Tag Archive: EMU
Dollar Consolidates to Start the New Week
Overview: The assassination attempt on former President Trump has injected a new dynamic as his chances of being re-elected appear to have risen. There are a few trades that seem to benefit from a second term: steepening yield curve, weaker Mexican peso, and stronger crypto. The dollar initially strengthened as the market's initially responded, while Tokyo markets were closed for Marine Day. As North American activity is about to begin, the dollar...
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No Turn Around Tuesday as Greenback Remains Firm
Taking the next few days off. Will be back with week ahead commentary on July 6. Overview: The sharp jump in US long-term interest rates has helped lift the greenback in recent sessions and it remains firm against most of the G10 currencies today. The Canadian dollar is the best performer, and it is nearly flat. The intraday momentum indicators warn that after a mostly consolidative Asia Pacific and European morning, the greenback may probe...
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Calmer Markets to Start the New Week
Overview: The US dollar is firmer against most G10
currencies to start the new week. The euro is a notable exception. It is only
slightly higher but confined to a narrow range around $1.07. On the other hand,
most emerging market currencies are firmer, but for a few Asia-Pacific
currencies, including those of China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The Mexican peso
is consolidating but it is also lower on the day. The tone is largely...
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Dollar Comes Back Bid
Overview: The dollar fell alongside US rates
yesterday after the softer than expected CPI. The move on both rates and the
dollar were pared after the FOMC meeting which held rates steady as widely
expected, but the median dot now anticipated one cut this year rather than
three. The dollar has recovered more ground today and is trading with a
slightly firmer bias G10 currencies. However, trading is quiet and mostly
narrow ranges have dominated....
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Double Whammy: US CPI and Federal Reserve
Overview: Position adjustments ahead of today's US CPI and FOMC
meeting are giving the dollar a modestly heavier tone today. Each of these
events are typically a source of volatility in their own right and together
they promise an eventful North American session. The yen is the only exception
among the G10 currencies, but even there, the dollar is holding below
yesterday's highs. Even sterling's relative resilience this week was unmarred
by the...
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Greenback Remains Firm, Still Driest Towel on the Rack
Overview: The US dollar is firm against all
the G10 currencies, except for sterling, which is straddling unchanged levels
after labor market report that showed an uptick earnings remain elevated, and
the unemployment rate ticked up to a new high since September 2021. The dollar
reached a new six-day high against the Japanese yen near JPY157.40. The Chinese
yuan (onshore) fell to new lows since last November as the mainland markets
re-opened from...
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Election Results Lift India But Weigh on Mexico
The dollar has returned from the weekend with a better bid tone. It is firmer against all the G10 currencies but the yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which are marginally firmer. The market seems reluctant to extend the euro or Canadian dollar upticks ahead of the central bank meetings this week, though, ironically, sterling's 0.25% decline leads the major currencies. Election news is a key driver today.
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Japan Confirms Intervention, China’s PMI Disappoints, EMU CPI Firms, Ahead of US PCE Deflator
Overview: The dollar is mostly consolidating
yesterday's losses ahead of month-end and the US income and consumption data. The
PCE core deflator may have risen by 0.2%, the least this, year, but the
year-over-year rate is expected to be steady at 2.8%. The dollar is recovering
from a five-day low against the yen recorded yesterday near JPY156.40 and is
near JPY157.30 in the late European morning turnover. The yen's retreat and a
disappointing...
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Dollar Pulled Back in Europe. New Buying Opportunity?
Overview: The dollar initially extended yesterday's
North American recovery but unwound most of the gains in the European morning. As
North American dealers return, the greenback is lower against most of the G10
currencies. After approaching levels believed to have been where the BOJ last
intervened, profit-taking pushed the dollar back to a marginal new low for the
week (~JPY156.55). The yen's recovery arguably helped the Chinese yuan rise for
the...
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Stocks and Bonds Retreat; Greenback Extends Recovery but Little Changed Ahead of North American Session
Overview: Stocks and bonds are lower today, and the
dollar is slightly firmer having extended yesterday's recovery. Most of the G10
currencies are lower, though the Japanese yen has recovered from after falling
to its lowest level since May 1. Slightly softer than expected German states'
CPI did the euro no favors. It was sold to a three-day low near $1.0830 before
stabilizing. Sterling steadied after dipping briefly below $1.2750. Most
emerging...
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The Greenback is Mostly Softer
Overview: The dollar initially extended its
pre-weekend and yesterday's heavier tone before finding a better bid in the
European morning. Still, as North American dealers return to their posts the
dollar is still mostly softer against the G10 currencies, but it is little
changed to slightly firmer against the Japanese yen. Most emerging market
currencies are firmer, but the South African rand is softer ahead of their
election, the Mexican peso is...
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After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer
Overview: The dollar was aided yesterday
by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has
stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks
divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The
dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate
was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is...
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Consolidative Tuesday
Overview: The dollar is consolidating but with a somewhat
heavier bias today. The G10 currencies are firmer but for the New Zealand and
Canadian dollars, which are slightly softer. Most emerging market currencies
are also firmer, except for a handful of Asian currencies. The news steam is
light. Equities are trading off. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index
snapped a seven-day rally, and Hong Kong shares and the mainland shares that
trade there led the...
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The Dollar Continues To Recover
Overview: The dollar's recovery begun yesterday has
extended into today's activity. The greenback is higher against all the G10
currencies and most emerging market currencies, but the Indian rupee and
Mexican peso. The BOJ did not reduce its bond buying at today's operation and
the market sold the yen on the news. After reaching JPY153.60 yesterday, the
greenback is near JPY156 now. New initiatives to support the beleaguered
property market was not...
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Will USD be Bought on the Fact after Being Sold on Expectations of a Softer CPI?
Overview: The
dollar is trading heavily against the G10 currencies and most of the currencies
from emerging markets. The market expects softer US CPI (and retail sales)
today. Any decline in the year-over-year core rate would put it at its lowest
level since April 2021. Still, this has been anticipated, and the market seems
vulnerable to "sell the rumor, buy the fact" type of activity. After
all, the Fed will see another employment and...
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Consolidative Tone to Start the Week
Overview: The new week has begun off quietly. The
dollar is in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies, +/- 0.15% as the North
American market prepares to open. The Dollar Index is trading inside the narrow
pre-weekend range. With softer US CPI, retail sales, and industrial production
due this week, we have a downside bias for the greenback. Most emerging market
currencies are firmer. A few Asian currencies, including the Chinese yuan and...
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Market Pushes the Yen Lower, Helped by a Broadly Firmer Greenback
Overview: The dollar is firmer against all the G10
currencies today. The market is somewhat less fearful of intervention and the
yen is extending yesterday's losses. It is rivaling the Australian dollar for
the weakest of the major currencies after the Reserve Bank of Australia left
rates on hold and played down speculation of possibility of a rate hike. Both
currencies are off around 0.4% in late European morning turnover. Disappointing
German...
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Yen Slips, Yuan Jumps, Dollar is Mostly Softer
Overview: The dollar is mostly a little softer
today in thin market conditions, with Tokyo, Seoul, and London closed for
holidays. The Japanese yen is the weakest G10 currency, losing about 0.5% and
slipping through last Friday's lows. At first, after Fed Chair Powell
did not endorse rate hike speculation, the market thought he was dovish. But after the
softer than expected jobs data and weakness in the ISM services, the market
shifted from...
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Dollar is Softer Ahead of the Employment Report
Overview: The greenback is trading with a
softer bias ahead of the US jobs report. Solid, even if not spectacular job
growth, is expected. However, recent survey data warns of the downside risks. Moreover,
counter-intuitively, the dollar has not often rallied this year into the
employment data, but frequently has in response. The dollar is softer against
the G10 currencies. The Norwegian krone is the strongest, up about 0.6% after
the central bank...
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Japan Drives Home Message
Overview: The US dollar is mixed, but the
spotlight is on the Japanese yen. It appears that with the market challenging
Monday's intervention, Japanese officials entered the market shortly after the
US equity market closed yesterday, as the Asia Pacific session got underway and
sold dollars again. Initial estimates suggest the intervention amount was
two-thirds of Monday's. The timing caught the markets wrongfooted. Tokyo
markets are closed Friday...
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