Category Archive: 9d) Fund and Hedge Funds

What happens when a country mismanages its debt? In 1990, Japanese policymakers decided to deal with its debt obligations by printing a lot of money to buy bonds. They further devalued the currency by giving bondholders significantly lower interest rates than in the US. As a result, Japanese bonds lost 45% relative to US bonds and 60% relative to gold over the next few years. That had a real impact on the average Japanese worker, who lost a...

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The world order is now changing in a way that I described in my book and video Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order. For a complete picture I encourage you to read the book or you can watch the animated video on my channel. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

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In 10 years, the US government will be $55-60 trillion in debt (which will be 7-7.5 times government revenue) because there will be $25-30 trillion of additional borrowing. That amounts to about $425,000 of debt per American family. When I calculate the supply and demand for this debt, I don’t see enough buyers to buy the debt the US needs to sell, which will cause big problems. We can avoid the worst-case scenario, but we need to act now. To...

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I’m very happy to learn that my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle was selected by @barnesandnoble as one of their Best Business Books of the year. The book conveys what I’ve learned over the past 50 years as a macro investor about the mechanics of how countries go broke — and what that means for the US today. I hope you’ll read it and learn about it so that you understand what we’re dealing with, and what you can do to navigate the...

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History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where: 1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts 2) It prints a lot of new money, which devalues the currency and raises inflation 3) Living standards decline, leading to the rise of political extremism 4) Turbulent economic conditions undermine productivity and there is conflict about how to divide the shrinking...

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I’ve gotten a lot of questions on the recent Trump tariffs and their impact on the global economy. There is a belief that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the United States, I am uncertain of that. You can learn more about why, and what the current big debt cycle the United States is going through in my new book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle. #raydalio #principles #politics #economics

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