Category Archive: Swiss Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Labour Force Survey in 2nd quarter 2017: Labour Supply: Number of Persons in Employment Rises

The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 1.3% in the 2nd quarter 2017 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) fell during the same period in Switzerland from 4.6% to 4.4%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 8.6% to 7.6%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in July 2017: -0.1 YoY, -0,1 MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index remained unchanged in July 2017 compared with the previous month at 99.7 points (base December 2015 = 100). Petroleum products in particular became cheaper. Prices were higher for scrap, computers and metal products. Compared with July 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.1%.

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Unions demand 2 percent wage increase as economy improves

Staff should start enjoying the benefits of Switzerland’s improving economic performance, says the country’s second-largest trade union group, Travail. Suisse, which is demanding a 2% salary increase for workers. “It’s been some time since the economic perspectives have looked this positive. The forecasts announce solid and lasting economic growth. This recovery must have an impact on employees,” Travail.

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Switzerland Unemployment in July 2017: Remained unchanged at 3.2 percent seasonally adjusted

Registered unemployment in July 2017 - According to the SECO, at the end of July 2017, 133,926 unemployed persons were registered with the regional employment services centers (RAVs), 323 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 5'384 persons (-3.9%).

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Tourist accommodation in the first half of 2017: Overnight stays increased by 4.4percent in the first half of 2017

The hotel sector registered 17.6 million overnight stays in Switzerland in the first half of 2017, representing an increase of 4.4% (+738,000 overnight stays) compared with the same period a year earlier. With a total of 9.5 million overnight stays, foreign demand rose by 4.7% (+428,000). Domestic visitors registered 8.1 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 4.0% (+310,000).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2017: Up +0.3 percent against 2016, -0.3 percent against last month

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in July 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.6 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.3% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Consumers more Optimistic about Economy and Job Market

Consumer sentiment in Switzerland is on the rise again in July. The index reached -3 points – well above the long-term average (-9 points). This confirms the recovery in sentiment from the lows following the sharp rise in the Swiss franc. In comparison to the survey of April, consumers’ expectations for economic growth and for the job market have become considerably more optimistic.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June: 1.1 percent Nominal and 0.5 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in June 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.5% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays rose by 1.5% in June 2017 compared with the previous year.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey and its derivative statistics: working hours: Hours worked increased in 2016

The total number of hours worked in Switzerland reached 7.892 billion in 2016, representing an increase of 1.4% compared with the previous year. According to the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), between 2011 and 2016, the actual weekly hours worked by full-time employees declined by 13 minutes and stood at 41 hours and 10 minutes, whereas the number of weeks of annual holiday continued its gradual increase to 5.12 weeks.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook for the Swiss Economy Remains Favourable

The KOF Economic Barometer rose further and reaches a value of 106.8 in July. In June, the Barometer stood at a value of 105.8 (revised from 105.5). The Barometer has been trending above its historical average for some time now and the outlook for the Swiss economy remains favourable.

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator June: Subdued Growth

UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however this was offset somewhat by robust new car registrations data and overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.

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UBS Outlook Switzerland: Generation Silver in the labor market

A longer working life can counteract the demography-related shortage of skilled workers and spiraling social security expenditure. For this to happen, however, the reintegration of older employees must be improved and gainful employment made more attractive beyond the age of retirement. New, innovative concepts are needed that point the way toward a labor market that is more flexible and better-oriented to the needs older employed workers.

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Swiss Trade Balance First half of 2017: Exports with record value

In the first half of 2017, both exports (+ 4.4%) and imports (+ 4.8%) were dynamic. While the former scored a record result, the latter scored a higher in eight years. In both directions of traffic, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed decisively to growth. The trade balance loops with a surplus of 19 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2017: -0.1 YoY, -0,1 MoM

The Producer Price Index (PPI) or officially named “Producer and Import Price Index” describes the changes in prices for producers and importers. For us it is interesting because it is used in the formula for the Real Effective Exchange Rate. When producers and importers profit on lower price changes when compared to other countries, then the Swiss Franc reduces its overvaluation.

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Switzerland Unemployment in June 2017: Remained unchanged at 3.2 percent seasonally adjusted

Registered unemployment in June 2017 - According to the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs (SECO) surveys, 133'603 unemployed persons were registered at the Regional Employment Centers (RAV) at the end of June 2017, 6'175 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate thus fell from 3.1% in May 2017 to 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 5'524 persons (-4.0%).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2017: Up +0.2 percent against 2016, -0.1 percent against last month

The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% in June 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.2% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, May: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in May 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in May 2017 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade...

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Tourism balance of payments 2016: Negative in 2016

For the first time in its history, the tourism balance of payments was negative in 2016. Expenditure by Swiss residents during visits abroad exceeded the expenditure of non-residents during their stay in Switzerland. The former spent CHF 16.3 billion abroad in 2016, 3.8% more than in 2015. Expenditure by the latter in Switzerland rose by 1.4% to CHF 16 billion. In an economic climate marked by a strong franc, the tourism balance of payments was CHF...

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KOF Economic Barometer June: Prospects Are Brightening again

In June 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer rises by 3.5 points (from revised 102.0 in May) to 105.5. It thus largely recovers from the substantial decrease in the previous month. Accordingly, the short-term outlook for the Swiss economy suggests above-average growth rates.

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