Category Archive: Swiss Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator November: Subdued private consumption in 2017 despite solid November figures

The UBS Consumption Indicator climbed to 1.43 points in November from 1.39. Another strong month in domestic tourism and the positive trend on the automobile market made the rise possible. Initially a solid start is to be expected for 2017, but...

Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer December: Unchanged

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer stayed at its previous month’s reading of 102.2. The currently observable sideward trend, at a level slightly above the long-term average, indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at rates close to its...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, November 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.6 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). The slight rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap and petroleum products. Compared with...

November 2016: Swiss consumer price inflation remain lowest compared to Eurozone and U.S.

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see...

Swiss Tourism this Summer: More Swiss Guests, Less Asian Guests

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia. 100'000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of...

Swiss Q3 GDP: +0.0 percent QoQ, +1.3 percent YoY

Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) has remained almost unchanged in the 3rd quarter of 2016 (+0.0%). Consumption was nearly stagnated, while net exports had a decline. But investments increased by 0.5% on the quarter.

Swiss Retail Sales -0.9 percent nominal (YoY) and 1.3 percent real (YoY)

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.9% in nominal terms in October 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.3% compared with the previous month. These...

Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October: Retailers are hoping for good Christmas business

In October, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.47 to 1.49 points. Positive developments in the automobile market and robust domestic tourism continue to support private consumption. However, the slump in the retail sector prevented a stronger...

Employment barometer in 3rd quarter 2016: Employment growth slows

In the 3rd quarter 2016, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (-0.1% compared with the previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period remained unchanged. The Swiss...

Health Care Premiums: Is Swiss Statistics Hiding Inflation?

The latest data releases from Swiss Statistics shows that health care premiums have risen by 3%, while health care prices for consumers have fallen. The reason may be the oligopoly structure of the Swiss health care system. But also that we consume...

Production, orders and turnover statistics of the secondary sector in the 3rd quarter 2016

Industrial production in the secondary sector rose by 1.1% in 3rd quarter 2016 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover also rose by 1.1%. Orders received increased by 6.6% and orders on hand grew by 2.8%. This is shown by...

Swiss Trade Surplus Shrinks in October

In October 2016, Swiss exports were down 5.6% (in real terms: - 10.4%) against the previous year. Imports rose by 1.8%YoY (in real terms: -1%). The trade surplus diminished, after months of rising exports.

Swiss Unemployment Rate (ILO-based) behind Iceland, Germany and Czech Republic on position 4: All Four Countries Are Currency Manipulators

With 4.8%, the Swiss unemployment rate based on the ILO concept is higher than the rates in Iceland (2.6%), Czech Republic (4.0%) and Germany (4.1%), but lower than the ones of the remaining 25 countries. As for youth unemployment, the Swiss are on...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, October 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.2 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in October 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (base December 2015 = 100). While the Producer Price Index declined by 0.1%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.3%. The slight overall...

October 2016: Swiss inflation remain lowest compared to Eurozone and U.S.

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter.

Statistics on tourist accommodation in September 2016: Increase in overnight stays in September

The Swiss hotel industry registered 3.4 million overnight stays in September 2016, which corresponds to a growth of 0.7% (+23,000 overnight stays) compared with September 2015. Domestic visitors registered 1.6 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase...

Swiss Consumer Sentiment Still Lukewarm

The latest survey shows that there was hardly any change in consumer sentiment in Switzerland between July and October 2016*. The index currently stands at -13 points and has consistently come in at a value below its long-term average for over a year...

Swiss real estate market UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 3Q 2016

Risks to the Swiss property market remained elevated in the three months through September, according to UBS Group AG’s quarterly index. “While the buy-to-rent price ratio reached an all-time high, moderate mortgage growth and the slightly-improved...

Swiss Retail Sales -2.7 percent nominal (YoY) and -2.3 percent real (YoY)

Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 2.3% in September 2016 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted...

KOF Economic Barometer October: Index is Climbing

KOF Economic Barometer rose by 3.1 points (from revised 101.6 in September) to 104.7. It thus recovered from its recent summer trough of below the 100 points and stands as high as for the last time in January 2014. Accordingly, the outlook for the...