4-2-26 The Fed Is TRAPPED… And Oil Is The Problem
2026-04-02
#CrudeOil rices are rising, and that’s creating a roblem the Fed can’t fix.
Higher oil ushes inflation u, but it also slows growth by hitting consumers and businesses.
This is a suly shock driven by geoolitics, not demand, so rate olicy has limited imact.
As a result, the bond market is starting to shift focus from inflation risk to weakening GDP.
Historically, oil shocks lead to slower growth, and this time the economy was already soft with weakening emloyment.
The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the downside risk to growth, utting the Fed in a true olicy tra.
📺Full eisode: -Ab5gxKSc
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Stock Market Breadth: Warning Or Opportunity?
2026-03-30
The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to be working. But that index-level headline conceals something far more alarming: stock market breadth has …
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3-26-26 Why Every Investor Is Obsessed With Beta — But Misses This
2026-03-26
Beta measures how a stock tends to move relative to the market, but it’s only a long-term statistical average, not a rule.
In real time, stocks often deviate from that relationship, especially during periods of sector rotation.
Low beta doesn’t automatically mean safety, and high beta doesn’t always mean higher risk.
When leadership shifts, historical patterns break and positioning matters more than labels.
Beta is useful for context, but relying on it alone can lead to poor decisions.
The real edge comes from combining it with momentum, relative strength, and an understanding of where capital is actually flowing.
📺Full episode:
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Register for Our Next Candid Coffee
2026-02-12
Our next Candid Coffee is set for Saturday, February 21, 2026 at 8am with Richard Rosso & Danny Ratliff. It’s an open-forum, kitchen table kind of conversation about what’s on your mind, financially. We’ll launch the conversation with a discussion about annuities, but really, anything is game.
Register today at this link: ttps://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV
#CandidCoffee #Registration #Annuities
Software Or Staples?
2026-02-09
As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, efficiently rotating between overbought and oversold sectors, factors, or stocks is a well-established method for outperforming markets. Like any strategy, the hard part is timing, or properly estimating when a pair of sectors, factors, or stocks is about to reverse their respective trends. Currently, there is a massive divergence …
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The Real Investment Show
2025-12-22
REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:"
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator
12-17-25 Earnings Revision Risk Explained
2025-12-17
Markets are priced for perfection heading into next year. Earnings expectations are unusually high. If those forecasts get revised lower, the market will have to reprice quickly.
In this short video, Lance Roberts explains why high valuations and aggressive earnings forecasts create real revision risk if results fail to measure up.
📺Full episode: -vnHx4Eg
Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow