This article is adapted from a speech delivered at the Mises Circle in Fort Myers, Florida on November 9, 2024.The answer to the question posed in the title is: Yes and No. Yes, some elections have made a significant difference but in general, no, they have not. There are many reasons why elections generally no longer make much of a difference in terms of the economy. One is that for the past half century the average reelection rate of incumbents in the House of Representatives is about 95 percent. It’s lower – about 82 percent – in the U.S. Senate. However, if one subtracts the unusually large turnover in the 1980 election the average is closer to 90 percent. For all practical purposes, once elected to the House it is almost impossible to lose an election. The senate is not too far
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