Tag Archive: Eurozone Current Account

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the exports the data can have a sizable affect on the EUR.

FX Daily, May 20: Fed Funds Futures No Longer Imply Negative Rates

2020-05-20

by Marc Chandler

2020-05-20

Overview: Another late sell-off of US equities, ostensibly on questions over Moderna's progress on a vaccine, failed to deter equity gains in the Asia Pacific region. China was a notable exception, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth consecutive session. European shares are little changed, but reflects a split.

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FX Daily, March 20: Markets Ending the Week on Better Note

2020-03-20

by Marc Chandler

2020-03-20

Overview: Dramatic price action continues but in the other direction. Stocks and bonds have rallied strongly, and the US dollar is snapping a strong advance with a sharp and broad setback. The immediate trigger is hard to identify. Some accounts linking it to fears that the California shutdown will be repeated throughout the country, deepening the coming downturn.

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors’ Confidence Snaps Back

2020-02-19

by Marc Chandler

2020-02-19

Overview: After shunning risk yesterday, investors re-entered the fray today, and the animal spirits returned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day slide, and China's markets were among the few losers in the region today. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 recovered yesterday's losses in full and is again at record highs. US shares are also trading firmer and are poised to recoup yesterday's decline.

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FX Daily, December 20: Sterling Trades Higher after Test on $1.30

2019-12-20

by Marc Chandler

2019-12-20

Overview: The holiday mood has tightened its grip on the capital markets, and global investors have nearly completely ignored the impeachment of the US President as it has little economic or policy significance. US equities reached new record highs yesterday with the S&P 500 moving above 3200.

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FX Daily, November 19: Hong Kong Stocks Rally as Stand-Off Continues

2019-11-19

by Marc Chandler

2019-11-19

Overview: The run-up in equities continues to be the dominant development in the capital markets. Although the Japanese and South Korean bourses fell, the rise in Australia, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan underpin the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The Hang Seng's gains (1.5% on top of yesterday's 1.3% rise) is notable as the situation on the ground remains intense and unresolved.

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FX Daily, October 18: Markets Becalmed Ahead of the Week

2019-10-18

by Marc Chandler

2019-10-18

Overview: The global capital markets are ending the week on a subdued note as the UK Parliament decision on Saturday is awaited. The weaker Chinese Q3 GDP had little impact outside of China, where stocks fell over 1%. A brief suspension of hostilities by Turkey was sufficient for the US to lift its threatened sanctions.

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FX Daily, March 22: Dollar Trades Off

2018-03-22

by Marc Chandler

2018-03-22

The US dollar has not recovered from the judgment that yesterday's that Fed was not as hawkish as many had anticipated. There was no indication that officials thought they were behind the curve or prepared to accelerate the pace of hikes. Powell is comfortable with the broad policy framework that has been established but seemed to have little time for the summing up of the individual forecasts (dot plot).

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FX Daily, January 19: Dollar Crushed as Government Shutdown Looms

2018-01-19

by Marc Chandler

2018-01-19

The US dollar is broadly lower as the momentum feeds on itself. Asia is leading the way. The Japanese yen, Taiwanese dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, and South Korean won are all around 0.45% higher. Asian shares also managed to shrug off the weakness seen in the US yesterday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7%. It is the sixth consecutive weekly gain. The dollar's drop comes as US yields reach levels now seen in year. The 10-year yield is at its...

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FX Daily, November 17: Euro, Yen and Sterling Regain Footing

2017-11-17

by Marc Chandler

2017-11-17

The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias against the euro, sterling, and yen, but is firmer against the Antipodean currencies and many of the actively traded emerging market currencies. This mixed performance is the story of the week. The US 2-10 yr yield curve is flattening further today with the two-year pushing above 1.70% for the first time since the financial crisis. The 10-year yield is slipping toward the middle of this week's...

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FX Daily, October 20:Tax Prospects Lift Rates and Dollar Ahead of Weekend

2017-10-20

by Marc Chandler

2017-10-20

The US Senate approved a budget resolution that is a necessary step toward using a parliamentary maneuver that prevents the Democrats to block tax reform by filibuster. This has helped spur dollar gains against all the major currencies and nearly all the emerging market currencies.

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FX Daily, September 19: Quiet Tuesday, Follow the Leader

2017-09-19

by Marc Chandler

2017-09-19

Politics seems to dominate the talking points today. Boris Johnson's weekend op-ed has been rejected by May, and there is talk that Johnson may resign or fired. Sterling is consolidating after pulling back yesterday. Carney said that if the UK does hike it will be gradual and limited. The markets did respond dramatically to the BOE minutes and suggestions by even some of the doves that rates may need to be lifted, but there is still a good reason...

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FX Daily, August 18: Dollar and Equities Trade Heavily Ahead of the Weekend

2017-08-18

by Marc Chandler

2017-08-18

The second largest drop in US equities this year has spilled over to drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell nearly 0.5%, snapping a four-day advance and cutting this week's gain in half. The Dow Jones Stoxx did not completely escape the US carnage yesterday, but losses are accelerating today, with a nearly 1% decline following a 0.6% decline yesterday.

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FX Daily, July 20: ECB Game Day

2017-07-20

by Marc Chandler

2017-07-20

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone against the major currencies today. It does not appear to be simply position adjustments ahead of the ECB meeting. Consider that Australia reported strong employment data, and after making new highs, reaching almost $0.8000, it has reversed to toy with yesterday's low. A convincing break of that area (~$0.7910), especially on a closing basis, could be the kind of technical reversal that momentum traders take...

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FX Daily, June 20: Officials Fill Vacuum of Data to Drive FX Market

2017-06-20

by Marc Chandler

2017-06-20

The light economic calendar has cleared the field to allow officials to clarify their positions. Yesterday it was NY Fed President Dudley and Chicago Fed Evans who argued that economic conditions continued to require a gradual removal of accommodation. The Fed's Vice Chairman Fischer did not address US monetary policy directly but did note that housing prices were elevated and that low interest rates contributed.

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FX Daily, May 19: Markets Trying to Stabilize Ahead of Weekend

2017-05-19

by Marc Chandler

2017-05-19

Judging from investors' reactions, the only thing worse that than the low volatility environment is when volatility spikes higher, as it did yesterday. Higher volatility is associated with weakening equity markets, falling interest rates, pressure on emerging markets, a strengthening yen and, sometimes, as was the case yesterday, heavier gold prices.

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FX Daily, April 21: Markets Enter Consolidative Mode Ahead of Weekend

2017-04-21

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-21

Neither the terrorist attack in Paris nor the strong eurozone flash PMI has managed to shake investors. Judging from the social media, many suspect that the terrorist attack plays into Le Pen's hands, but investors do not seem particularly concerned. The French interest rate premium over Germany has narrowed, and gold is flat. UK retail sales fell sharply, yet sterling is holding on to the bulk of this week's gains, which are the most here in 2017.

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FX Daily, February 17: Greenback Stabilizes Ahead of the Weekend

2017-02-17

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-17

The US dollar is finishing the week on a steady to firmer note against the major currencies but the Japanese yen. The softer yields and weaker equity markets often are associated with a stronger yen. For the week as a whole, the dollar is mostly lower, though net-net it has held its own against sterling, the euro and Canadian dollar.

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FX Daily, December 20: Yen Surrenders Yesterday’s Gains, while Euro Struggles to Hold above $1.04

2016-12-20

by Marc Chandler

2016-12-20

FX Performance, December 20, 2016 Movers and Shakers

The yen's incredible ride this year has been recapitulated in recent days. Consider that before last weekend; the US dollar reached a little above JPY118.40. At its extreme yesterday, the dollar fell to JPY116.55. Today it reached traded near JPY118.25 in the European morning, where it was encountering some offers.

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FX Daily, November 18: Revaluation of the Dollar Continues

2016-11-18

by Marc Chandler

2016-11-18

FX Performance, November 18 2016 Movers and Shakers

Since the US election, the dollar has been on a tear. Pullbacks have been brief and shallow. There are powerful trends in place. The euro has fallen nearly five percent over the past ten sessions, during which it is not closed higher once. The dollar rose four days this week against the yen and four days last week.

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FX Daily, October 20: ECB Unlikely to Shake Dollar’s Slumber

2016-10-20

by Marc Chandler

2016-10-20

FX Performance, October 21 2016 Movers and Shakers

GBP/CHF rates have fallen dramatically over the past month, as Sterling continues to find itself under pressure against the major currencies. However, despite these losses it is not all doom and gloom for those clients holding GBP, as Tuesday’s positive spike for the Pound proved. Currency does not move in a straight line and therefore we will see opportunities for those clients holding GBP to take advantage of, even if a sustainable Sterling...

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