Tag Archive: macro

December 2025 Monthly

2025-11-29

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2025-11-29

This year marks an inflection point. The re-election of Donald Trump as the US president in 2024 in part reflects an ongoing reevaluation of America’s place in the world by Americans themself. In an idiosyncratic way, and perhaps not fully conscious, the Trump administration’s rhetoric and actions signal the American political elite recognizing the long …

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Week Ahead: Will Renewed Speculation of Fed Cut Next Month Cap the Greenback?

2025-11-22

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2025-11-22

All of the G10 currencies weakened against the dollar last week, and six fell by more than 1%. With the help of an explicit threat to intervene by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the yen bounced almost 0.7% before the weekend and lifted off the 10-month low. The Swiss franc was the weakest of the major … Continue...

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Week Ahead: US Data Resumes and Shifting Central Bank Outlooks

2025-11-15

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2025-11-15

Last week will be recalled as the end of the longest government shutdown in US history. Despite the poor optics and disruptions for many, the lasting impact is likely to be marginal though the shutdown may weigh on Q4 economic activity. Nevertheless, perhaps swayed the comments of most of the 14 Fed officials that spoke …

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Week Ahead: Dollar Recovery Getting Tired

2025-11-08

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2025-11-08

The markets were not impressed with the ADP private sector jobs estimate. Although it increased for the first time since July, the average over the three months through October was 3.3k, the weakest since August 2020. The Dollar Index snapped a five-day advance after the mid-week report and will begin the new week with a … Continue...

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November 2025 Monthly

2025-11-01

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2025-11-01

The world economy is limping into November 2025, buffeted by geopolitical crosswinds, policy fragmentation, and structural shifts that defy easy categorization. Despite record highs in many equity markets, beneath the surface, the global order is being re-engineered—one export restriction, cyberattack, and parliamentary deadlock at a time.US-China Tensions Move Away from the Immediate BrinkLet’s start with …

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Week Ahead: A Most Consequential Week

2025-10-25

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2025-10-25

The week ahead could be one of the most consequential weeks here in Q4. Four G10 central banks meet, and two, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, the market is confident will cut policy rates. The market is also confident that the other two central banks, the European Central Bank and the Bank … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: Impasses Between US and China and Between Republicans and Democrats

2025-10-18

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2025-10-18

There are several moving pieces in the broad macro story that are not going to be resolved in coming days. Although President Trump is playing down a "trade war" with China, it is difficult to see the basis for a deal when he meets with China's Xi at the end of the month in South … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: Politics Pushes Aside Economics

2025-10-11

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2025-10-11

The combination of the policy mix advocated by the woman who is most likely to become the next prime minister of Japan and a series of disappointing German economic data amid a political crisis in France helped lift US dollar. Many trend followers and short-term market participants were caught the wrong way, and the short …

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Week Ahead: US Government Remains Closed, China is on Extended Holiday, and Markets Hardly Notice

2025-10-04

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2025-10-04

The US federal government was forced to close by the inability of Congress to pass a single appropriations bill for the new fiscal year that began October 1. Despite the disruption for government workers and their families, and in projects, which the White House has targeted opposition-led states, the capital markets barely took notice, except …

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October 2025 Monthly

2025-09-27

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2025-09-27

October brings a convergence of pivotal events on both the economic and geopolitical fronts, shaping a volatile global outlook. From looming tariff battles in Washington and monetary policy decisions in Frankfurt to military posturing in Eastern Europe and high-level political signaling in Beijing, this month may set the tone for the final stretch of 2025 and beyond. 

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Week Ahead: Greenback’s Correction can Extend

2025-09-20

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2025-09-20

The US dollar fell through the first part of last week and lows for the year against several G10 currencies were set in the initial reaction to the rate cut by the FOMC. However, Chair Powell press conference and a look at the Summary of Economic Projections were not as dovish the rate cut and … Continue reading »

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Week Ahead: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada to Cut, while BOJ and BOE Stand Pat

2025-09-13

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2025-09-13

The week ahead features five G10 central bank meetings. Two will most likely cut rates, the US and Canada, and two will stand pat, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Norges Bank, Norway's central bank also meets.  It is a close call but we lean slightly in favor of it cutting 25 … Continue reading...

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Week Ahead: US CPI to Temper Aggressive Fed Rate Cut Speculation, French Political Intrigue and Possible Downgrade, while ECB Stands Pat

2025-09-06

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2025-09-06

The poor US employment data fanned speculation of a 50 bp rate cut when the Fed meets on September 17. Even though more unwelcome news from the labor market is expected with next week's BLS annual benchmark revisions that could wipe out 500k-1 mln jobs (the adjustment last year was 818k lower), the risk of …

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September 2025 Monthly

2025-08-30

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2025-08-30

The Federal Reserve is poised to resume its rate cutting cycle in September. Markets briefly flirted with the idea of a 50-basis point move, but sticky core inflation, a larger-than-expected jump in producer prices, and firm retail sales have settled expectations at a quarter-point cut. The Fed continues to describe policy as restrictive, so this …

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Week Ahead: Fundamentals and Technicals Give Greenlight to Sell Dollars

2025-08-23

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2025-08-23

The market was caught leaning the wrong way. Anticipation that Federal Reserve Chair Powell was going to push against speculation of a September rate cut had underpinned the US dollar and short-term rates. The S&P 500 had sold off for five consecutive sessions, the longest losing streak of the year through August 21. Powell said …

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Week Ahead: Will Jackson Hole Confab Show more of the Fed’s Hand?

2025-08-16

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2025-08-16

The US dollar continued to unwind last month's gains. Last week it fell against all G10 currencies, but the dollar bloc. It was more mixed against emerging market currencies. The Argentine peso was the best performer, gaining 2% but the Argentine political and economic conditions appear worsening and a weaker rather than a stronger currency looks needed.

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Week Ahead: Firm US CPI Won’t Deter September Fed Rate Cut

2025-08-09

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2025-08-09

It seems clear that the July jobs data was an important turning point. The two dovish governor dissents from the FOMC's decision to standpat, citing not economic strength like the White House, but recognizing the weakness in the labor market, were not outliers as much as the proverbial canaries in a coal mine. The market …

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August 2025 Monthly

2025-08-02

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2025-08-02

The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's assault on Ukraine ahead of the American deadline, deceleration of US growth, when looking through the trade-related distortion, and …

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Week Ahead: Supportive Dollar Technicals vs Possible Dovish Hold by FOMC and Slower Jobs Growth

2025-07-26

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2025-07-26

We had adopted a working hypothesis that the after recording lows in early July that the greenback was going to retrace the last leg down that began around June 23. That appeared to run its course around July 17. We anticipated last week's pullback. However, the price action warns that the dollar's upside correction may …

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Week Ahead: State of Dollar’s Correction to be Determined

2025-07-19

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2025-07-19

The US dollar rose against the G10 currencies and most emerging market currencies last week. But to the extent the upside correction this month has been spurred by a backing up of US rates, its recovery may be over or nearly so. The US two-year yield settled lower on the week and the 10-year yield … Continue reading...

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