Category Archive: Swiss Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss real estate market UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index 4Q 2016

The UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index stood in the risk zone at 1.35 points after a slight increase in the final quarter of 2016. The further increase in the ratio of purchase prices to rents and income reflects increasing interest rate risks. The...

Swiss Retail Sales, December: Down 3.5 percent against last year

Turnover in the retail sector, adjusted for sales days and holidays, fell by 4.3% in nominal terms in December 2016 compared with the previous year. To put this into perspective, however, it should be noted that unadjusted turnover fell by only 0.7%....

KOF Economic Barometer: Soft Drop

The KOF Economic Barometer dropped slightly in January 2017. Compared to its December 2016 value it is now standing at 101.7 points. The standing at a level slightly above the long-term average indicates stable perspectives for the Swiss economy in the...

2016: Swiss Exports and Swiss Trade Balance at New Record-Highs: Swiss Franc Shock Digested

Following a decline the previous year, foreign trade grew again in 2016, with chemicals and pharmaceuticals shaping the trend. Exports climbed by a total of 3.8% (real: - 0.8%) to a record high of CHF 210.7 billion. However, the two other large groups...

Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator December: Automobile market with record year-end results

The UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.45 to 1.50 points in December. The positive trend of last fall continued and signalizes solid growth prospects for private consumption this year. New car registrations in the automobile sector, which are at an...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, December 2016: +0.2 percent MoM, -1.8 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in December 2016 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.0 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.0% in comparison with December 2015. The average annualised inflation rate in 2016 was -1.8%....

Tourism accommodation statistics in November 2016: Slight increase in overnight stays in November

The Swiss hotel industry registered 1.9 million overnight stays in November 2016, which corresponds to a slight growth of 0.5% (+9300 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. Domestic visitors generated 878,000 overnight stays,...

Switzerland Unemployment December 2016, Unemployment by Nationality

Registered unemployment in December 2016 – According to the SECO surveys, 159,372 unemployed were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of December 2016, 10,144 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus rose...

Swiss Retail Sales, Nov 2016: Americans Consume, Swiss Produce or Re-use

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.2% in nominal terms in November 2016 compared with the previous year. This is the first increase since December 2014. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. These are...

Consumer Prices in Europe Compared: The Energy Price Turn-Around

Energy prices in Switzerland turned around from a minus 2.4% in November to a +6.8% in December. Oil prices had seen its trough exactly one year ago. Especially in Germany and Spain, this translated into inflation rates, that are close to the ECB...

Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator November: Subdued private consumption in 2017 despite solid November figures

The UBS Consumption Indicator climbed to 1.43 points in November from 1.39. Another strong month in domestic tourism and the positive trend on the automobile market made the rise possible. Initially a solid start is to be expected for 2017, but...

Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer December: Unchanged

In December 2016, the KOF Economic Barometer stayed at its previous month’s reading of 102.2. The currently observable sideward trend, at a level slightly above the long-term average, indicates that the Swiss economy should grow at rates close to its...

Swiss Producer and Import Price Index, November 2016: +0.1 percent MoM, -0.6 percent YoY

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in November 2016 by 0.1% compared with the previous month, reaching 99.9 points (base December 2015 = 100). The slight rise is due in particular to higher prices for scrap and petroleum products. Compared with...

November 2016: Swiss consumer price inflation remain lowest compared to Eurozone and U.S.

Swiss consumer price inflation remain the lowest in comparison with different countries in the euro zone and the United States. Consumer prices in the U.S. are driven by rising health care costs and asset price inflation in shelter. In Europe, we see...

Swiss Tourism this Summer: More Swiss Guests, Less Asian Guests

In the summer months, the Swiss hotels registered more guests from Switzerland. from the United States and from Europe. But there was a sharp decline of guest from Asia. 100'000 more overnight stays from Switzerland could not recover the decrease of...

Swiss Q3 GDP: +0.0 percent QoQ, +1.3 percent YoY

Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) has remained almost unchanged in the 3rd quarter of 2016 (+0.0%). Consumption was nearly stagnated, while net exports had a decline. But investments increased by 0.5% on the quarter.

Swiss Retail Sales -0.9 percent nominal (YoY) and 1.3 percent real (YoY)

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.9% in nominal terms in October 2016 compared with the previous year. This decline has been ongoing since January 2015. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 1.3% compared with the previous month. These...

Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator October: Retailers are hoping for good Christmas business

In October, the UBS consumption indicator rose from 1.47 to 1.49 points. Positive developments in the automobile market and robust domestic tourism continue to support private consumption. However, the slump in the retail sector prevented a stronger...

Employment barometer in 3rd quarter 2016: Employment growth slows

In the 3rd quarter 2016, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (-0.1% compared with the previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period remained unchanged. The Swiss...

Health Care Premiums: Is Swiss Statistics Hiding Inflation?

The latest data releases from Swiss Statistics shows that health care premiums have risen by 3%, while health care prices for consumers have fallen. The reason may be the oligopoly structure of the Swiss health care system. But also that we consume...