Tag Archive: EMU

FX Daily, April 01: China Reanimates the Animal Spirits, While Europe Finds New Ways to Disappoint

Overview:  Better than expected German retail sales ad employments reports at the end of last week has been followed by gains in China's official PMI  and Caixin's manufacturing reading. However, the spillover from China was limited in Asia.  Japan's Tankan survey and outlook disappointed and South Korea's exports and imports were weaker than expected. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Three Highlights in the Week Ahead

Three events next week will shape the investment climate. The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance. The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU. The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.

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FX Weekly Preview: Little Resolution in the Week Ahead

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "you just conquered the world. "Yes'" Alexander wept, " now there is nothing else for me to do."

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Great Graphic: EMU Inflation Not Making it Easy for ECB

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is credited with being the first central bank to adopt a formal inflation target. Following last year's election, the central bank's mandate has been modified to include full employment. To be sure this was a political decision, and one that initially saw the New Zealand dollar retreat.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Investment Climate

The investment meme of a synchronized global upturn has been undermined by the recent string of US and European economic data. The flash March eurozone composite reading fell to 55.3, the lowest reading since January 2017. Although Q4 17 US GDP may be revised higher (toward 2.8% from 2.5%) mostly due to greater inventory accumulation, the curse of weak Q1 GDP appears to be showing its hand again, with forecasts now coming in below 2%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics may Continue to Overshadow Economics

The new monthly cycle of high frequency economic data has begun. The manufacturing PMI shows the synchronized global recovery is continuing. The service sector and composite PMI will be reported in the week ahead. They are unlikely altering the general expectation for robust growth in Q4.

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FX Weekly Preview: Events + Market = Potential for Combustible Price action

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let's briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets.

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US Political Anxiety Stems Bond Sell-Off

Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground.

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Great Graphic: Consumer Inflation: US, UK, EMU

CPI UK CPI US, CPI Eurozone
Price pressures appear to have bottomed for the US, UK, and to a lesser extent, EMU. Rise in prices cannot be reduced solely to the increase of oil. Core prices are also rising.

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The Week Ahead: FOMC, BOJ and More

The last week of April is eventful. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings.  The UK, eurozone, and the US provide the first estimates of Q1 GDP. Japan, the eurozone, and Australia report consumer prices, while the US updates the Fed’s preferred (targeted) inflation measure, the …

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