Tag Archive: federal-reserve

How the Market Responds to US CPI may set the Near-Term Course

2022-01-12

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2022-01-12

Overview:  US stocks built on the recovery started on Monday and Powell's suggestion of letting the balance sheet shrink later this year eased some speculation of a fourth hike this year, which seemed to allow the Treasury market to stabilize. 

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Gold Price News: Gold Down 1% in Wake of More Hawkish Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

2022-01-09

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2022-01-09

Gold price fell to $1,808 an ounce in the wake of the release of the minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting, having hit an intra-day high of $1,829. Silver price fell to $22.72 an ounce from an intra-day high of $23.26.

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Inflation and Geopolitics in the Week Ahead

2022-01-08

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2022-01-08

The Omicron variant may be less fatal than the earlier versions, but it is disrupting economies. The surge in the Delta variant well into Q4 in the US and Europe was already slowing the recoveries.  Investors will likely take the high-frequency real sector data with the proverbial pinch of salt until January data available beginning later this month.

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Start Long With The (long ago) End of Inflation

2021-12-24

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2021-12-24

With the eurodollar futures curve slightly inverted, the implications of it are somewhat specific to the features of that particular market. And there’s more than enough reason to reasonably suspect this development is more specifically deflationary money than more general economic concerns.

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The Chagrin of Beijing and the Problem of Time

2021-12-19

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2021-12-19

The central bank meeting cycle is over. Most of the important high-frequency data has been released until early January. The US debt ceiling has been lifted, avoiding an improbable default. A year ago, there was a sense of optimism, with a couple of vaccines being announced and monetary and fiscal stimulus boosting risk-appetites. Populism, which had been in the ascendancy after the Great Financial Crisis, seemed to be retreating in Europe and the...

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Testing The Supply Chain Inflation Hypothesis The Real Money Way

2021-12-18

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2021-12-18

Basic intuition says this is a no-brainer. Producer prices rise, businesses then pass along these higher input costs to their customers in the form of consumer price “inflation” so as to preserve profits. This is the supply chain hypothesis. Statistically, we’d therefore expect the PPI to lead the CPI.And this was expected for much of Economics’ history, taken for granted as one of those self-evident truths (kind of like the Inflation Fairy). After...

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Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Peaked?

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

The headlines last Friday were ominous: Inflation Hits Highest Level in Nearly 40 Years. Inflation is Painfully High… Groceries and Christmas Presents Are Going To Cost More. Inflation is Soaring..

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Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

2021-12-07

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2021-12-07

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn’t true on a global basis as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs.

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US CPI to Accelerate, while Omicron adds Color to Covid Wave that was Already Evident

2021-12-04

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2021-12-04

At the risk of over-simplifying, there seem to be three sources of dynamism in the investment climate:  Covid, the Federal Reserve, and market positioning.  The last of these is often not given its due in narratives in the press and market commentary, so let's begin there.  The anthropologist Clifford Gertz once posed the question about distinguishing between someone winking and someone with a twitch in their eye, and a person mimicking the wink or...

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Fragile Calm Returns and Powell’s Anti-Inflation Rhetoric Ratchets Up

2021-12-01

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2021-12-01

Overview:  Into the uncertainty over the implications of Omicron, the Federal Reserve Chairman injected a particularly hawkish signal into the mix in his testimony before the Senate.  These are the two forces that are shaping market developments.  Travel restrictions are being tightened, though the new variant is being found in more countries, and it appears to be like closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have bolted. Equities are...

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Sentiment Remains Fragile

2021-11-29

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2021-11-29

Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy.  US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading.  Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer.  The US...

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Jobs (US) and Inflation (EMU) Highlight the Week Ahead

2021-11-27

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2021-11-27

The new covid variant and quick imposition of travel restrictions on several countries in southern Africa have injected a new dynamic into the mix.

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Tech Sell-Off Continues

2021-11-23

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2021-11-23

Overview:  The markets are unsettled.  Bond yields have jumped, tech stocks are leading an equity slump, and yesterday's crude oil bounce reversed.  Gold, which peaked last week near $1877, has been dumped to around $1793.  The tech sell-off in the US carried into the Asia Pacific session, and Hong Kong led most markets lower.  The local holiday let Japanese markets off unscathed, though the Nikkei futures are off about 0.4%.  Australia and India...

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Biden-Xi “Summit” Leaves Markets Unmolested, While Bailey Continues to Blame Investors for Misunderstanding Him

2021-11-16

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2021-11-16

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Overview: The much-heralded Biden-Xi meeting left little impression on the capital markets.  Equities in the region were mixed, and China's main markets fell, alongside Australia, South Korea, and India.  European equities continue their upward market, with the Stoxx 600 gaining for a fifth consecutive session. US futures are softer.  The bond market is quiet, with the US 10-year yield softer slightly below...

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What Might it Take for the Fed to Deliver a Hawkish Tapering Announcement?

2021-11-03

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2021-11-03

Overview: With the FOMC's decision several hours away, the dollar is trading lower against nearly all the major currencies.  The Antipodeans and Norwegian krone are leading.  The euro, yen, and sterling are posting minor gains (less than 0.1%).  Most of the freely liquid and accessible emerging market currencies are also firmer.  The Turkish lira is a notable exception.  The decline in the core inflation and a smaller than expected rise in the...

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Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

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2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

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The Week Ahead: Four Central Banks and the US Jobs Report

2021-10-30

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2021-10-30

The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve meetings are the highlights of the week ahead.  Usually, the US jobs report is the main feature of the beginning of a new month's high-frequency data cycle. However, the FOMC meeting two days earlier may take away some of its significance, even if it still possesses some headline risk.  Two other major central banks meet in the first week of November.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets early on November...

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A Short Note on the Pricing of the Fed Funds Futures: Aggressive

2021-10-14

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2021-10-14

In assessing the trajectory of Fed policy the market is discounting, we prefer using the Fed funds futures contracts over the Eurodollar futures.  The Fed funds settle at the average effective rate, while the Eurodollar futures contracts are three-month deposit rates.

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The Inflation Tide is Turning!

2021-10-09

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2021-10-09

In our post on January 28, 2021 “Gold, The Tried-and-True Inflation Hedge for What’s Coming!” we outlined four reasons that we expect higher inflation over the next several years.

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Soaring Energy Prices Lift Yields, Weigh on Equities and the Greenback Pops

2021-09-28

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2021-09-28

Overview: Rising energy prices and yields are helping lift the US dollar and weighing on equities.  November WTI has pushed above $76, while Brent traded above $80, and natural gas is up for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has risen by about 25%. 

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