Tag Archive: newsletter

There at the Beginning

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

Sometimes it is difficult to gain perspective. That is why it may be difficult to see the forest for the trees. It is as we spend most of our time climbing a mountain: One handhold and foothold at a time. Immediacy and urgency limit our peripheral and forward visions.

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No Sign of Stimulus, Or Global Growth, China’s Economy Sunk By (euro)Dollar

2019-03-16

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2019-03-16

China Industrial Production 1999-2019
Najib Tun Razak was elected as Malaysia’s Prime Minister in early 2009. Taking office that April amid global turmoil and chaos, Najib’s first official visit was to Beijing in early June. His father, also Malaysia’s Prime Minister, had been the first among Asian nations to open formal diplomatic relations with China thirty-five years before.

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Euro slides against the dollar on ECB dovishness

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

EUR-USD and 10-year Real Rate Differential 2014-2019
The euro has declined further against the dollar but should strengthen over next 12 monthsThe euro fell to a 20-month low against the US dollar following the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March policy meeting, given the revised forward guidance that suggests that the interest rate differential is unlikely to provide much upside to the euro in the next few months.

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Three Swiss cities ranked in world’s top 10 most livable

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

Mercer’s 2019 livability ranking looks at 231 cities across the globe. Vienna comes top for the tenth year in a row, while Bagdad ranks last. Three Swiss cities are among the global top ten. Zurich is 2nd, Geneva 9th and Basel 10th. Bern, a fourth Swiss city, is not far behind in 14th place.

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FX Daily, March 15: Euro and Yen Volatility Slips to New Five-Year Lows on the Ides of March

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

Overview: The capital markets are calm ahead of the weekend.  Outside of Australia and Thailand, Asia Pacific equities advanced, while European shares are mostly little changed. The regional benchmarks, like the S&P 500 have recouped last week's losses.  Benchmark 10-year yields are little changed on the day, leaving the US 10-year yield virtually unchanged on the week near 2.62%.

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Pound to Swiss Franc Forecast: GBP/CHF rate hits near 1-year high

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

It is now very close to the best time to buy Swiss Francs with pounds since May 2018. The stronger pound and a reduced global risk appetite has seen the move on the GBP/CHF pairing. This is presenting a much improved opportunity to buy Swiss Francs with pounds. Any client wishing to buy or sell on this pairing might benefit from a quick review with our team to best understand what is next, and the potential outcomes.

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What Sort of “Democracy” Do We Have If Everyone’s Goal Is Maximizing Their Government Swag?

2019-03-15

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2019-03-15

S-Curve of Centralization
A democratic republic is a government in which power flows from citizens to their elected representatives. The American revolutionaries did not make a big distinction between republic and democracy, for in the context of the late 1700s, the dominant political structure was monarchy, and democracy meant the people have the final say via elections.

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UBS fined and denied right to sponsor IPOs in Hong Kong

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Swiss bank UBS has been fined HK$375 million (CHF48 million) for irregularities involving three IPOs it had help list on the Hong Kong stock exchange in 2009. Its licence to sponsor IPOs in the city was also suspended for one year.

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FX Daily, March 14: Another UK Vote, but No Closure

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Overview:  The Brexit drama continues to play out, and the Withdrawal Bill that has been twice defeated is ironically not dead yet. Today's vote, in fact, is predicated on another "meaningful vote" before seeking an extension.  Sterling remains firm near yesterday's highs, which were the best levels since last June.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in February 2019: -0.7 percent YoY, +0.2 percent MoM

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, February 2019
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in February 2019 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.9 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products. Compared with February 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.7%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB Forward Guidance: the Devil is in the Detail

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

ECB Policy Rates, 2006 - 2019
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new long-term refinancing package for banks (called TLTRO-III) and made clear that interest rates would not be raised this year. While these measures were expected, they have come earlier than we thought.

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How States/Empires Collapse in Four Easy Steps

2019-03-14

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2019-03-14

S-Curve of Expansion, Maturation, Stagnation and Collapse
There is a grand, majestic tragedy in the inevitable collapse of once-thriving states and empires: it all seemed so permanent at its peak, so godlike in its power, and then slowly but surely, too many grandiose, unrealistic promises were made to too many elites and constituencies, and then as growth decays to stagnation, the only way to maintain the status quo is to appear to meet all the promises by creating money out of thin air, i.e. debauching...

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Court confirms legal weed should be taxed as tobacco

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

The Federal Administrative Court has upheld a decision by Swiss customs to tax legal marijuana leaves to the same extent as tobacco. In its decision published on Wednesday, the St Gallen court said that “fake” marijuana – i.e. cannabis containing less than 1% tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) – was sold primarily to be smoked, and therefore should be taxed similarly to tobacco.

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FX Daily, March 13: Still Waiting for Brexit Climax

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

The Brexit drama continues to command attention. A vote on leaving without an agreement will be held today, and if that fails, there will be a vote tomorrow on an extension. Meanwhile, the first increase in headline US CPI in four months failed to impress as the year-over-year pace fell to 18-month lows.

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1000-Franc Note Enters Circulation Today

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

1000-franc Banknotes Circulation Today
Issuance of the new 1000-franc note presented a week ago begins today, 13 March. The Swiss National Bank’s ‘Swiss Banknotes’ app has now been updated to include the new note. The app, which has been downloaded some 110,000 times, can be obtained free of charge from the Apple (itunes.apple.com) and Google Play (play.google.com) app stores.

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German Economy Set to Recover

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

German Government Budget Balance, 2002 - 2018
Germany’s economy weakened significantly in the second half of 2018. External headwinds remain strong and, in an environment where monetary-policy ammunition remains limited, all eyes have shifted towards German fiscal policy, especially as the country has generated significant budget surpluses since 2011.

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Downturn Rising, No ‘Glitch’ In Retail Sales

2019-03-13

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2019-03-13

U.S. Retail Sales, Jun 2011 - Dec 2018
You just don’t see $4 billion monthly retail sales revisions, in either direction. Advance estimates are changed all the time, each monthly figure will be recalculated twice after its initial release. Typically, though, the subsequent revisions are minor rarely amounting to a billion. Four times that?

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FX Daily, March 12: Wave of Optimism Sweeps through the Capital Markets

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

Last minutes statements meant to clarify what many MPs find to be the most odious part of the Withdrawal Bill, the backstop for the Irish border is goosed global equity markets even though it does not seem as if the Withdrawal Bill has changed one iota. And after the big rally in US shares yesterday, there might have been follow-through buying in any case today. Asian markets did not disappoint.

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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Here’s The Problem: The Pie Is Shrinking

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
Scrape away the churn and distraction and the problem is simple: the pie of prosperity is shrinking, and the "fixes" are failing. The status quo arrangement is based on the endless expansion of "growth" and debt, which is the monetary fuel of more, more, more of everything: money, energy, resources, goods, services, jobs, wealth and income, all of which make up the elixir of prosperity.

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