Tag Archive: Economics

Predictions vs. Convictions

2025-01-31

by

2025-01-31

Share this article Separating the signal from the noise Most regular readers and friends will undoubtedly already know what my position is in regards to projections and forecasts. For many years, I have consistently maintained that any and all attempts to “time the market” are as useless as they are unrealistic and I have always urged all responsible and rational investors to be extremely wary and suspicious of anyone that claims they can...

Read More »

Do Money Supply, Deficit And QE Create Inflation?

2025-01-24

by

2025-01-24

I recently debated with Michael Pento, who made an interesting statement that increases in the money supply, the deficit, and a return to quantitative easing (QE) will lead to 1970s-style inflation. The recent experience of inflation in 2021 and 2022 would seem to justify such a view. However, is that historically the case, or was …

Read More »

Year in review: A tectonic shift has only just begun

2024-12-31

by

2024-12-31

Share this article As we’re approaching the final hours of 2024, it is a good time to take a step back and remember what this year taught us. History might not repeat itself, but it does rhyme, as the saying goes, and the past is always the best teacher to prepare us for the future. For many of our fellow humans, 2024 was yet another turbulent year, filled with terrible strife, war, death, pain and indescribable suffering. The two ongoing war...

Read More »

Affordable Care Act & The Inflation Of Healthcare

2024-12-27

by

2024-12-27

When the Obama Administration first suggested the Affordable Care Act following the Financial Crisis, we argued that the outcome would be substantially higher, not lower, healthcare costs. It is interesting today that economists and the media complain about surging healthcare costs with each inflation report but fail to identify the root cause of that escalation. …

Read More »

Economic Indicators And The Trajectory Of Earnings

2024-12-13

by

2024-12-13

Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) provide valuable insights into the economic environment that shapes company profitability. …

Read More »

“THE BIG BULL MARKET IN GOLD AND SILVER HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN”

2024-12-11

by

2024-12-11

Share this article DR. THORSTEN POLLEIT (WWW.BOOMBUSTREPORT.COM) INTERVIEWS CLAUDIO GRASS Thorsten Polleit (TP): On November 5, 2024, Donald J. Trump was elected the new U.S. president with a landslide victory. His declared goal is to take on the “Deep State” and its bureaucracy. His advisor, Elon Musk, is urging the reduction of national debt, and even the inflationary Federal Reserve (Fed) has become a target, described as an evil that must be...

Read More »

The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion

2024-12-06

by

2024-12-06

Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind today’s elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James …

Read More »

The Heartland theory: More relevant than ever?

2024-11-30

by

2024-11-30

Share this article Sir Halford Mackinder’s famous Heartland Theory was first formulated in the early 20th century, but it holds renewed relevance and importance today, especially when analyzed though a critical lens of the current geopolitical system, one that emphasizes individual freedom, limited government intervention, and skepticism of centralized power. Mackinder’s theory posits that control over the “Heartland” — roughly the region of...

Read More »

Paul Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Fixed Income

2024-11-15

by

2024-11-15

Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations. In short, his thesis is that interest …

Read More »

Trump Presidency – Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

2024-11-08

by

2024-11-08

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic …

Read More »

Trump Presidency – Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

2024-11-08

by

2024-11-08

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events. Here are some quick...

Read More »

Gold climbing from record high to record high: why buy now?

2024-10-30

by

2024-10-30

Share this article Part II of II Business as usual” will simply not cut it anymore. The “print and spend” policies of the past, the QE lifelines, the liquidity injections, the zero and negative interest rates, the blatant debasement of the currency, the market manipulation and all the direct and indirect bailouts will not work as they did before.  And it’s not only because the central bankers have overused these “weapons” and have by now...

Read More »

Gold climbing from record high to record high: why buy now?

2024-10-28

by

2024-10-28

Share this article Part I of II There is no question that gold owners have been finally and spectacularly vindicated over the last months: the “barbarous relic”, the “worthless shiny rock”, as many have called the yellow metal, once again proved its value as a true safe haven. In the face of inflation, intense geopolitical turmoil and widespread uncertainty, investors fled to safety “en masse”, as they consistently, repeatedly and predictably...

Read More »

Bastiat And The “Broken Window”

2024-10-18

by

2024-10-18

In times of disaster and destruction, a common narrative often emerges that rebuilding efforts will lead to economic growth. The idea that repairing damage and replacing destroyed goods creates jobs that spur consumption and stimulate economic activity is tempting. However, as French economist Frédéric Bastiat explained in his famous “Broken Window Theory,” this reasoning is fundamentally flawed. Rather than generating net economic benefits,...

Read More »

The permacrisis strategy: the mortal dangers of our “new normal”

2024-10-17

by

2024-10-17

Share this article Over the last years, we have encountered an abundance of alarmist and hysterical “warnings” and admonitions, foretelling the impending doom of the world as we know it. Market corrections have served as an excuse for scaremongers to cultivate panic over a total systemic collapse. Surprising political shifts, like unexpected electoral results, have been coopted to support extreme scenarios, predicting the fall of the current world...

Read More »

GDP Report Continues To Defy Recession Forecasts

2024-10-11

by

2024-10-11

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index,...

Read More »

Technological Advances Make Things Better – Or Does It?

2024-09-06

by

2024-09-06

It certainly seems that technological advances make our lives better. Instead of writing a letter, stamping it, and mailing it (which was vastly more personal), we now send emails. Rather than driving to a local retailer or manufacturer, we order it online. Of course, we mustn’t dismiss the rise of social media, which connects us to everyone and everything more than ever. Economists and experts have long argued that technological advances drive...

Read More »

A new era for silver?

2024-08-28

by

2024-08-28

Share this article It’s been a fantastic year for physical precious metals owners and by many accounts, the best is yet to come. All the issues we’ve been warning against for years, including inflation, currency debasement and government suppression of individual financial liberty have started boiling over in a way that is so obvious, that even the most naive citizen can clearly comprehend.  Despite the efforts by politicians and institutional...

Read More »

Economic Growth Myth & Why Socialism Is Rising

2024-08-16

by

2024-08-16

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report, then why would the Federal Reserve cut rates?” It’s a good question that got me thinking about the trend of economic growth, the debt, and where we will likely be. Since the end of the financial crisis, economists, analysts, and the Federal...

Read More »

UBI – Tried, Tested And Failed As Expected

2024-08-09

by

2024-08-09

A Universal Basic Income (UBI) sounds great in theory. According to a previous study by the Roosevelt Institute, it could permanently increase the U.S. economy by trillions of dollars. While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. What Is A Universal Basic Income (UBI) To understand why the theory of universal basic income (UBI) is heavily flawed, we need to...

Read More »