Category Archive: Swiss Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Tourism accommodation statistics in July 2016: Slight decline in overnight stays in July

The Swiss hotel industry registered 4.1 million overnight stays in July 2016, which corresponds to a decrease of 0.4% (-18,000 overnight stays) compared with July 2015. Foreign visitors generated 2.3 million overnight stays, representing a decline of...

Swiss Retail Sales -2.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -2.2 percent real (YoY)

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.6% in nominal terms in July 2016 compared with the previous year. This decrease has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are...

KOF Economic Barometer August: A Dip below the 100 Points Level

The KOF Economic Barometer, with a current reading of 99.8, showed a drop of 3.7 points in August 2016 (from revised 103.5 in July). The Barometer fell just below its long-term average for the first time since December 2015. The outlook for the Swiss...

UBS Consumption Indicator: Car buyers turn on cruise control

In July, the UBS consumption indicator rose to 1.32 points from 1.21. A slight downward adjustment of the June figure and above-average car sales generated the increase. However, the disappointing June figures for tourism and sluggish consumer...

Swiss national accounts 2015: Slow GDP growth in 2015

In 2015 the Swiss economy registered a growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 0.8% at the previous year's prices (+2.0% in 2014). Taking a slight decrease in the general price level into account, GDP at current prices grew by 0.3% (2014: +1.4%)....

Swiss Industrial Production Q2: Minus 1.2 percent YoY, Construction: Minus 4.1 percent YoY

Industrial production in the secondary sector declined 1.6% in 2nd quarter 2016 in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier. Turnover fell by 2.6%.

Swiss Exports + 7.9 percent YoY, Imports +11.8 percent. Trade Surplus +2.9 bn CHF, Exporters Increase Prices

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity increases, while REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to...

Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2016: Number of employed persons + 1.6%; unemployment rate (ILO) 4.3%

The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.6% between the 2nd quarter 2015 and the 2nd quarter 2016. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased slightly from 4.2% to...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, July 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.8 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index fell in July 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.8 points (base December 2015 = 100). This slight decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products and watches. Compared with...

Swiss Nominal Wages to Rise by 0.8 Percent

The unions are demanding higher salaries for next year. However, gains are realistic only in individual sectors. In addition, can be expected in Switzerland with a lower purchasing power gain. The workers umbrella organization Travail Suisse and the...

Real Estate Bubble Index continues falling, Still in Risk Zone

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index nudged down in 2Q 2016 to 1.32 points and thus remains in the risk zone. This second drop in a row was due to house prices falling in real terms and the declining momentum of mortgage growth. Investments in real...

Switzerland: Situation on the labor market July 2016

At the end of July 2016 there were 139'310 registered as unemployed, 183 more than last month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.1% in June. Compared to the previous month, unemployment increased by 5'556 persons (+ 4.2%). Seasonally adjusted 3.3%,...

Swiss Consumer Price Index -0.4 percent MoM, -0.2 percent YoY

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% in July 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.3 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.2% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the...

Statistics on tourist accommodation in June and in the first half of 2016: Overnight stays decline in first half-year and in June

The hotel sector registered 16.8 million overnight stays in Switzerland during the first sixth months of 2016. This represents a decrease of 1.2% (-199,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 9.1 million...

Swiss Consumer Sentiment Remains Subdued

Consumer sentiment remained unchanged between April and July 2016* and is now below the long-term average for the fifth quarter in a row. Most sub-indices also saw no major change, except regarding inflation, with the 1,200 or so individuals questioned...

Swiss Retail Sales -4.6 percent nominal (YoY) and -3.9 percent real (YoY)

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 4.6% in nominal terms in June 2016 compared with the previous year. The decline has been ongoing since January 2015. This is the largest decline since January 2003. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by...

KOF Economic Barometer July: Prospects for the Swiss Economy Remain Favourable

The KOF Economic Barometer has only changed little and reached a value of 102.7 in July. In June, and therefore before the referendum in the United Kingdom about its membership in the EU, the KOF Economic Barometer stood at a value of 102.6 (revised...

UBS Consumption Indicator: Summer tourism inspires confidence

In June, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.24 to 1.34 points. This was mainly due to a better performance in the tourism industry as well as a slight improvement in sentiment in the retail trade. However, the situation in the labor market is...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, June 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -1.0 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in June 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). Whereas the Producer Price Index declined by 0.2%, the Import Price Index rose by 0.8%. The slight increase...

Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2016: Consumer prices increase by 0.1 percent

The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% in June 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.7 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.4% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the...