Tag Archive: Japan

FX Daily, July 8: Abe’s Assassination Shocks the World

2022-07-08

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2022-07-08

News that former Prime Minister Abe was assassinated while campaigning in Japan ahead of the weekend election shocked the nation and world. The immediate market impact looks minimal. Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced.

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The Dollar Remains Bid, while Sterling Shrugs Off Johnson’s Political Woes

2022-07-06

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2022-07-06

Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday making new highs against most of the major currencies, including the euro, sterling, the dollar-bloc and the Scandis. The yen and Swiss franc held in better, but the greenback still closed firmly against the yen despite a six-basis point decline in the 10-year yield.

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The Dollar Jumps and the Euro Slips under $1.03

2022-07-05

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2022-07-05

Overview: The dollar is soaring today, and the euro is trading at new 22-year lows having traded below $1.03. Even a 50 bp hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia has failed to prevent a sharp drop in the Australian dollar.

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Macro and Prices

2022-07-02

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2022-07-02

(Combining the weekend macro commentary and price action review in one note.  Check out the July monthly.) Three economic reports highlight the week ahead:  Japan's labor cash earnings at the start of the week and the US employment report and China's CPI at the end of the week.

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Stocks Hit as Central Banks Brandish Anti-Inflation Efforts

2022-06-30

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2022-06-30

Overview: Central banks are committed to combatting inflation even as the economies weaken. This is taking a toll on investor sentiment and is dragging down equities.

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Risk Appetites Improve Ahead of the Weekend

2022-06-24

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2022-06-24

Overview: Equities are higher and bonds lower as the week's activity winds down. Asia Pacific markets rallied, paced by more than 2% gains in Hong Kong and South Korea.

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Angry April TIC Zeroed In On China’s CNY and Japan’s JPY

2022-06-21

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2022-06-21

If the March gasoline/oil spike hit a weak global economy really hard and caused what more and more looks like a recessionary shock, a(n un)healthy part of it was the acceleration of Euro$ #5 concurrently rippling through the global reserve system.

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Prospects of Aggressive Tightening Sends Shock Waves through the Capital Markets

2022-06-14

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2022-06-14

Overview: The markets' evolving expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy is not limited to the Federal Reserve, where the terminal rate is now straddling the 4% area, around 100 bp above late May levels.

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Reserve Bank of Australia Surprises, but Aussie Struggles

2022-06-07

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2022-06-07

Overview: The jump in US interest rates helped lift the greenback to new 20-year highs against the Japanese yen and pushed the euro back below $1.07. US equities saw initially strong gains pared and this set the tone for today’s activity.

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No Pandemic. Not Rate Hikes. Doesn’t Matter Interest Rates. Just Globally Synchronized.

2022-06-06

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2022-06-06

The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time.

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Dollar Gains Pared

2022-06-02

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2022-06-02

Asia Pacific equities were mostly lower.  China and India bucked the trend.  Europe’s Stoxx 600 is steady with no follow through selling after yesterday reversal. US index futures are posting modest gains and are trying to snap a two-day drop. 

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Bank of Canada’s Turn

2022-06-01

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2022-06-01

Overview: The recent equity rally is stalling. Asia Pacific equities were mixed, with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, among the major bourses posting gains. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 500 is slipping lower for the second consecutive session, ending a four-day bounce. US equity futures are little changed.

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Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC

2022-05-20

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2022-05-20

March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that same shortfall before the yield curve then joined the eurodollar futures curve being inverted.

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T-bills Targeted Target

2022-05-20

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2022-05-20

Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe a bit longer, and then clear up as collateral books get balanced in repo like...

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Dollar and Yen Surge

2022-05-12

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2022-05-12

Overview: Global equities are bleeding lower. Several large markets in the Asia Pacific region, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, and India are off more than 2%. Japan and Australian bourses fell by more than 1.5%.

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No Rest for the Weary

2022-05-10

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2022-05-10

Overview: Risk appetites are improving on the margin. Asia Pacific stocks still fell after the sharp losses on Wall Street on Monday. Still, China, Taiwan and Indian equities traded higher. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a four-day 6.5%+ slide and is up around 1.2% in late European morning turnover.

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The Week Ahead: US CPI and PPI Set to Soften

2022-05-07

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2022-05-07

The Fed's 50 bp rate hike is behind us.  Another 50 bp hike is expected next month. The April employment report will do little to calm the anxiety about the "too tight" labor market. 

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The Euro Continues to Stuggle to Sustain Even Modest Upticks, but Specs Still Long in the Futures

2022-05-02

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2022-05-02

Overview: The US dollar begins the new week on a firm note ahead of the mid-week conclusion of the FOMC meeting.  Many centers are closed for the May Day holiday, making for thinner market conditions.  Equities are mostly lower in the markets that traded today.  This includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India in the Asia Pacific. 

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Euro$ #5 in Goods

2022-04-27

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2022-04-27

Last Friday, S&P Global (the merged successor to IHS Markit) reported that its PMI for German manufacturing fell to 54.1. It hadn’t been that low for more than a year and a half. Worse than that, the index for New Orders dropped below 50 for the first time since the middle of 2020. The excuses are plentiful, as there’s COVID, supply problems, Russia, a drop in demand. Wait, what was that last one?

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China, Japan, And The Relative Pre-March Euro$ Calm In February

2022-04-22

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2022-04-22

The month of February 2022, the calm before the latest storm. Russians went into Ukraine toward the month’s end, collateral shortage became scarcity, maybe a run right at February’s final day, and then serious escalations all throughout March – right down to pure US Treasury yield curve inversion.Given that setup, it was unsurprising to find Treasury’s February TIC data mostly unremarkable.

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