Tag Archive: Mexico
US Dollar Soars and US Rates Jump
Overview: Shortly after the North American markets closed, before any results were known, the market jumped back into the "Trump trade," which it had pared on Tuesday. The dollar and US interest rates soared. The euro is the hardest hit among the G10 currencies today, off about 1.6% and the Canadian dollar, the best performer … Continue...
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Nervous Calm Hangs over the Markets
Overview: A nervous calm hangs over the markets as the US goes to the polls. The proximity of the presidential contest warns that the results may not been known as soon as people hope. Indeed, many fear the voting simply begins the next phase of the contest, with premature declarations of victory and disputes over votes. The dollar is in mostly narrow ranges today, but the Antipodeans and Scandis are the strongest, and the Reserve Bank of Australia...
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US Job Report may Offer Little Relief ahead of Next Week’s US Election and Meetings by Half of the G10 Central Banks
Overview: The first of what promises to be two tumultuous weeks is winding down. The US jobs data is the last big event. It is widely recognized that it will be skewed to the downside because of hurricanes and some mostly temporary factors. Anticipating the market’s reaction is also complicated by the weekend, and reports that Iran may strike back at Israel (through bases in Iraq?), and next Tuesday's US election, and five G10 central bank meetings...
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Eurozone Growth Surprises, Lifts Euro, while UK Budget is Awaited
Overview: The US 10-year yield is off around a dozen basis points off yesterday's high and European growth in Q3 was better than expected. This appears to have encouraged some dollar liquidation today. The greenback is softer against the G10 currencies, but the Canadian dollar and sterling. The much-awaited UK Autumn budget will be announced shortly. Sterling is consolidating around $1.30. Most emerging market currencies also are enjoying a firmer...
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Consolidative Tone in FX Ahead of Key Events and Data
Overview: A consolidative tone is emerging in the foreign exchange market as the week's key events begin tomorrow: UK budget, eurozone and US Q3 GDP, and the US ADP private sector jobs estimate, and quarterly refunding. Outside of the Norwegian krone, which is up nearly 0.5%, the other G10 currencies are largely +/- 0.1%. The yen, Swiss franc, and antipodeans are trading with a slightly heavier bias. Among emerging market currencies, most from the...
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Japan’s LDP Loses Majority, Sending Yen Lower, and Oil Gaps Lower on Middle East Developments
Overview: The next couple of weeks in the capital markets are likely to be tumultuous, and the loss of the LDP majority in Japan get it started. The yen gapped lower amid the immediate uncertainty. The yen is off about 0.5% toward the middle of today's range. Leaving aside the Scandis, where are mixed, the other G10 currencies are little changed, +/- 0.15%. The euro has recovered above $1.08, where options for 2.3 bln euros expire tomorrow....
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Greenback Consolidates
Overview: US interest rates remain firm and the dollar is mostly consolidating against the G10 currencies, in a muted "Turn Around Tuesday." The greenback is straddling the JPY151 area, its best level since the end of July. Despite bearish price action yesterday, the euro, sterling, and Australian dollar have seen limited follow-through selling and modest …
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CSI 300 Drops 7%, Oil Steadies, and the US Dollar Remains Firm
Overview: We suspect the market overreacted to the US jobs data, which was tainted by the lowest "establishment" response in over two decades and seasonal adjustments were likely thrown off by Hurricane Helene and the 33k strike at Boeing. We think Fed officials, and more speak today, have confirmed that it was not the game changer than many market participants think, which was likely influenced by positioning. It did help facilitate the...
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US Rates Extend Gains to Fray 4 percent
The stronger than expected US jobs report triggered a 20 bp jump in the US two-year yield and sent the greenback broadly higher. The market slashed the probability that the Fed would cut by 75 bp in Q4.
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Powell’s Lack of Urgency Helps the Dollar Correct Higher
Overview: Japan will go to polls a little ahead of the US. And the US election still looks too close to call. Canada may be forced into snap elections if the Bloc Quebecois abandon's negotiating with the minority Liberal government as it has threatened to do at the end of the month. The UK's new Labour government is putting together its first budget to be delivered at the end of the month. Among the first tasks of the new French prime minister is...
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Yen Surges After New LDP Leader Picked, while the Greenback Consolidates
Overview: Japan's LDP leadership selection has not been the dragged-out affair that many thought likely with a record nine candidate vying for the post. It turns out that the economy may have been less important than foreign affairs and the threat posed by China. Shigeru Ishiba is strong nationalist, who reports indicate own shares in Nippon Steel, whose bid for US steel has faced domestic opposition in the US on seemingly nationalist, rather than...
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China’s Politburo Validates and Extends Pivot while the US Dollar Sees Yesterday’s Gains Pared
Overview: After its recent losses were extended, the dollar reversed higher in North America yesterday. Technically, this looks to have ended the sharp drop over the last couple of weeks, but there has been no follow-through gains today and a consolidative tone emerged. G10 currencies are firmer today, led by the recovery in the Antipodeans. The Swiss National Bank delivered the expected 25 bp rate cut, but the Swiss franc is up about 0.25%....
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Run on the Dollar Stalls after the Market Boosted Odds of another 50 bp Fed Cut
Overview: Weak US consumer confidence, especially regarding the labor market boosted speculation of another half-point Fed cut in November when the central bank meets again. This weighed on the dollar. Sterling and the Australian dollar rose to new 2 1/2-year highs. The PBOC followed up yesterday's package with a 30 bp cut in the one-year Medium-Term Lending rate. After extending its losses earlier today, the dollar has steadied and turned higher...
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China Goes Big, and Market (Initially) Gives it the Benefit of the Doubt
Overview: News of China's multifaceted support measures have bolstered risk appetites today. The dollar is mostly softer and only the yen and Swiss franc among the G10 currencies have been unable to find traction against the greenback. Most emerging market currencies are also trading with a firmer bias. China's measures include measures to support the stock and housing markets. The seven-day repo rate was cut by 20 bp (to 1.50%) and reserve...
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Little Discussion about the US Budget Deficit in the Debate, But Falling Yields Drag the Greenback Lower
Overview: The US 10-year yield is lower for the eighth consecutive session. The yield was near 3.90% at the end of August. It is now flirting with 3.60%. The two-year yield has fallen 35 bp since the end last month to about 3.55%. Although Vice-President Harris was seen winning last night's debate, it is not clear if it was a more important driver than the continued decline in US rates, despite the budget deficit not the discussed much in the...
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US Dollar Returns Bid on the Back of Firmer Rates
Overview: After falling following the US jobs report before the weekend, US interest rates have come back firmer, helping the give the dollar a boost. A downward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP, reflecting weaker consumption, business investment, and a little more inflation, have heled the greenback retrace the pre-weekend losses against the yen. Softer than expected price gauges, the setback of the yen, and the rise in US rates has seen the offshore...
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Disappointing US Data Followed by Better Japanese Wages and Stronger German Factory Orders Weigh on the Greenback
Overview: The one-two punch of the disappointing US job opening report and the downbeat Beige Book weighs on the US dollar, which is softer against all the G10 currencies. The Canadian dollar is a notable exception. Prime Minister Trudeau's minority Liberal Party lost key support and the Bank of Canada affirmed expectations for more rate cuts. Japan's wage growth was stronger than expected, underscoring the divergence of policy and the dollar was...
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The Dollar is Bid but Ueda Lends Support to the Yen
The dollar is bid as the upside correction that began last week continues today. The greenback is trading above last week's highs against most of the G10 currencies. The yen is the notable exception.
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Corrective Forces Weigh on G10 Currencies, with the Euro Threatening its Largest Loss in Two Months
Business travel prevents the commentary for the next two days. It will return with the September monthly on August 31. Overview: Corrective forces are helping lift the dollar against all the G10 currencies. The euro's 0.5% pullback is the largest in nearly two months. Sterling's 0.3% loss is the most in nearly three weeks. The dollar-bloc currencies are the most resilient and are off less than 0.2% today. Emerging market currencies are more...
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Sterling Shines
Overview: The US dollar is softer against all the G10 currencies but the Japanese yen. Sterling is leading the advance and is at new two-year highs, knocking on $1.3250. More generally, the dollar's consolidative tone remains intact, but it looks like a pause rather than a reversal, especially against the dollar-bloc currencies. The weaker yen is a headwind for most of the regional currencies, including the yuan. Most central European currencies...
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