Tag Archive: $CNY

Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs

Mexico has been gaining competitiveness over China before last year's depreciation of the peso. The depreciation of the peso, and other US actions can contribute to the destabilization of Mexico. An economically prosperous and stable Mexico has long been understood to be in the US interest.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Forces Underpin Dollar, Equities and Yields

Odds of a March Fed hike edged up last week, and Q4 GDP figures were revised higher. Many continue to expect the new US Administration to pursue pro-growth tax reform, deregulation and infrastructure spending. Although many other high income countries are growing, near trend divergence of monetary policy continues.

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Cool Video: CNBC’s Power Lunch-China and Mexico

Two central banks were particularly active today. Chinese officials appear to be engineering short squeeze that has lifted the yuan 1.2% over the past two sessions. While this does not sound like much, it is a record two-day move, for the still closely managed currency.

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FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the direction on the Franc and clients looking to exchange pounds into Francs or move Francs back to the UK should be considering the path ahead.

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FX Daily, January 05: Dollar Slide but Resilience Demonstrated while Yuan Squeezed Higher

There are two main developments. First, the high degree of uncertainty expressed in the FOMC minutes and the repeated references to the strong dollar spurred a wave of dollar selling. The dollar retreated in Asia, but European participants saw the pullback as a new buying opportunity.

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A Few Takeaways from the Latest IMF Reserve Figures

Overall reserve holdings hardly changed in Q3. China continues to bleed its reserves from unallocated to allocated. Sterling's share of new reserves warns it may be losing some allure.

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FX Daily, December 29: Dollar, Equities and Yields Fall

In thin holiday markets, a correction to the trends seen in Q4 has materialized. The US dollar is heavy. Japanese and European equities are lower. Bonds are firmer.

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You Know what Happened to Nominal Exchange Rates, but What about Effective Exchange Rates?

Yen is up slightly this year on an effective trade weighted basis. The euro has gained about 1% this year on an effective trade weighted basis. Sterling's decline has been significant on an effective basis. The yuan's decline looks to have corrected overshoot and is still holding an 11-year uptrend on the BIS real effective basis.

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FX Daily, December 13: Narrowly Mixed Dollar Conceals Resilience

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. The dollar finished yesterday's North American session on a soft note, but follow through selling has been limited. After rallying to near 10-month high above JPY116 yesterday, the greenback finished on session lows near JPY115.00. Initial potential seemed to extend toward JPY114.30, but dollar buyers reemerged near JPY114.75, and it rose back the middle of the two-day range...

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FX Daily, December 08: Dollar Heavy into ECB

The ECB prolonged its bond purchases, which came unexpected for markets. Consequently the EUR/CHF lost nearly half of its big gains that it registered in the beginning of the week. The ECB expects lower inflation for longer, which makes the life for the SNB harder for longer.

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FX Daily, December 07: Greenback is Broadly Steady While Sterling Slides

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major currencies. Sterling is the notable exception, losing about 0.75% to trade at three-day lows. It was on the defensive in early European turnover but got the run pulled from beneath by the unexpectedly poor data. UK industrial output fell by 1.3% in October. The median forecast was for a small increase.

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FX Daily, November 30: Renewed OPEC Hopes and Month End Featured

Rates for buying Swiss Francs dollars remain incredibly subdued post Brexit but there has been a general improvement over the last month. Rates for the moment appear to have found support over 1.24 for GBP CHF and this has largely come about following the Trump US presidential election victory. Despite a leaked government document titled Have cake and eat it, the markets and sterling were largely unphased.

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Great Graphic: Yen and Yuan Connection

The US dollar has rallied against both the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan since the end of September. Through today, the yen has fallen 9.8% and the yuan has fallen by 3.5%. What they have in common is the rise in US interest rates relative to their own. Since September 30, the US 10-year yield has from below 1.60% to above 2.40% at the end of last week. Japan's 10-year yield has risen from minus nine basis points at the end of September to five...

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FX Daily, November 28: Corrective Forces Seen in Asia, Subside in Europe

As soon as markets opened in Asia, the greenback was sold, and corrective forces that had been nipping below the surface took hold. The euro, which had finished last week below $1.0590, rallied nearly a cent. Before the weekend, the greenback had pushed to almost JPY114, an eight-month high, before closed near JPY113.20. It was sold to almost JPY111.35 in early Asia. Sterling extended last week's gains and briefly poked through $1.2530, to reach...

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FX Daily, September 9: Ahead of the Weekend

The US dollar is lower against all the major currencies this week as North American participants close it out. On the day, the dollar is consolidating swings yesterday and is narrowly mixed.Bond yields are higher and equities are mostly lower. The euro has finished lower the last three Fridays. The streak may end today. The euro has found support nearly $1.1260, and the intraday technicals favor a move higher in the US morning.

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FX Daily, September 5: While Americans were Celebrating Labor Day

There were several developments that took place while US markets were closed for its Labor Day holiday. Most of the economic news was favorable. This included a strong snap back in the UK service PMI, more evidence that the moral suasion campaign to lift wages in Japan is yielding some success and a rise in the Caixin's China's service PMI.

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FX Weekly Preview: Parsing Divergence: Focus Shifts from Fed to ECB

Net-net, the September Fed funds futures contract was little changed on the week. Four high-income central banks meet in the week ahead; the ECB is the only one in play. China accounted for a full three quarters of the US trade deficit in July.

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