Tag Archive: Finance

The Growing Opposition Against the ECB

2019-10-23

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2019-10-23

Few investors and market observers were really surprised when Mario Draghi announced the ECB’s next massive easing package in mid-September. Cutting rates further into negative territory and the revival of QE were largely expected sooner or later, as the “whatever it takes” outgoing ECB President is now faced with a wide economic slowdown in the Eurozone.

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A buying opportunity in precious metals

2019-10-15

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2019-10-15

After a remarkable run over the past few months, gold and silver now appear to have entered a period of consolidation. Many speculators and short-term focused investors have sold their positions fearing a correction, while mainstream market commentators fuel these fears, with analyses that proclaim “the end of the road” for gold and silver.

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A turning point in the bond market?

2019-10-02

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2019-10-02

Yield curve inversions typically precede recessions, 1980-2015
We’ve recently seen a lot of coverage and even more “expert analyses” on the state of the bond market, to the extent that the average investor, or the average citizen for that matter, is likely to be overwhelmed and very confused about what it all means. Experts from the institutional side and defenders of the current monetary direction argue that it is all the result of policy choices, that’s it’s all under control and that we really shouldn’t...

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“The Eurozone faces the worst combination of economic and systemic risk”

2019-09-06

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2019-09-06

The Eurozone faces the worst combination of economic and systemic risk
The past few months have been an exciting time for gold investors, as the precious metal has seen a spike in demand after serious economic concerns and geopolitical tensions unsettled the markets. Many mainstream analysts have pointed to a number of recent events, from the US-China trade war escalations to the inverted yield curve, to explain the recent gold rally.

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THE FED’S CAPITULATION: WHAT IT MEANS FOR GOLD INVESTORS

2019-08-27

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2019-08-27

Fed's Capitulation - Claudio Grass
After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep stock markets afloat and the economic expansion alive.

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“More of the same” at the ECB increases gold’s appeal

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

“The intellectual leaders of the peoples have produced and propagated the fallacies which are on the point of destroying liberty and Western civilization.” Ludwig von Mises, Planned Chaos. It took multiple meetings and over 50 hours of official negotiations for EU leaders to reach an agreement on the appointments for the top jobs of the EU and the ECB, but in mid-July the results finally came in.

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All this borrowing to consume is unsustainable and the bill is overdue

2019-07-06

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2019-07-06

June has been an interesting month for gold, as geopolitical events, market fluctuations and developments on the monetary policy front fueled an exciting ride for the precious metal. As long-term investors with a strict focus on the big picture, short-term moves and speculative angles are largely irrelevant in and of themselves, but they do provide important signals that, without fail, confirm the strategic superiority of precious metals holdings...

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THE PENALTY FOR SAVING

2019-05-30

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2019-05-30

In previous articles, we have outlined in great detail the many faults of the current monetary policy direction of major central banks and the large-scale economic impact of keeping interest rates artificially low. Among the worst offenders is the ECB, that is unapologetically persistent on continuing this exercise in absurdity that are negative interest rates.

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THE CURRENT MONETARY ORDER IS NEARING ITS END

2019-05-13

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2019-05-13

Interview with Dimitri Speck. Given the massive intervention and monetary manipulation experiment by central banks over the last decade, the amount of distortions created in the market, as well as the record debt accumulation at all levels of the economy, have given rise to considerable risks for investors. For a more detailed understanding of these issues and for his outlook, I turned to Dimitri Speck, a renowned expert in the development of...

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Sound money: A Biblical perspective – Part I

2019-04-03

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2019-04-03

Money and Gold
In today’s world, it is obvious that the competition of ideas is under serious threat and with it, the much-needed discussions on how to deal with certain topics or try to understand the world we live in. That is particularly worrying, especially when one considers that the western world went through the process of Enlightenment roughly 200 years ago. In the words of Immanuel Kant:

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Merger mania: Consolidation in the gold mining sector

2019-03-27

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2019-03-27

Metal Mergers 2008-2018
Late last year, Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold miner in terms of reserves, made headlines when it announced its acquisition of Randgold Resources, in an $18bn mega-merger that marked a key moment for the mining industry. In January, United States gold giant Newmont and principal rival of Barrick, made public its own plans to buy Canada’s Goldcorp, the world’s third-largest bullion producer by market value, for $10 billion.

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ECB: running out of runway – Part II

2019-03-03

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2019-03-03

ECB Balance Sheet All Assets, 1999 - 2018
Overall, under Mr. Draghi’s watch, the ECB’s balance sheet has ballooned to a previously unimaginable scale and aggressive policies like the extensive QE program and negative rates have encouraged the accumulation of debt and heavily distorted market mechanisms.

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ECB: running out of runway – Part I

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Euro-area Industrial Weakness, 2010 - 2019
At the end of January, only a month after the official end of the QE program of the European Central Bank (ECB), its President Mario Draghi told the European Parliament’s committee that the central bank could resume its bond purchasing, in a questionable effort to assuage concerns over the impact of the policy change.

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China: Harbinger of Global Economic Decline

2019-02-13

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2019-02-13

China's Slowing Economy
The latest numbers released by China’s statistics bureau fueled widespread concerns about the outlook of the global economy, as the Asian superpower reported its slowest growth rate since 1990. The figures showed a 6.6% growth for 2018, confirming the view that the growth engine of the world economy is running out of steam.

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Venezuela: when fiat money reaches its intrinsic value

2018-12-06

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2018-12-06

Hyperinflation Spiral, 2006-2018
Over the last years, Venezuela has become a modern poster child for the failure of socialism and with good reason. It offers an abundance of lessons and stern warnings for many western nations, but it also provides a very insightful and relevant reminder for individual investors too.

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If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

2018-01-07

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2018-01-07

Organizational Theorist Frederic Laloux’s Five Kinds of Human Organizations
Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). As a currency, it gives rise to a tension between its use as a store of value and as medium of exchange.

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In Unprecedented Intervention, Swiss Central Bank Bails Out Firm That Prints Swiss Banknotes

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

Swiss National Bank
  In the most ironic story of the day, the company that makes the paper that Swiss banknotes are printed on was just bailed out by the money-printing, stock-purchasing, plunge-protecting, savior-of-global equities…Swiss National Bank. While The SNB has a long and checkered history of buying shares in companies… as we have detailed numerous times.

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Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts

2017-12-17

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2017-12-17

Concentration of Traders in the CFTC COTs
Gold and silver COT suggests bottoming and price rally coming. Speculators cut way back on long positions and added to short bets. Commercials/banks significantly reduced short positions. Commercial net short position saw biggest one-week decline in COMEX history. ‘Big 4’ commercial traders decreased their short positions by 28,800 contracts. Seasonally, January is generally a good month to own gold (see table). "If history is still reliable,...

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Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price

2017-12-15

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2017-12-15

Year-end rate hike once again proves to be launchpad for gold price. FOMC follows through on much anticipated rate-hike of 0.25%. Spot gold responds by heading for biggest gain in three weeks, rising by over 1%. Final meeting for Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen does not expect Trump's tax-cut package to result in significant, strong growth for US economy. No concern for bitcoin which 'plays a very small role in the payment system'.

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The Latte Index: Using The Impartial Bean To Value Currencies

2017-12-09

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2017-12-09

The Impartial Bean
Like any other market, there are many opinions on what a currency ought to be worth relative to others. With certain currencies, that spectrum of opinions is fairly narrow. As an example, for the world’s most traded currency – the U.S. dollar – the majority of opinions currently fall in a range from the dollar being 2% to 11% overvalued, according to organizations such as the Council of Foreign Relations, the Bank of International Settlements, the...

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