Tag Archive: Euro area GDP growth

Euro area’s fiscal policy to turn supportive of growth next year

2018-11-12

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2018-11-12

Euro Area: Fiscal Stance chart
Modest fiscal easing could help counter mounting external risks and slowing growth indicators.Euro area member states have all submitted their 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) to the European Commission (EC) by now. These show that, collectively and based on EU Commission’s autumn forecasts, the euro area’s fiscal stance1 will turn supportive in 2019, although it varies significantly from one country to the next.

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Revising our euro area 2018 GDP growth forecast down

2018-08-01

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2018-08-01

Euro area real GDP growth and EC economic sentiment index, 2005 - 2018
The cut to our growth forecast reflects slippage in euro area data.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 2018, below consensus expectations. This was the weakest growth in two years and is down slightly from GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q in Q1.Following today’s GDP growth data and recent economic indicators, we have revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2018.

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Euro area PMIs on the soft side

2018-07-24

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2018-07-24

Euro Area GDP Growth and Composite PMI, 2005 - 2018
Markit’s euro area flash PMI surveys for July came in on the soft side. The composite PMI for the euro area fell to 54.3 in July from 54.9 in June, below consensus expectations. At the sector level, the manufacturing PMI index rose marginally, putting a halt to six consecutive months of decline.

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Euro area: a slight rebound

2018-07-08

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2018-07-08

Eurozone Markit PMI, 2010 - 2018
The final reading for the euro area composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in June, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.8. However, the manufacturing PMI fell further, to an 18-month low of 54.9, due to weakness in France and Germany.

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Euro area growth: somewhere between hard and soft data

2018-05-04

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2018-05-04

Euro Area Real GDP Growth, 2010 - 2018
According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.4% q-o-q in Q1 2018 (1.7% q-o-q annualised, 2.5% y-o-y), in line with consensus expectations (0.4%) and down from an upwardly revised figure of 0.7% q-o-q for Q4 2017. The implications of the growth slowdown on ECB staff projections should remain limited, in our view.

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ECB closer to the 2% inflation target than meets the eye

2017-12-21

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2017-12-21

During an uneventful ECB press conference on Thursday, attention centred on the new staff projections. The headline projections were in line with expectations, albeit slightly higher on GDP growth and lower on inflation. The key word was “confidence” - in a strong expansion leading to a “significant” reduction in economic slack, as well as in the ECB’s capacity to meet its mandate.

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