Tag Archive: U.S. Unemployment Rate=

FX Daily, October 4: The US Jobs Data to Close a Sobering Week

Overview: The recovery of US shares yesterday signaled today's fragile stability. Gains in Japan, Australia, and Taiwan blunted the losses elsewhere in the region, including a 1% slide in Hong Kong.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the third week. China's markets have been closed since Monday and will re-open Monday and may play some catch-up.

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FX Daily, August 2: End of Tariff Truce Trumps Jobs

Overview: The market was finding its sea legs after being hit with wave and counter-wave following the FOMC decision, and more importantly, Powell's attempt to give insight into the Fed's thinking. Trump's tweet than signaled an end to the tariff truce with a 10% levy on the $300 bln of imports from China that have not been subject to action previously.

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FX Daily, July 05: Dollar is Bid Ahead of Jobs Report

Overview: The dovish response to news that Lagarde was nominated to replace Draghi was extended by the dismal German factory order report that has pushed the euro to new two-week lows and kept bond yields near record lows. The focus ahead of the weekend is squarely on the US employment data, where a second consecutive poor report will fan expectations for a large Fed cut to initiate an easing cycle.

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FX Daily, May 03: Ahead of US Jobs Report, the Greenback Remains Firm

Overview: The US April jobs data stand before the weekend, and the greenback is holding on to most of yesterday's gains as participants wait for the report. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mixed without leadership from China and Japan, where the markets remain closed for the extended holiday. On the week, Australia's ASX was the worst performing.

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FX Daily, August 03: Greenback Remains Firm Ahead of Jobs, JGBs Stabilize, Italian Debt Moves into Spotlight

The US dollar is trading at the upper end of its recent ranges against the euro and sterling. The euro finished below $1.16 yesterday for the first time since the end of June and has not been able to resurface that level so far today.

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Look Past Disappointing Jobs Data, Luke

The US jobs report was broadly disappointing. However, the Federal Reserve will look through it and investors should too. A June hike is still by far the most likely scenario. The US created 164k net new jobs in April, and when coupled with the 32k upward revision in March, it was near expectations.

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US Jobs Data Optics Disappoint, but Signal Unchanged

The US jobs growth slowed in March more than expected, but the details of the report suggest investors and policymakers will look through it. The poor weather seemed to have played a role. Construction jobs fell (15k) for the first time since last July, and the hours worked by production employees and non-supervisory worker slipped.

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FX Daily, March 09: Today is about Jobs, but Not Really

The US Administration has softened its initial hardline position of no exemptions for the new steel and aluminum tariffs. There is little doubt that the actions will be challenged at the World Trade Organization and the idea that national security includes the protection of jobs for trade purposes will be tested. At the same time, US President Trump has agreed to meet North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

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FX Daily, February 02: A Note Ahead of US Jobs Report

The US dollar is sporting a firmer profile against all the major currencies after weakening yesterday. Frequently, it seems the Australian dollar leads the other currencies, and we note that it is making a new low for the week today. Briefly, in Europe, it slipped below its 20-day moving (~$0.7985) average for the first time since December 13.

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Given Reprieve Ahead of Employment Report

As the US dollar finished last year, so too did it begin the New Year, and after extending its losses, the bears have paused. Technical factors had been stretched, but it appears to have been old-fashioned macroeconomic considerations to have helped the dollar to move off the mat. Quickly summarized, these considerations are a larger than expected Australian trade deficit, slippage in Japan's service sector PMI, a larger than expected drop in the...

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Headline US Jobs Disappoint, but Earnings as Expected

The headline US non-farm payrolls disappointed, rising by 148k instead of the consensus of 180k-200k. However, the other details were largely as expected and are unlikely to change views about the trajectory of Fed policy or the general direction of markets. It is a very much steady as she goes story.

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What Central Banks Have Done Is What They’re Actually Good At

As a natural progression from the analysis of one historical bond “bubble” to the latest, it’s statements like the one below that ironically help it continue. One primary manifestation of low Treasury rates is the deepening mistrust constantly fomented in markets by the media equivalent of the boy who cries recovery.

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Aligning Politics To economics

There is no argument that the New Deal of the 1930’s completely changed the political situation in America, including the fundamental relationship of the government to its people. The way it came about was entirely familiar, a sense from among a large (enough) portion of the general population that the paradigm of the time no longer worked. It was only for whichever political party that spoke honestly to that predicament to obtain long-term...

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Four Point One

The payroll report for October 2017 was still affected by the summer storms in Texas and Florida. That was expected. The Establishment Survey estimates for August and September were revised higher, the latter from a -33k to +18k. Most economists were expecting a huge gain in October to snapback from that hurricane number, but the latest headline was just +261k.

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FX Daily, November 03: Dollar Firms Ahead of What is Expected to Be Strong US Jobs Data

The US dollar is firm but is not going anywhere quickly. The lack of fresh interest rate support and uncertainty over the US tax proposals, which the Brady, the Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee hopes to have a revised version out after the weekend so the committee work can begin on Monday.

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US Storm-Skewed Report Means Nothing about Anything

US interest rates and the dollar rose in response to the data. It was firm before the report. The US Dollar Index is up for a fourth consecutive week. It is the longest streak since Q1. US 10-year yields are near 2.40%, an area that has blocked stronger gains for nearly six months.

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FX Daily, October 6: Look Through the US Jobs Report

Traders are putting the final touches on another strong weekly performance for the US dollar. Strong economic data, including the PMIs, auto sales, and factory orders have surprised to the market. The ADP report warns that the storms that flattered some high frequency data will likely skew today's employment report (both headline and details) to the downside. Of course, investors will quickly look for the number of people who could get to work due...

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FX Daily, September 01: Manufacturing PMIs, US Jobs, and Implications of Harvey

As the markets head into the weekend, global equities are firmer, benchmark 10-year yields are mostly lower, and the dollar is consolidating after North American pared the greenback's gains yesterday. Manufacturing PMIs from China, EMU, and the UK have been reported, while in the US, the August jobs data stand in the way of the long holiday weekend for Americans.

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Great Graphic: Unemployment by Education Level

The US reports the monthly jobs data tomorrow.  The unemployment rate stood at 4.4% in June, after finishing last year at 4.7%.  At the end of 2015 was 5.0%.  Some economists expect the unemployment rate to have slipped to 4.3% in July. Recall that this measure (U-3) of unemployment counts those who do not have a job but are looking for one. 

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Constructive US Jobs, but Where Do the Euro Bulls make a Stand?

The US created 209k jobs in July and jobs growth in June was revised higher (+9k) to 231k. The underemployment rate was unchanged at 8.6%. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching the cyclical low set in May. This is all the more impressive because the participation rate also ticked up (62.9% from 62.8%).

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