Category Archive: 9d) Fund and Hedge Funds

In 10 years, the US government will be $55-60 trillion in debt (which will be 7-7.5 times government revenue) because there will be $25-30 trillion of additional borrowing. That amounts to about $425,000 of debt per American family. When I calculate the supply and demand for this debt, I don’t see enough buyers to buy the debt the US needs to sell, which will cause big problems. We can avoid the worst-case scenario, but we need to act now. To...

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I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year. The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today. I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the...

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History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking...

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I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the recent Trump tariffs and their impact on the global economy. There is a belief that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the United States, I am uncertain of that. You can learn more about why, and what the current big debt cycle the United States is going through in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

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An order is a governing system that helps people deal with each other in a structured way. There are internal orders for governing within countries, and a world order for governing between countries. Orders typically change after wars, when revolutionary new forces defeat weak old ones. When this happens, new agreements and treaties are signed that detail how global governance and monetary systems will work moving forward. And a new world order...

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History tells us the preferred path for government policymakers trying to deal with too much debt is lowering interest rates and devaluing the currency the debt is denominated in. Doing this is a very hidden way of reducing wealth, because as your currency goes down, it makes it look like other things are going up. But despite the downsides, this wealth shrinkage and reduction in buying power is favored by policy makers precisely because its...

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After spending time in Washington, DC discussing the budget deficit with senior people on both sides of the aisle, it’s clear to me that we are unlikely to change the debt trajectory we’re on and avoid the painful consequences. While virtually everyone agrees on the need to address our debt problem in a balanced way that includes tax increases and cuts to benefits, they also agree that they cannot speak up because politics have become absolutist....

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