Tag Archive: Economics

Oil Shocks & Recessionary Outcomes

2026-04-03

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2026-04-03

After more than three decades of watching oil markets upend economies, one pattern keeps repeating: investors learn the wrong lessons from the last shock. The 1973 OPEC embargo taught us that geopolitical disruptions are temporary. That lesson then got everyone killed, financially speaking, in 1979. The 2003 Iraq War produced only a mild oil bump …

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Why gold’s recent “silence” is a flashing buy signal

2026-04-02

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2026-04-02

The recent “calm” in the gold market has left many observers, and especially the precious metal’s critics, questioning whether the “safe-haven” thesis still stands or whether its time has passed. In the shadow of the ongoing Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the yellow metal failed to deliver the immediate, parabolic spike that many assumed should accompany a global energy crisis. Instead, we witnessed the opposite,...

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Rubino: Fiat Currencies Are In A Death Spiral

2026-03-27

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2026-03-27

The fiat currency collapse narrative is one of the most emotionally satisfying arguments in all of financial punditry. It feels intellectually rigorous, draws on genuine history, and speaks to deep and legitimate anxieties about government overreach, monetary recklessness, and the long-term consequences of unlimited debt creation. Monetary analyst John Rubino makes the case as well …

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Chas Freeman: The flea driving the dog

2026-03-23

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2026-03-23

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary At a time when it takes great courage, and a great appetite for risk, to speak one’s mind freely about the most important issue in the world right now, it sure is reassuring to see that there important voices that still have what it takes to do so. The interview that follows is a prime example of that. Chas Freeman is a highly distinguished retired American diplomat, polyglot, and author with a...

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The Dollar’s Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data

2026-03-20

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2026-03-20

Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold. The BRICS are building a new monetary order. The sanctions that froze $300 billion of Russia’s reserves in 2022 proved, the argument goes, that dollar-denominated assets are …

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General Erich Vad: Make Europe Relevant Again

2026-03-17

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2026-03-17

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary One of the most important dynamics of the war in Ukraine is the growing divide between the political aims of the powers that be and the will of the people who are not directly participating in said war, but are still being forced to pay for it. It is becoming increasingly obvious, and increasingly problematic for those in charge, that the narrative that has been force fed to Europeans to justify...

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Fitzpatrick: Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning

2026-03-13

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2026-03-13

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned. The post Fitzpatrick: Soros CEO & CIO Warns of a Reckoning appeared first on RIA.

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USD Stablecoins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar

2026-03-06

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2026-03-06

The “fiat is dying” argument has become a catchphrase narrative among digital asset bulls, gold bugs, and cryptocurrency advocates. That narrative's core is that central banks have printed vast amounts of money. The "money printing" has led to currency debasement and rendered the U.S. dollar obsolete. We discussed this "debasement" narrative previously. The narrative is …

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Economic Sentiment Belies Strong Economic Estimates

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

Economic growth metrics for the United States have recently shown surprising resilience; however, consumers' economic sentiment has not. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate, real Gross Domestic Product expanded at an annualized rate of just 1.4%, well below expectations and a steep drop from the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. However, …

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Godfrey Bloom: The Futility of War

2026-02-27

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2026-02-27

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary Few individuals can claim to speak with equal authority on both the intricacies of the modern financial and monetary system and the hard realities of military strategy and especially the connection between the two. Trained at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, Bloom served in the British Territorial Army, specializing in logistics and procurement and reaching the rank of Major. He is also a...

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Martin Armstrong: Empires always fail

2026-02-11

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2026-02-11

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary Martin Armstrong has long been known for his very influential work on global capital flow analysis and cyclical economic trends. The forecasting models he designed have anticipated sovereign debt crises and times of geopolitical instability, with his most widely recognized forecasting framework being the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). He has successfully predicted a number of major events,...

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The Reflation Narrative

2026-02-06

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2026-02-06

The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The "reflation narrative" is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation. As I discussed at our recent 2026 …

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General Kujat: War, Diplomacy, and the Risks of Escalation

2026-02-04

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2026-02-04

Part of the upcoming “World War III” documentary Few voices in the European debate on the war in Ukraine can claim to combine actual military experience with sound arguments for diplomatic pragmatism and persistent calls for an end to the conflict. General Harald Kujat stands out even among those precious few. He is a retired four-star general of the German Air Force, he served as Inspector General of the Bundeswehr from 2000 to 2002, the...

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Mainstream Expectations: Hope Vs. Potential Risk

2026-01-30

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2026-01-30

Mainstream expectations, those from Wall Street, economists, and corporate strategists, have congealed around a bullish economic outlook for 2026. Most forecasts project stronger economic growth, with contained inflation, and continued investment in technology and capital expenditure. As such, many institutional investors interpret this as a year of opportunity for markets and corporate earnings.That was a …

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Ron Paul: War Is Bipartisan

2026-01-26

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2026-01-26

First Interview in the “World War III” Series Is Now Live When it comes to opposing war and to raising objections even when it is extremely unpopular and even when one is the only sole voice speaking out against collective madness, there are very few individuals alive today that have repeatedly demonstrated the courage to do so. Even among these select few, arguable no-one has been as consistent, as tireless and as consistently sidelined and...

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World War III: A film that challenges everything we have been told

2026-01-17

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2026-01-17

Over the past decades, and especially in the last few years, war has been radically reframed in the public mind. It’s not raw and brutal bloodshed, senseless destruction and atrocious human pain and suffering. War is no longer seen as an abomination, as the absolute worst case scenario that we must all do our best to avoid. The mainstream media and political leadership of the western world is enthusiastically calling for war, with ominous...

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AI Productivity, Employment and UBI

2026-01-16

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2026-01-16

A funny thing about bull markets is that investors develop a very short memory about the previous bear market. Such is why cycles repeat throughout history as lessons must be learned and relearned. The post AI Productivity, Employment and UBI appeared first on RIA.

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Inflation as a moral hazard 

2025-12-19

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2025-12-19

As I have argued many times in the past, the corruption of money itself and its purposeful devaluation is by far the most important problem facing not just investors and savers, but virtually every single citizen on the face of the planet. Taxation, especially the extremely predatory and aggressive kind that most governments enforce today, might indeed be theft, but inflation is even worse. This is because taxation might be robbery, but at least it...

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What Inflation Alarmists Missed In Their Warnings

2025-12-19

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2025-12-19

Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the … Continue...

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Does AI Capex Spending Lead To Positive Outcomes?

2025-12-12

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2025-12-12

As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, I’ve been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The question I’m addressing here is this: when a company spends massive amounts of free cash flow and takes on increasing debt, in this case for AI CapEx, does …

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