Tag Archive: Bear Market

Permabull? Hardly.

2024-12-17

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2024-12-17

I never thought someone would label me a "Permabull." This is particularly true of the numerous articles I wrote over the years about the risks of excess valuations, monetary interventions, and artificially suppressed interest rates. However, here we are. "Lance, you are just another permabull talking your book. When this market crashes you will still be telling …

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Economic Indicators And The Trajectory Of Earnings

2024-12-13

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2024-12-13

Understanding the trajectory of corporate earnings is crucial for investors, as these earnings significantly influence stock valuations and market performance. Economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) provide valuable insights into the economic environment that shapes company profitability. …

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Portfolio Rebalancing And Valuations. Two Risks We Are Watching.

2024-12-10

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2024-12-10

While analysts are currently very optimistic about the market, the combined risk of high valuations and the need to rebalance portfolios in the short term may pose an unanticipated threat. This is particularly the case given the current high degree of speculation and leverage in the market.

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The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion

2024-12-06

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2024-12-06

Corporations are currently producing the highest level of profitability, as a percentage of GDP, in history. However, understanding corporate profitability involves more than glancing at quarterly earnings reports. At its core, the Kalecki Profit Equation provides a valuable framework, especially when exploring the reasons behind today’s elevated profit margins and what could disrupt them. James …

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Leverage And Speculation Are At Extremes

2024-12-03

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2024-12-03

Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week's #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows …

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Credit Spreads: The Markets Early Warning Indicators

2024-11-26

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2024-11-26

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge …

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“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated

2024-11-22

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2024-11-22

With the re-election of President Donald Trump, the worries about tariffs and pro-business policies sparked concerns of "Trumpflation." Inflation has been a top concern for policymakers, businesses, and everyday consumers, especially following the sharp price increases experienced over the past few years. However, growing evidence shows inflationary pressures continue to ease significantly, paving the way …

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Yardeni And The Long History Of Prediction Problems

2024-11-19

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2024-11-19

Following President Trump's re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable.

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Paul Tudor Jones: I Won’t Own Fixed Income

2024-11-15

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2024-11-15

Paul Tudor Jones recently voiced concerns that rising U.S. deficits and debt and increasing interest rates could lead to a fiscal crisis. His perspective reflects the long-standing fear that sustained borrowing will trigger inflation, raise interest rates, and eventually overwhelm the government’s ability to manage its debt obligations. In short, his thesis is that interest …

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Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic

2024-11-12

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2024-11-12

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board's Sentiment Index. To wit: "Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts." (Note: this survey was …

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Exuberance – Investors Have Rarely Been So Optimistic

2024-11-12

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2024-11-12

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit: “Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.“ (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.) We also discussed households’ allocations...

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Trump Presidency – Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

2024-11-08

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2024-11-08

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic …

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Trump Presidency – Quick Thoughts On Market Impact

2024-11-08

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2024-11-08

The prospect of a Trump presidency has led to much debate and speculation about how markets might react. Depending on what policies are eventually passed, there are potential risks and opportunities in both the stock and bond markets. While the market surged immediately following the election, many potential future headwinds may impact returns from economic growth, monetary and fiscal policy, and geopolitical events. Here are some quick...

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Election Day! Plan For Volatility

2024-11-05

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2024-11-05

With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatility—making it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever …

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Election Day! Plan For Volatility

2024-11-05

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2024-11-05

With Election Day finally here, markets are bracing for potential volatility. History shows that the stock market can react unpredictably to election outcomes, especially when the results are unclear or contested. In past elections, sudden policy shifts, political uncertainty, or contentious outcomes caused heightened volatility—making it essential to prepare your portfolio now to weather whatever the day brings. The S&P 500 has averaged a...

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Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing

2024-11-01

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2024-11-01

Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing …

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Corporate Buybacks: A Wolf In Sheep’s Clothing

2024-11-01

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2024-11-01

Corporate buybacks have become a hot topic, drawing criticism from regulators and policymakers. In recent years, Washington, D.C., has considered proposals to tax or limit them. Historically, buybacks were banned as a form of market manipulation, but in 1982, the SEC legalized open-market repurchases through Rule 10b-18. Although intended to offer companies flexibility in managing capital, buybacks have evolved into tools often serving executive...

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Key Market Indicators for November 2024

2024-10-29

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2024-10-29

Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch. Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial. Seasonality and Breakout...

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Lower Forward Returns Are A High Probability Event

2024-10-25

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2024-10-25

I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade. While we have previously covered many of these article’s points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Let’s start with the overall conclusion from JP Morgan’s article: “The...

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Seasonality: Buy Signal And Investing Outcomes

2024-10-22

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2024-10-22

Seasonality has long influenced stock market trends, offering insights into predictable cycles of strength and weakness throughout the year. Yale Hirsch, the creator of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, is one of the most well-known contributors to studying these patterns. His research has highlighted that certain periods of the year consistently present better opportunities for investors to generate returns, while other times warrant caution. The...

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