Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.

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FX Weekly Preview: Same Three Drivers in the Week Ahead but Changing Tones

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Three themes have dominated the investment climate:  US-China tensions, Brexit, and the policy response to the disinflationary forces.  None have been resolved, which contributes to the uncertainty for businesses, households, and investors.  However, the negativity that has prevailed is receding a little. 

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Zurich homes market in highly overvalued territory, says UBS

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Every quarter UBS, a bank, publishes its real estate bubble index, a report that covers real estate prices in 24 cities around the world. In the third quarter of 2019, Munich was listed as the most overvalued housing market in the world. Bubble risk was highest in Munich, Toronto, Hong Kong and Amsterdam. Frankfurt, Vancouver and Paris.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

EM benefited greatly from the improvement in US-China trade relations and quite possibly Brexit.  The dollar is likely to remain under some pressure near-term as a result. Yet we must caution investors against getting too optimistic.  The details of the partial trade deal still need to be worked out, while existing tariffs will still remain in place if the deal is signed next month as most expect.

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Why Switzerland ranks near the top of the 2019 global competitiveness ranking

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Switzerland made the the top 5, after dropping from 4th to 5th, in this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) Global Competitiveness Index. Switzerland’s decline was largely due to a down weighting of a factor where it is strong, according to WEF’s Saadia Zahidi. The Global Competitive Index measures performance in 114 areas that influence a nation’s productivity.

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The Ultimate Heresy: Technology Can’t Fix What’s Broken

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip, 2012-2016
Technology can't fix what's broken, because what's broken is our entire system.. The ultimate heresy in today's world isn't religious or political: it's refusing to believe that technology can not only solve all our problems, it will do so painlessly and without any sacrifice. Anyone who dares to question this orthodoxy is instantly declared an anti-progress (gasp!) Luddite, i.e. a heretic in league with the Devil.

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Fed Chair Powell’s Inescapable Contradiction

2019-10-14

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2019-10-14

Conflict and contradiction. These were two of the main themes reverberating around the world of centralized monetary planning this week. On Tuesday, for instance, a novel and contradictory central banker parlance – “reserve management purposes” – was birthed into existence by Fed Chair Jay Powell. We will have more on this later on. But first, to best appreciate the contradiction, we must present the conflict.

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EU removes Switzerland from tax haven list

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

In December 2017, the European Union (EU) set up a blacklist and a grey list of tax havens, countries it deemed were being used to help companies and wealthy individuals reduce their tax bills. Switzerland ended up on the grey list. Nations on these lists faced reputational damage and stricter controls on financial transactions with the EU.

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Never Attribute To Malice What Is Easily Explained By Those Attributing Anything To Term Premiums

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

US Treasury CMT Yields, 2017-2019
There will be more opportunities ahead to talk about the not-QE, non-LSAP which as of today still doesn’t have a catchy title. In other words, don’t call it a QE because a QE is an LSAP not an SSAP. The former is a large scale asset purchase plan intended on stimulating the financial system therefore economy. That’s what it intends to do, leaving the issue of what it actually does an open question.

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Cashflow crisis looms over UN in Geneva

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

The United Nations is facing a serious cashflow crisis, as 63 states – including its largest contributor, the United States – have not paid their annual dues. In Geneva, officials at the UN’s European headquarters (UNOG) are considering ways to cut costs, while the host nation looks on anxiously.

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CPI Changes On Energy: The Inflation Check

2019-10-13

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2019-10-13

CPI Changes on Energy, 1995-2019
After constantly running through what the FOMC gets (very) wrong, let’s give them some credit for what they got right. Though this will end up as a backhanded compliment, still. After having spent all of 2018 forecasting accelerating inflation indices, from around New Year’s Day forward policymakers notably changed their tune.

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Dollar Remains Soft as Risk-On Sentiment Continues

2019-10-12

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2019-10-12

Markets have seized on the possibility of a partial trade deal as well as some hopes that a hard Brexit will be avoided. The main event for the day will be President Trump’s meeting with Vice Premier Liu He. These market movements (if sustained) will take pressure off of the Fed to cut rates this month. The notion of a “pathway” to a Brexit deal continues to capture investors’ imagination.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Doom & Gloom, Good Grief

2019-10-12

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2019-10-12

Economic Growth & Investment, October 2019
When I first got in this business oh so many years ago, my mentor told me that I shouldn’t waste my time worrying about the things everyone else was worrying about. As I’ve related in these missives before, he called those things “well worried”. His point was that once everyone was aware of something it was priced into the market and not worth your time.

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State railway company beset with fresh problems 

2019-10-12

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2019-10-12

All the Swiss Federal Railways’ new Bombardier double-decker trains will have to go in for repairs for certain parts to be replaced, it has emerged. The news of the latest technical problems was broken by Swiss public television SRF, citing internal documents. At present, 12 out of the 59 Bombardier trains are in operation on a line between Chur (in southeastern Switzerland) and Basel in the northwestern part of the country.

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Floating solar panels unveiled in Swiss Alps

2019-10-12

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2019-10-12

A solar panel project which could power over 6,000 households has been launched in a mountain lake in southwestern Switzerland. The Romande Energie company unveiled the first part of its floating solar project in Bourg-Saint-Pierre on Wednesday after six years of exploratory work. The installation consists of 2,240 square metres of solar panels sitting on a 36-part aluminium and polyethylene frame anchored to the bed of the mountain lake.

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FX Daily, October 11: Nothing Like Approaching the Edge to Focus the Minds

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

Overview: As the edge of the abyss is approached in three distinct areas, there is hope that victory can be snatched from the jaws of defeat. US-China trade talks continue today, and there is hope of a small deal that could lead to the US not hiking tariffs next week. A shift in the UK toward a free-trade agreement with the EU seems to have opened fertile ground in negotiations that could still avoid a no-deal Brexit.

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USD/CHF: Bulls have eyes on a break into the 1.000s in pursuit of channel resistance

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

USD/CHF levels
USD/CHF has met a confluence of support as the US Dollar extends higher. Latest positioning data shows that CHF net shorts had been climbing for a third week. FOMC minutes at the top of the hour is next major risk. USD/CHF has met a confluence of support as the US Dollar extends higher on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's Minutes today and US consumer Price Index tomorrow. 

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EU removes Switzerland from tax haven lists 

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

Switzerland has acknowledged the fact that European Union will remove the country from its grey list for tax havens following a reform of the corporate tax system. “Switzerland meets and implements international tax standards. The European Union has acknowledged this...” said a statement, released by the State Secretariat for International Finance (SIF), on Thursday.

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Nationalbank und SIX kooperieren bei digitalem Zentralbankgeld

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

Im Kontext des neu gegründeten BIZ-Innovation-Hub-Zentrum in der Schweiz kooperieren die SNB und SIX bei einer Machbarkeitsstudie für digitales Zentralbankgeld. (Bild: Pixabay)Die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) und die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich (BIZ) haben am Dienstag eine operative Vereinbarung zum BIZ-Innovation-Hub-Zentrum in der Schweiz unterzeichnet.

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Geneva commuters fall out of love with cars

2019-10-11

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2019-10-11

Commuters in the Geneva region are becoming increasingly disillusioned with private cars and are embracing “multimodal” forms of transport, a survey has found. An in-depth survey of commuter behaviour in the Greater Geneva region – covering canton Geneva, the Nyon region in neighbouring canton Vaud, and France – has revealed an increasingly negative attitude towards driving.

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