Tag Archive: intervention

Fragile and Consolidative Tone Starts the Week in FX

2024-11-18

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2024-11-18

Overview: The US dollar has begun the new week consolidating in a mixed fashion against the G10 currencies. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda remains circumspect and did not provide guidance about next month's central bank meeting. Without positive guidance, the market sold the yen, but the swaps market shows about 13 bp of tightening has been discounted, up a couple of basis points from a week ago. Leave aside the New Zealand dollar, which is also under...

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Dollar Storms Back (but not Against the Yen) After Fed Signals Low Bar to September Cut

2024-08-01

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2024-08-01

Overview: Neither the FOMC statement nor Fed Chair Powell's press conference dented the markets confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin an easing cycle at its next meeting in September. Yet, the dollar is bid against most of the G10 currencies, but the yen and Swiss franc. The Norwegian krone, apparently helped by a stronger PMI and the recovery in oil prices, is the strongest with a 0.25% gain. Most Asian emerging market currencies, but the...

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Yen’s Surge Continues, while PBOC Surprises with Another Rate Cut, and US 2-30 Year Yield Curve Ends Inversion

2024-07-25

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2024-07-25

Overview: The capital markets are in flux. The powerful short-covering rally of the yen and unwinding of carry trades continues. For the second time this week, the PBOC has surprised by cutting interest rates. The dramatic sell-off of equities continues. The unexpected contraction of South Korea's Q2 GSP (-0.2%) is seen as confirmation of broader economic weakness Speculation of a more aggressive Federal Reserve is gaining ground. It is not that...

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BOJ Appears to have Intervened last Friday Too, but Market Sells Yen Anyway

2024-07-16

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2024-07-16

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in narrow ranges against most of the G10 currencies. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, along with the Japanese yen are off by about 0.25%, but the others are +/- 0.10. The latest BOJ data appears to imply that officials intervened not only last Thursday, but Friday as well. Emerging market currencies are mixed but mostly...

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Market Takes JPY Lower Despite Intervention Speculation, While Sterling Shines

2024-07-12

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2024-07-12

Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating yesterday's CPI-inspired decline. The main features include the market bidding the US dollar back above JPY159 despite more speculation that the BOJ did in fact intervene yesterday and checked on the euro-yen cross in the local session today, and unexpectedly soft Swedish inflation, which the swaps market says could spur three rate cuts here in second half. A record trade surplus and strong aggregate...

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May Day Fed Day

2024-05-01

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2024-05-01

Overview: Much of Asia and Europe are off for the May Day labor holiday. The dollar is mostly softer in the thin activity. However, the dollar has edged higher against the yen and approached JPY158. The euro initially fell to $1.0650, a six-day low and where a billion euros in options expire later today. It has recovered to almost $1.0675. Emerging market currencies are subdued. Central European currencies, the South African rand, and Mexican peso...

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Yen Retreats, while Stronger EMU GDP Underscores Nascent Recovery and Lifts the Euro

2024-04-30

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2024-04-30

Overview:  Stronger than expected eurozone GDP strengthened the sense that a nascent recovery may be taking hold and has given the euro a bid in the European morning. The dollar, though, is enjoying a firmer tone against the other G10 currencies today. Australia's unexpected weakness in retail sales has weighed on the Antipodean currencies. The Aussie and Kiwi are off slightly more than 0.5% today. Japanese data were mixed (a recovery in industrial...

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China PMI is Better than Expected but the Greenback Still Rises above CNY7.23

2024-04-01

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2024-04-01

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly against the G10 currencies as European markets remain on holiday. Narrow ranges have prevailed. The dollar-bloc currencies are leading with minor gains, perhaps helped on the margins by better-than-expected Chinese PMI, but the Scandis, which also typically do well amid a better global growth profile are the laggards. This may speak to the light liquidity conditions. Japan may have missed a tactical...

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Waller Pushes on Open Door: Push for Patience Lifts the Dollar, Complicating Japanese Efforts

2024-03-28

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2024-03-28

Overview: Comments by Fed Governor Waller, urging patience on rates and wanting more evidence that price pressures are moderating has helped the greenback extend its recent gains. The yen is the notable exception as the fear of intervention has restrained the dollar bulls. Poor German data, including a sharp 1.9% drop in February retail sales, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, underscored the euro's negative divergence, and the single...

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CNY7.20 Gives Way as Strong Greenback Proves Too Much

2024-03-22

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2024-03-22

Overview: The dollar's post-FOMC sell-off has been completely reversed and the greenback has reached new highs for the week against most of the G10 currencies. Heightened intervention fears and softer US yields has helped steady the yen, which near unchanged now, and is the best performer. The Scandis and Antipodeans are the heaviest, off 0.65%-0.90%. For the first time since last November, the US dollar has risen above CNY7.20 and continued to...

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Calm Start to the Week, with Little Impact from Russia’s Drama

2023-06-26

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2023-06-26

Overview:  The drama in Russia captured the imaginations but failed to have much impact on the capital markets. Conventional wisdom sees it as a sign of Putin's weakness, but he has been underestimated, including by many Ukrainians who did not think Russia was going to invade despite America's repeated warnings. It may take some time for the implications for the two main protagonists, Wagner head Prigozhin and Defense Minister Shoigu. The war in...

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It is not So Much about the Fed’s hike Today but the Forward Guidance

2022-11-02

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2022-11-02

Overview: A consolidative tone has emerged ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting later today. The focus is not so much on the 75 bp rate hike, but on its forward guidance. Many expect the Fed to signal it will return to a 50 bp move next month, but we are not convinced that it will go beyond indicating that 50 bp or 75 bp will be debated in December, depending on the data. The market has a 5% terminal rate discounted. The Fed does not need to...

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Sterling and UK Debt Market Respond Favorably to the Return of Orthodoxy

2022-10-17

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2022-10-17

Overview: The markets have returned from the weekend with a greater appetite for risk. Equities and bonds are rallying, and the dollar is better offered. China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Indian bourses advanced. Mainland shares edged higher even though Zhengzhou, a city of one million people, near an iPhone manufacturing hub was locked down due to Covid. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up nearly 0.5% to extend its recovery into a third session.

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Week Ahead: Focus Shifts away from the US after Robust Jobs Data and Stronger than Expected Inflation

2022-10-15

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2022-10-15

The latest US employment and inflation figures are passed. The market is confident of a 75 bp rate hike next month. While a 50 bp in December is still the odds-on favorite, the market has a slight chance (~15%) of a 100 bp move instead after the robust jobs report and stronger-than-expected September CPI.

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Can We Look Past US CPI ?

2022-10-13

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2022-10-13

Overview: There seems to be a nervous calm today ahead of the US CPI. The dollar is hovering near JPY147 but the risk of BOJ intervention in the North American session seems slim. The BOE’s emergency Gilt buying operation ends tomorrow and UK bonds yields have tumbled. While equities in the Asia Pacific region lost ground, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is trying to snap a six-day decline.

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Intraday Momentum Indicators Point to a Dollar Recovery After the Employment Report

2022-10-07

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2022-10-07

Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board.

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Markets Remain on Edge

2022-09-14

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2022-09-14

Overview: The firmer than expected US CPI set off a major reversal of the recent price action. It is a two-prong issue. The first is about inflation and the squeeze on the cost-of-living.

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Will the Dollar Recover After CPI?

2022-09-13

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2022-09-13

Overview: The US dollar remains offered ahead of today’s CPI report. Most European currencies are outperforming the dollar bloc, and the greenback is holding inside yesterday’s range against the yen. Most emerging market currencies are firmer, as well.

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Dog Days

2022-08-08

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2022-08-08

The dog days of August for the Northern Hemisphere are here and the capital markets are relatively subdued. Equities are firmer. The notable exceptions in Asia was China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has advanced for the last three weeks.

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Johnson’s Ability to Lead Tories into Victory at Risk with Today’s By-Elections

2022-06-23

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2022-06-23

Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Gains were recorded in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and India, among the large markets, while Japan was mostly flat and South Korea and Taiwan shares fell.

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