Tag Archive: ECB

Japan’s Tankan was Uninspiring and UK Disappoints with Contracting Economy in October

2024-12-13

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2024-12-13

Overview: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies to finish out the week. Among the G10, sterling and the yen are the heaviest. Japan's Tankan survey was unimpressive and does nothing to reanimate speculation of a BOJ rate hike next week. Sterling has been dragged down by unexpected news that the economy contracted in October for the second straight month. The euro is being aided by the unwinding of cross positions...

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SNB Slashes Policy Rate in Half

2024-12-12

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2024-12-12

Overview:  The US dollar is mostly softer today, but the tone is mostly one of consolidation. The Swiss National Bank surprised with a 50 bp cut and the franc is the only G10 currency that has not edged up against the greenback today. Australia reported a stronger than expected employment report. This boosted Australian yields and the Aussie, which is the strongest of the G10 currencies. Shortly, the ECB is expected to announce a quarter-point rate...

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US Dollar is Offered and China’s Politburo Promises more Monetary and Fiscal Support

2024-12-09

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2024-12-09

The dollar is offered. Neither the 227k rise in nonfarm payrolls, nor the above 3% Q4 growth that the Atlanta Fed sees the economy tracking, or the uptick in November CPI expected to be reported on Wednesday has been sufficient to dampen speculation of a rate cut next week.

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Will a Solid US Jobs Report Dampen Expectation for a Fed Cut This Month?

2024-12-06

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2024-12-06

Overview: There are two broad developments in the G10 currencies ahead of the US jobs report. The euro, Swiss franc, sterling, Swedish krona, and the Canadian dollar are in tight ranges with a heavier bias. The others are off a 0.3%-0.7%. There have been various distortions, like storms and industrial action, which exaggerated the weakness of the US labor market, which does seem to be slowing but gradually. Today's report should show a rebound, and...

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US-China Exchange Export Restrictions, Yuan is Sold to New Lows for the Year, while the Greenback Extends Waller’s Inspired Losses

2024-12-03

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2024-12-03

Overview: The US dollar has extended the losses scored late yesterday when Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated he was still leaning toward a December rate cut. The odds of a rate cut rose to around 76% from about 66% at the end of last week. The odds are slightly lower today, around 72%. A solid jobs report on Friday and another uptick in CPI may change some minds. The only G10 currency that is weaker today is the Japanese yen, and it is off...

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Markets do Cartwheels in Response to Traditional Pick for US Treasury Secretary

2024-11-25

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2024-11-25

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10...

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US Job Report may Offer Little Relief ahead of Next Week’s US Election and Meetings by Half of the G10 Central Banks

2024-11-01

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2024-11-01

Overview: The first of what promises to be two tumultuous weeks is winding down. The US jobs data is the last big event. It is widely recognized that it will be skewed to the downside because of hurricanes and some mostly temporary factors. Anticipating the market’s reaction is also complicated by the weekend, and reports that Iran may strike back at Israel (through bases in Iraq?), and next Tuesday's US election, and five G10 central bank meetings...

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FX Becalmed Ahead of the Weekend and Next Week’s Big Events

2024-10-25

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2024-10-25

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly, with a slightly firmer today. There has been little follow-through selling after yesterday's setback. The Canadian dollar and sterling are faring best. The yen is a little softer after Tokyo's CPI came in lower as expected due to the government's energy subsidy. The election for the lower house of the Diet is held Sunday. Emerging market currencies are also mostly softer. The JP Morgan Emerging Market...

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The Dollar and Gold Firm

2024-10-21

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2024-10-21

Overview: The US dollar is firm to start the new week. The Japanese yen and Australian dollar are the heaviest with in the G10 (~0.30%). The euro and sterling are trading heavier but inside the pre-weekend range. The market anticipates the Bank of Canada to deliver a 50 bp rate cut in the middle of the week, and the Canadian dollar is threatening to extend its losses for the fourth consecutive week. China's prime lending rates were cut by 25 bp,...

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Tomorrow’s China Briefing Did Not Prevent the Continued Slide in Chinese Stocks Today

2024-10-11

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2024-10-11

Overview: The combination of the firmer than expected US CPI and larger than expected rise in initial and continuing jobless claims saw short-term US rates fall, and the odds of a quarter-point cut by the Fed rose from about 83% to about 93%. The Fed funds futures market boosted the odds of another quarter-point cut in December (~90% vs.78%). The dollar initially weakened but recovered, though the key levels held, such as $1.09 in the euro, $1.30...

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Soft US Headline CPI is Unlikely to Be Sufficient to Reanimate Expectations of another Large Fed Cut

2024-10-10

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2024-10-10

Overview: The US dollar is mostly softer ahead of the September CPI. The euro and Canadian dollar have recorded new lows for the move. The greenback extended its gains against the yen to JPY149.55 but has fallen to new session lows in the European morning near JPY148.85. Given the pushback against Fed Chair Powell's 50 bp cut last month revealed in the FOMC minutes, it will take more than a soft headline CPI today to renew speculation of another...

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Greenback Continues to Trade Heavily amid Heightened Speculation of a 50 bp Cut Wednesday

2024-09-16

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2024-09-16

Overview: The markets are continuing to be impacted by the possibility that Fed officials planted a press report to put 50 bp cut back on the table after the market had moved away from it after the recent jobs data and CPI. In the Fed funds futures, there is around an 80% of a half-point move on Wednesday discounted and about an 80% chance of a second 50 bp cut this year. This has taken a toll on the greenback and cut short the technical correction...

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Heightened Speculation that Fed may Cut 50 bp Next Week Sends the Dollar Lower

2024-09-13

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2024-09-13

Overview: The US dollar is falling against nearly all the world's currencies today amid heightened speculation that a 50 bp cut is still on the table for next week's FOMC meeting. In the derivatives market, the odds are the highest in several weeks. The ostensible trigger was apparently a news wire story by a reporter thought to be used by some Fed officials to foster communication. A few former Fed officials also seemed to endorse a half-point...

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The ECB and the $1.10 level in the Euro

2024-09-12

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2024-09-12

Overview:  The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 currencies. The dollar bloc, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc are sporting slightly softer profiles, while the European currencies enjoy a firmer today. There is more than 3 bln euro in options struck at $1.10 that expire today that still seem to be in play. And there is a large option at GBP1.30 that expires Monday. The ECB's rate decision and President Lagarde's press conference are the...

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Little Discussion about the US Budget Deficit in the Debate, But Falling Yields Drag the Greenback Lower

2024-09-11

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2024-09-11

Overview: The US 10-year yield is lower for the eighth consecutive session. The yield was near 3.90% at the end of August. It is now flirting with 3.60%. The two-year yield has fallen 35 bp since the end last month to about 3.55%. Although Vice-President Harris was seen winning last night's debate, it is not clear if it was a more important driver than the continued decline in US rates, despite the budget deficit not the discussed much in the...

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US Dollar Returns Bid on the Back of Firmer Rates

2024-09-09

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2024-09-09

Overview:  After falling following the US jobs report before the weekend, US interest rates have come back firmer, helping the give the dollar a boost. A downward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP, reflecting weaker consumption, business investment, and a little more inflation, have heled the greenback retrace the pre-weekend losses against the yen. Softer than expected price gauges, the setback of the yen, and the rise in US rates has seen the offshore...

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Corrective Forces Weigh on G10 Currencies, with the Euro Threatening its Largest Loss in Two Months

2024-08-28

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2024-08-28

Business travel prevents the commentary for the next two days.  It will return with the September monthly on August 31.  Overview: Corrective forces are helping lift the dollar against all the G10 currencies. The euro's 0.5% pullback is the largest in nearly two months. Sterling's 0.3% loss is the most in nearly three weeks. The dollar-bloc currencies are the most resilient and are off less than 0.2% today. Emerging market currencies are more...

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What Can Powell Say that the Markets Do Not Already Know?

2024-08-23

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2024-08-23

Overview: The US is consolidating with a softer profile against most G10 and emerging market currencies today, ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole (10 AM ET). He is unlikely to go much beyond confirming what the market already thinks it knows: namely, that the first rate cut will be delivered next month. By acknowledging that the economy has evolved broadly along the lines the central bank expected, it would be a gently push against...

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No, Chicken Little, the Sky is Not Falling

2024-08-09

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2024-08-09

Overview: The most recent data showed that Japanese investors took advantage of the yen's strength last week to buy foreign bonds and stocks. The US weekly jobs claims to their lowest level in four weeks, suggesting that the slowdown in the labor market remains gradual. The sky is not falling. There is no emergency. With a 28% drop in Japanese bank shares in the first three sessions of the month, stress in Japan was acute, but Japanese official...

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Equity Meltdown Continues as Attention turns to the US Employment Report

2024-08-02

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2024-08-02

Overview: Federal Reserve Chair Powell said that although confidence has risen that inflation is on course back to 2%, the Fed is not quite confident enough to cut rates. The market effectively eased for it. Since the FOMC meeting began on Tuesday, the two-year US yield tumbled from 4.40% to 4.10%. The US 10-year yield settled below 4% for the first time in six months. The risk-off spurred by the weaker than expected US manufacturing ISM helped...

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