Tag Archive: newsletter

Exports: Currency Devaluation Won’t Grow the Economy

2019-12-04

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2019-12-04

Industrial Production, 2000-2019
A visible weakness in economic activity in major world economies raises concern among various commentators that world economies have difficulties recovering despite very aggressive loose monetary policies. The yearly growth rate of US industrial production stood at minus 1.1 % in October, against minus 0.1% in September, and 4.1% in October last year.

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Dollar Soft on Weak Data and the Return of Tariff Man

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

The dollar has taken a hit from the weaker than expected data Monday. Tariff man is back. The US economy remains solid in Q4 but there are some worrying signs for the November jobs data Friday. The political pressure on Turkey from the US could increase soon; South Africa’s Q3 GDP came in well below expectations at -0.6% q/q and 0.1% y/y.

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FX Daily, December 3: US Brandishes Tariff Weapon and Weakens Animal Spirits

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Asia Pacific equities mostly declined in sympathy with yesterday's large sell-off in the US and Europe. China and Taiwan were the notable exceptions, while Australia's 2.2% decline, following the central bank meeting that resulted in what many are seeing as a hawkish hold, led the move lower. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 1.6% yesterday, the largest loss in two months, and is extending the losses for a third session today.

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USD/CHF hammered down to sub-0.9900 levels, 2-week lows

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Technical levels to watch
USD/CHF lost some additional ground for the second straight session on Tuesday. A subdued USD demand, stability in equity markets did little to provide any respite. Trump’s latest remarks opened the room for a further intraday depreciating move. The USD/CHF pair witnessed some follow-through selling on Tuesday and dropped to near two-week lows, below the 0.9900 handle in the last hour.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in Novemeber 2019: -0.1 percent YoY, -0.1 percent MoM

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, November 2019
03.12.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in November 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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2019-12-03 – Amendment of National Bank Ordinance

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Changes due to entry into force of FinSA/FinIA andadjustments to minimum reserve requirements. The Swiss National Bank is amending the National Bank Ordinance (NBO). Various terms used in the NBO will be revised in connection with the entry into force of the Financial Services Act (FinSA) and the Financial Institutions Act (FinIA) as of 1 January 2020.

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Swiss foreign work permit quotas maintained for 2020

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Every year, Switzerland sets quotas for the number of work visas it issues to citizens outside the EU and EFTA. This week the government announced it would maintain the quota of 8,500 permits that was in place in 2018. In addition, it confirmed an earlier deal it struck with the UK to issue up to 3,500 work visas to British citizens in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

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Money and Prices Are a Dynamic System, Report 1 Dec

2019-12-03

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2019-12-03

Gold and Silver Prices
The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensional analysis looks at the units on both sides of an equation.

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FX Daily, December 2: PMIs Provide Latest Fuel for Equity Markets

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Mostly better than expected manufacturing PMI readings for December, including in China, is providing the latest incentive for equity market bulls. Led by the Nikkei, which was aided by a weaker yen major equity markets in Asia Pacific rallied and recouped most of the nearly 1% loss before the weekend. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also shrugging off the pre-weekend loss and to challenge the multiyear high recorded last week.

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Wird Risiko belohnt?

2019-12-02

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Risikoprämien an den Finanzmärkten. Bildlich dargestellt.

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Swiss Retail Sales, October 2019: +0.1 percent Nominal and +0.9 percent Real

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, October 2019
02.12.2019 - Turnover adjusted for sales days and holidays rose in the retail sector by 0.1% in nominal terms in October 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.9% compared with the previous month.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Over the weekend, China reported stronger than expected November PMI readings while Korea reported weaker than expected November trade data.  While the China data is welcome, we put more weight on Korea trade numbers, which typically serve as a good bellwether for the entire region.  Press reports suggest the Phase One trade deal has stalled due to Hong Kong legislation passed by the US Congress.

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Could America Survive a Truth Commission?

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

A nation that's no longer capable of naming names and reporting what actually happened richly deserves an economic and political collapse to match its moral collapse. You've probably heard of the Truth Commissions held in disastrously corrupt and oppressive regimes after the sociopath/kleptocrat Oligarchs are deposed. 

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Switzerland’s dark business with Ukrainian coal

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

Pro-Russian separatists are financing their war in Ukraine with coal deliveries to the West. Now the role of Swiss companies in Zug and Geneva is being investigated, according to a report in the SonntagsZeitung. Fontus AG describes itself on its website as a “reliable and responsible supplier of high-grade solid fuels”, selling “coal of Russian and Kazakh production”.

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Eastern European Nations Buy and Repatriate Gold Due To Growing Risks To Euro and Dollar

2019-12-02

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2019-12-02

◆ Prudent leaders in Eastern European countries are repatriating their national gold reserves and diversifying into gold due to geopolitical risks and monetary risks posed to the dollar, euro and pound◆ Slovakia has joined China, Russia and a host of countries buying gold or seeking to repatriate their gold from the Bank of England and the New York Federal Reserve◆ “Brexit and the risk of a global economic crisis put Slovak gold stored in Britain...

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1 in 10 Swiss hospitals facing financial difficulty

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Around one hospital in ten in Switzerland could end up in financial difficultly, according to a report by PWC. In addition, 37 of the 44 hospitals surveyed will not be profitable enough to remain competitive over the next five to ten years, predict the authors of the report.

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Zurich airport company wins huge Indian deal

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Flughafen Zürich AG, the operator of Zurich airport, has been selected to design, develop and operate a new airport near the Indian capital after outbidding local companies. The companyexternal link said in a statement on Fridayexternal link it would develop and operate the new Noida International Airport at Jewar in Uttar Pradesh state under a 40-year concession.

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A China Trade Deal Just Finalizes the Divorce

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

China Share of World Exports, 2000-2018
Each party will continue to extract whatever benefits they can from the other, but the leaving is already well underway. Beneath the euphoric hoopla of a trade deal with China is the cold reality that the divorce has already happened and any trade deal just signs the decree. The divorce of China and the U.S. was mutual; each had used up whatever benefits the tense marriage had offered, and each is looking forward to no longer being dependent on the...

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Politicians Want Thanksgiving To Be Political. Ignore Them.

2019-12-01

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2019-12-01

Often, government-created holidays begin with a good premise — i.e., Independence Day, Armistice Day — and get worse from there. On Independence Day, instead of celebrating armed rebellion and secession, we now sing the praises of the government. Similarly, Armistice Day — a day designed to commemorate the end of a war — became Veterans Day, a day designed to honor government employees.

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Swiss Financial Accounts, 2018 edition

2019-11-30

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2019-11-30

Capital losses and transactions influence household financial wealth
The financial assets of households were influenced by two factors in 2018: First, falling share prices led to high capital losses and, second, households grew their financial wealth through transactions. They increased their insurance and pension scheme entitlements, expanded their bank deposits and invested in securities. Overall, household financial assets fell slightly by CHF 14 billion to CHF 2,586 billion (down 0.6%) – the first decline in ten...

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