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Tag Archive: Bear Market

Debasement: What It Is And Isn’t.

2025-08-01

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2025-08-01

Over the past year, financial headlines continue to flood investors with doomsday predictions about the U.S. dollar. Whether it's social media influencers waving "dollar collapse" charts or YouTube personalities warning about debasement, the noise has become deafening. The narrative is seductive: inflation is out of control, the government is printing money, and the dollar is on its last legs.

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Portfolio Benchmarking: 5-Reasons Underperformance Occurs

2025-07-28

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2025-07-28

When markets decline—especially after long periods of sustained growth—the familiar advice resurfaces: "Be patient. Stay invested. Ride it out." The rationale? The market always goes up over time. But there's a critical flaw in this narrative. Your portfolio and a portfolio benchmark are entirely different things. And portfolio benchmarking, or the constant comparison of your …

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Is Private Equity A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing?

2025-07-25

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2025-07-25

In July 2007, just before the financial crisis erupted, Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince summed up Wall Street's dangerous exuberance: “When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing.” Eighteen years later, Wall Street is …

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Retail Speculation Is Back With A Vengeance

2025-07-21

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2025-07-21

Retail speculation is once again gripping the markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted how the latest retail gambling vehicle—zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options—has exploded in popularity. According to CBOE, trading volumes in these contracts have surged nearly sixfold over the past five years, with retail traders now accounting for more than half of all transactions. …

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China’s Economic Demise And Its Impact On The U.S.

2025-07-18

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2025-07-18

Few are as candid and historically accurate as hedge fund manager Kyle Bass when identifying structural breaks in the global economy. In a recent interview, Bass painted a grim but telling picture of China's economic condition, warning: “We are witnessing the largest macroeconomic imbalances the world has ever seen, and they are all coming to …

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Relative Returns Or Absolute. What’s More Important?

2025-07-14

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2025-07-14

A couple of years ago, I wrote about absolute versus relative returns. Given the latest market run, I am getting a lot of questions about chasing returns, and individuals comparing themselves to the S&P 500 index. Historically, trying to beat a benchmark index leads to poor outcomes. However, understanding absolute and relative returns can help …

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Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview

2025-07-11

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2025-07-11

Next week, the Q2-2025 earnings season will begin in earnest as a barrage of S&P 500 companies report, starting with the Wall Street money center banks on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since earnings drive the market by supporting investor expectations, what […] The post Q2-2025 Earnings Season Preview appeared first on RIA.

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The Bull Market Is Alive And Well

2025-07-07

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2025-07-07

The bull market is alive and well, even amid widespread talk of the “death of U.S. exceptionalism.” Early 2025 saw a sharp shift in investor sentiment. Concerns over erratic trade policy, soaring debt, and weakening dollar pressure challenged America’s long-standing market dominance. Markets fell sharply in April and May, feeding a narrative of declining "US …

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SLR: Could It End The Bond Bear Market

2025-06-30

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2025-06-30

On June 25th, the Federal Reserve quietly announced a significant change to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR). While the headlines were muted, the implications for the U.S. Treasury market were anything but. For sophisticated investors, this technical shift marks a subtle but powerful pivot in monetary mechanics. It could create demand for Treasuries, improve market …

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The Fed’s “Transitory” Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

2025-06-27

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2025-06-27

In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed's failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed's position wasn't entirely misguided. Inflation …

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Iran Stuck By U.S.: Markets, Risk, and Rational Investing

2025-06-23

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2025-06-23

Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Currently, I only have the details reported by major mainstream outlets. However, given that stock market futures are trading sharply lower on Sunday, I wanted to get something in print before the market opens relating to navigating this event over the next few days.

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The Dollar’s Death Is Greatly Exaggerated

2025-06-20

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2025-06-20

The narrative surrounding the "dollar's death" as the world's reserve currency has been on the rise recently. However, this happens whenever the dollar declines relative to other currencies. We previously wrote about the false claims of the "dollar's death" in 2023 (see here, here, and here). The recent decline in the dollar relative to other currencies is well within historical norms.

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The Iran-Israel Conflict And The Likely Impact On The Market

2025-06-16

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2025-06-16

The Iran-Israel conflict and equity markets are now in sharp focus. As direct strikes escalated in June 2025, global financial markets responded immediately. Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks from Iran. The Dow dropped nearly 2%, the S&P 500 lost over 1%, and oil prices surged by …

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The Deficit Narrative May Find Its Cure In Artificial Intelligence

2025-06-13

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2025-06-13

Lately, the "deficit narrative" has dominated much of the financial media, particularly those channels that are continual "purveyors of doom." In this post, we will discuss the "deficit narrative," the likely outcomes, and why the cure for the deficit may be found in Artificial Intelligence. The "deficit narrative" has dominated the media lately as President …

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“Buying The Dip” – Here’s A Technical Way To Do It

2025-06-09

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2025-06-09

Recently, I did an interview about "buying the dip" in the market, which generated many comments. Most were, "You're stupid; the market is going to crash," but one comment deserved a more thorough discussion. "When buying the dip, how do you know when to do it, or not?" That is the right question. Of course, you will never know … Continue...

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Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?

2025-06-06

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2025-06-06

It would seem evident that most investors would understand that consumer spending drives economic growth, ultimately creating corporate earnings growth. Yet, despite this somewhat tautological statement, Wall Street appears to ignore this simple reality when forecasting forward earnings. As discussed recently, S&P Global's current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth …

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Buying Stocks Is Always Hard

2025-06-02

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2025-06-02

Buying stocks is always hard. Particularly during corrections. Or, near market peaks. Or, when stocks are falling. And when they are rising. Oh, buying stocks is also tricky when valuations are high. And when they are low. You get the point. There is never the right time when it comes to buying stocks. I recently … Continue reading »

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Ray Dalio Is Predicting A Financial Crisis…Again.

2025-05-30

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2025-05-30

Ray Dalio, the former head of Bridgewater Associates, is back in the media, trying to stay relevant by claiming the "deficit has become critical." " “It’s like ... I’m a doctor, and I’m looking at the patient, and I’ve said, you’re having this accumulation, and I can tell you that this is very, very serious, and …

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The Stealth Bear Market

2025-05-26

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2025-05-26

Is this a "stealth" bear market? Of course, you may be asking yourself what I mean by that. Historically, bear markets have tended to be pretty evident, as highlighted in the chart below. These bear markets are often more protracted affairs that lead to investors developing profoundly negative sentiment towards markets. This article will use …

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The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we …

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