Tag Archive: Banxico

Japan’s Tankan was Uninspiring and UK Disappoints with Contracting Economy in October

2024-12-13

by

2024-12-13

Overview: The US dollar is mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies to finish out the week. Among the G10, sterling and the yen are the heaviest. Japan's Tankan survey was unimpressive and does nothing to reanimate speculation of a BOJ rate hike next week. Sterling has been dragged down by unexpected news that the economy contracted in October for the second straight month. The euro is being aided by the unwinding of cross positions...

Read More »

Dovish Hold Sends the Aussie Lower

2024-12-10

by

2024-12-10

Overview: The US dollar is little changed against most of the G10 currencies today. The antipodean currencies are the main exception. A modest change in tone from the Reserve Bank of Australia, boosting the chances of a rate cut early next year sent the Australian dollar back toward yesterday's lows, and the New Zealand dollar fell in sympathy. Most of the G10 currencies sporting softer profiles within the consolidative price action. The greenback...

Read More »

Markets do Cartwheels in Response to Traditional Pick for US Treasury Secretary

2024-11-25

by

2024-11-25

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10...

Read More »

No, Chicken Little, the Sky is Not Falling

2024-08-09

by

2024-08-09

Overview: The most recent data showed that Japanese investors took advantage of the yen's strength last week to buy foreign bonds and stocks. The US weekly jobs claims to their lowest level in four weeks, suggesting that the slowdown in the labor market remains gradual. The sky is not falling. There is no emergency. With a 28% drop in Japanese bank shares in the first three sessions of the month, stress in Japan was acute, but Japanese official...

Read More »

After Hawkish FOMC Minutes, the Dollar Comes Back Softer

2024-05-23

by

2024-05-23

Overview:  The dollar was aided yesterday by the hawkish FOMC minutes and the backing up of US rates. The greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all the G10 currencies. The stronger eurozone PMI masks divergence between Germany and France but keeps the recovery narrative intact. The dollar's broad gains pressured the yuan, and the PBOC's dollar reference rate was set at its highest since January. Favorable guidance by Nvidia is...

Read More »

Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping

2024-03-18

by

2024-03-18

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to stand pat. The...

Read More »

Who Changed: Powell or the Market?

2023-11-10

by

2023-11-10

Overview:  A poor reception to the 30-year Treasury sale and Federal Reserve Powell pledged to raise rates again, if necessary, not exactly a new ground, but it spooked the doves--driving rates sharply higher and fueling a strong dollar recovery. There was a large five basis point tail on the bond sale. The eight-day rally in the S&P 500 and nine-day advance in the NASDAQ was snapped like dry kindling. The S&P 500 comes into today down on...

Read More »

US Interest Rate Adjustment Post-Jobs is Over as the 2-Year Yield Backs Away from 4.50%

2023-02-09

by

2023-02-09

Overview: The capital markets have shrugged off the more than 1% loss of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 yesterday and have jumped back into risk assets. The stocks and bonds have been bought and the dollar sold. Chinese and Hong Kong shares gained more than 1% today. Japan was mixed and Taiwan and South Korean equites saw minor losses. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up over 1%. Nasdaq futures are up nearly 1.2% while the S&P 500 is lagging slightly....

Read More »

High Anxiety: China’s Covid and US Inflation

2022-11-10

by

2022-11-10

Overview: Anxiety is running high. Rather than ease its Covid restrictions, a surge in cases is seeing more areas in China come under restrictions. The US reports CPI and of the ten reports this year, seven of them have been stronger than expected.

Read More »

Fed Unleashes Animal Spirits

2021-12-16

by

2021-12-16

Overview:  The Fed's hawkish pivot came a few weeks before yesterday's FOMC meeting, which confirmed more or less what the market had already largely anticipated. Buy the (dollar) on rumors (of tapering and more aggressive stance on rates) and sell the fact unfolded, and unleashed the risk-appetites which rippled through the capital markets. US stocks rallied yesterday, and the futures point to a gap higher opening today. Large Asia Pacific...

Read More »

Markets Look for Direction, Currencies in Narrow Ranges

2021-08-12

by

2021-08-12

Overview: The global capital markets are subdued today as investors wrestle with the rising virus, the shifting stance of several central banks, and a more tense geopolitical backdrop.  Equity markets are struggling today. 

Read More »

FX Daily, June 25: Tokyo Escapes Deflation, Leaving the Greenback Trapped between Two Expiring Options against the Yen

2021-06-25

by

2021-06-25

New record highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today. China and Hong Kong led the regional gains and were sufficient to lift the MSCI regional benchmark to halt a two-week drop.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 24: Did the PBOC Signal it is Content with the Yuan’s Pullback?

2021-06-24

by

2021-06-24

The US dollar is trading slightly lower against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The Scandis are leading the major currencies, while the Russian ruble leads the central and eastern European currencies higher. Emerging market currencies mostly firmer, though the Turkish lira and South African rand are notable exceptions.

Read More »

FX Daily, June 03: Don’t Believe Sino-American Thaw or Fed’s Corporate Bond Divestment is a Policy Signal

2021-06-03

by

2021-06-03

Market participants appear to be biding their time ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report as they digest recent developments. The dollar is firmer, equities are mixed, and benchmark bond yields are a little firmer. China and Hong Kong shares continue their recent underperformance, while most of the large markets in the Asia Pacific region edged higher.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 14: Softer Yields = Softer Dollar

2021-05-14

by

2021-05-14

The surge in consumer prices reported on Wednesday saw rates jump and the dollar push higher. Stronger than expected producer prices yesterday, and news of wage increases (average 10%) at Mcdonalds and for 75,000 people Amazon wants to hire, saw rates ease and the dollar's upside momentum stall.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 13: Long Lost Bond Vigilantes Sighted, Gives Dollar Fillip

2021-05-13

by

2021-05-13

It is as if the bond vigilantes were pushed too far. US inflation is accelerating more than expected, and it cannot all be attributed to the base effect, and the Federal Reserve, to many investors, is tone-deaf. With powerful fiscal stimulus, nominal growth above 10%, and the economy re-opening, albeit unevenly, does the monetary accelerator need to be fully engaged?

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: US Soars while Rivals are Hobbled

2020-02-10

by

2020-02-10

We are approaching the mid-point of the first quarter, and the coronavirus from China is the new key development for businesses and investors.  The economic impact appears to be still growing as the disruption to supply chains, production, and demand continues.  The re-opening of China from the extended Lunar New Year holiday brought some relief to the markets as officials ensured ample liquidity, leaned against short selling, and offered...

Read More »