brazil and Chile, both of whom have begun cutting rates. And Brazil is likely to deliver the second cut in...

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Higher for Longer

2023-06-22

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2023-06-22

Overview:  The central banks of Norway and Switzerland have hiked rates by 50 bp and 25 bp, respectively. Attention is on the Bank of England. A 25 bp hike is widely expected but after strong inflation report, the risk is clearly for a 50 bp hike. In fact, we suspect a quarter-point move could see sterling sold. With a new orthodox economics team in Turkey, a large rate hike is expected today. Late in the North American session, Mexico's central...

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The Greenback Recovers After the Initial Post-Fed Wobble

2022-12-15

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2022-12-15

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid after losing ground against most currencies as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision and press conference. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been tagged the hardest, illustrating the risk-off mood, and arguably the weakening growth prospects. Countries that peg their currencies to the dollar have hiked rates, as has the Philippines and Taiwan. The Swiss National Bank and Norway have also lifted policy...

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Five G10 Central Banks Meet and US CPI on Tap

2022-12-10

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2022-12-10

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13.

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Fed’s Hawkishness Roils the Capital Markets

2022-11-03

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2022-11-03

Overview: The Fed delivered the expected 75 bp rate hike, and although it says it will take into account the cumulative effect of past hikes and their lagged impact, the takeaway has been a hawkish message. Risk appetites have evaporated. The dollar is stronger, while stocks and bonds have been sold. Japan’s markets were spared due to the national holiday, but the other large markets in the area were sold, lead by the 3% decline in the Hang Seng....

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Putin and Powell Lift Dollar

2022-09-21

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2022-09-21

Overview: Between Putin’s mobilization of 300k Russian troops and Fed Chair Powell expected to lead the central bank to its third consecutive 75 bp hike later today, the dollar rides high. It has recorded new two-year highs against the dollar bloc and Chinese yuan, while sterling was sent to new lows since 1985. Asia Pacific bourses were a sea of red for the sixth decline in the regional benchmark in the past seven sessions. Surprisingly, Europe’s...

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