Tag Archive: Bear Market

A Bear Market Is A Good Thing.

2025-12-01

by

2025-12-01

One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from "The Godfather." "“These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten … Continue reading »

Read More »

Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market

2025-11-24

by

2025-11-24

We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale …

Read More »

Full Market Cycles: Half Bull and Half Bear

2025-11-17

by

2025-11-17

Last week, we discussed the importance of "math" as it relates to valuations and noted the importance of understanding "full market cycles." To wit: "The math on forward return expectations, given current valuation levels, does not hold up.  The assumption that valuations can fall without the price of the markets being negatively impacted is also grossly flawed. …

Read More »

Forward Return And The Importance Of Math

2025-11-10

by

2025-11-10

During strongly trending bull markets, investors often overlook the importance of math in predicting forward returns. Such is easy to do when the market just seemingly continues to rise without regard to fundamentals. The current environment is also heavily influenced by the impact of "passive indexing," which has distorted market dynamics as well. However, none …

Read More »

Investor Dilemma: Pavlov Rings The Bell – Draft

2025-11-03

by

2025-11-03

Classical conditioning teaches us a valuable lesson regarding the current investor dilemma. Pavlov's research discovered a basic psychological rule: when a neutral stimulus is repeatedly paired with a reward‑stimulus, eventually it will trigger the same response even when the reward is absent. The famed experiment by Ivan Pavlov illustrated that dogs would salivate at the …

Read More »

Gold Myths Luring Investors Into Risk

2025-10-31

by

2025-10-31

In case you haven't heard, precious metals, particularly gold, have risen sharply this year. Of course, whenever any asset class experiences a more speculative melt-up, investors are quick to rationalize why "this time is different." In stocks, it is about "artificial intelligence" and "data centers." The cryptocurrency community believes all fiat currencies will fail and …

Read More »

The Most Dangerous Era In History

2025-10-27

by

2025-10-27

We live in what Brett Arends claimed as "The Dumbest Stock Market In History," but I believe it is potentially the most dangerous era. That phrase is not hyperbole as it reflects structural distortion, extreme valuations, and an investor base intoxicated by momentum and narrative. The MarketWatch piece puts it bluntly: “At one level, there …

Read More »

Speculative Bull Runs And The Value Of A Bearish Tilt

2025-10-20

by

2025-10-20

The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are …

Read More »

The Psychology Of Investing In A Zero-Risk Illusion

2025-10-17

by

2025-10-17

Every market cycle eventually changes investor psychology to believe risk has been conquered. The storylines may change, from “this time it’s different” to “the Fed has our back,” but the psychology does not. When markets rise steadily and volatility remains low, investors confuse stability with safety. That’s precisely the illusion forming in markets today. The …

Read More »

ChatGPT Gives Financial Advice On Volatile Markets

2025-10-13

by

2025-10-13

Following Friday's selloff amid the resurgence of tariff threats on China, I asked ChatGPT a simple question: " How to Stay Calm In The Stock Market?" That simple question generated an engaging and humorous take on financial advice for navigating volatile markets. In this week's post, I thought it would be helpful to review ChatGPT's advice …

Read More »

Bear Market Losses – A Dangerous Illusion

2025-10-06

by

2025-10-06

When bear market losses occur, headlines talk in percentages: “The market dropped 20 %.” Investors nod. A 20 % decline sounds manageable, historical, and expected. As Ben Carlson recently penned: "Bear markets have some symmetry to them, at least in the short-term. In the long term, bull markets versus bear markets are asymmetric. Things are not balanced. Look at …

Read More »

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Timing The Next Correction

2025-09-29

by

2025-09-29

In the world of technical analysis, there is one reliable indicator for measuring market risk. The relative strength index (RSI) measures overextension (in either direction). Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, the RSI is a momentum oscillator. As such, it measures the velocity and magnitude of price changes, plotting those on a scale from 0 …

Read More »

Markets: Bullish Vs Bearish Case

2025-09-22

by

2025-09-22

Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equities—especially tech and growth—are pushing to fresh highs. Optimism about rate cuts, AI and productivity gains, global …

Read More »

Why Diversification Is Failing In The Age Of Passive Investing

2025-09-08

by

2025-09-08

Diversification has been the backbone of "buy and hold" strategies for the last few decades. It was a boon to financial advisors who couldn't actively manage portfolios, and it created a massive Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) industry that allowed for even further simplification of investing. The message was basic: "Buy a basket of assets, dollar cost …

Read More »

Portfolio Risk Management: Accepting The Hard Truth

2025-09-01

by

2025-09-01

Alfonoso Peccatiello recently wrote an interesting piece on portfolio risk management, starting with a quote from Steve Cohen: ‘’I compile statistics on my traders. My best trader makes money only 63 percent of the time. Most traders make money only in the 50 to 55 percent range. That means you’re going to be wrong a …

Read More »

“Buy Every Dip” Remains The Winning Strategy…For Now

2025-08-25

by

2025-08-25

"Buy Every Dip" has lately been the "Siren's Song" for this market. Such is seen in the flows into ETFs over the course of this year. Retail investors treat pullbacks as temporary noise, and their behavior borders on mechanical. Every sell-off is seen as an opportunity, not a warning. Meanwhile, institutional managers sit it out. …

Read More »

Excess Bullishness & 10-Rules To Navigate It

2025-08-18

by

2025-08-18

There is little doubt that excess bullishness has invaded the general market psyche. Just a couple of months following the market decline in March and April, where sentiment turned exceedingly bearish, the S&P 500 hovers near its highs. Furthermore, analysts are rushing to raise price targets to 7,000 or more.

Read More »

Meme Stock Trading & Livermore’s Approach To Speculation

2025-08-11

by

2025-08-11

Meme stock trading has returned in force. As discussed last week, the fear of missing out (FOMO) continues to dominate investor sentiment. The meme stock movement is again dominated by speculative retail trading driven by online forums, social media hype, and short-term momentum. Unlike GameStop and AMC in 2021, the current cycle revolves around names …

Read More »

The Debt And Deficit Problem Isn’t What You Think

2025-08-08

by

2025-08-08

In recent months, much debate has been about rising debt and increasing deficit levels in the U.S. For example, here is a recent headline from CNBC: The article's author suggests that U.S. federal deficits are ballooning, with spending surging due to the combined impact of tax cuts, expansive stimulus, and entitlement expenditures. Of course, with …

Read More »

Bull Streak Ends As August Begins

2025-08-04

by

2025-08-04

As the turn of the calendar occurred on Friday, the bull streak for the market since the April lows ended. Such was not unexpected, and the correction has been a topic of discussion in our #DailyMarketCommentary over the last two weeks. To wit: "While the overall backdrop remains bullish, including stable economic growth and earnings, …

Read More »