Category Archive: Swiss Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

Swiss Trade Balance 3rd Quarter 2017: Foreign Trade at a High Level

With adjusted working days, exports grew by 2.5% and imports by 7.4% in the third quarter of 2017. Trade was thus consolidated at a high level. The balance of the trade balance contracted from 10.3 to 8.5 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2017: +0.8 YoY, +0.5 MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in September 2017 by 0.5% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.5 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products, basic metals, semi-finished products of metal, and scrap. Compared with September 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.8%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in September 2017: Situation on the Labor Market

Registered unemployment in September 2017 - According to the SECO surveys, 133,169 unemployed persons were registered at the regional employment services centers (RAV) at the end of September 2017, 2,409 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment fell by 9'506 persons (-6.7%).

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in September 2017: Consumer prices increased by 0.2 percent in September

The consumer price index (IPC) increased by 0.2% in September 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.9 points (December 2015=100).

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Swiss Retail Sales, August 2017: -0.6 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.6% in nominal terms in August 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer: Outlook for the Swiss Economy Remains Favourable

In September 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer increases by 1.6 points. It thus partially reverses its previous month’s decline. With a new reading of 105.8, the Barometer still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that the outlook remains favourable - the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates in the near future.

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator August: A pleasant end to summer

The UBS consumption indicator increased to 1.53 points in August thanks to robust new car registrations and encouraging numbers of hotel stays by Swiss residents, indicating consumption growth slightly above the long-term average of 1.5%. However, the UBS economists still project 1.3% consumer spending growth for the year overall.

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Swiss annual growth forecast takes a cut

Swiss economic growth estimates for the year have been revised down to under 1% by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). This would make it the slowest year since 2009. The stats released Thursday predict a growth rate of 0.9% for 2017. The figure has fallen from previous estimates of 1.4%, and would mark the worst-performing economic year since a 2.2% contraction in 2009.

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Swiss economy resumes stronger growth

Economic forecasts by the Federal Government’s Expert Group – autumn 2017* - Because of the weak performance in the first half of the year, the Federal Government’s Expert Group anticipates only moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in 2017.

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Swiss Trade Balance August 2017: Dynamism of Imports

In August 2017, Swiss foreign trade grew stronger both at entry and exit. With growth of 9.9%, imports were much more dynamic than exports (+ 3.9%). The balance of trade closed with a surplus of 2.2 billion francs.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in August 2017: +0.6 YoY, +0.3 MoM

The Producer and Import Price Index rose in August 2017 by 0.3% compared with the previous month, reaching 100.0 points (base December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products and chemical products. Compared with August 2016, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 0.6%.

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Swiss Real Estate: The Empty Dwellings Rate Continues to Increase

On 1 June 2017, there were 64'893 empty dwellings in Switzerland, i.e. 1.47% of the entire country's dwelling stock (including single-family houses). This figure represents an increase of 8375 empty dwellings compared with the previous year, i.e. a rise of almost 15%.

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Switzerland Unemployment in August 2017: Unemployment Slightly Falling

Registered unemployment in August 2017 - At the end of August 2017 135'578 unemployed persons were registered at the Regional Employment Services Centers (RAV), according to the SECO (State Secretariat for Economic Affairs), 1'652 more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 3.0% in the reporting month. Compared to the previous month, unemployment decreased by 7'280 persons (-5.1%).

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Switzerland Q2 GDP: +0.3 percent QoQ

Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.3 % in the 2nd quarter of 2017. Manufacturing, the financial sector and the hotel and catering in-dustry significantly boosted growth, while developments in trade, public administration and the healthcare sector were sluggish. On the expenditure side, growth was driven by domestic demand, with positive momentum coming from both consumption and investment.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in August 2017: Consumer prices remained stable in August

The consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged in August 2017 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.6 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 0.5% compared with the same month of the previous year.

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Swiss Retail Sales, July 2017: -0.8 percent Nominal and -1.1 percent Real

Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.8% in nominal terms in July 2017 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.1% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator July: Weaker Swiss Franc Offers a Ray of Hope

UBS consumption indicator printed 1.38 in June, pointing to subdued growth in Swiss private consumption in recent months. Relatively weak growth in employment was much to blame for the lackluster number, however this was offset somewhat by robust new car registrations data and overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals.

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KOF Economic Barometer Falls

In August 2017, the KOF Economic Barometer fell by 3.9 points. It thus more than reversed its previous month’s climb. With a new reading of 104.1, however, it still points to a level clearly above its long-term average. This indicates that in the near future the Swiss economy should continue to grow at above average rates.

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Structural Business Statistics 2015: Employment grows again thanks to the tertiary sector

here were 597,000 enterprises in Switzerland in 2015, i.e. an increase of 3578 entities (+0.6%) in one year. The number of jobs, measured in full-time equivalents, also saw similar growth (+0.5%). These changes were mainly due to the dynamism of very small and very large units in the tertiary sector, according to the latest findings of the structural business statistics (STATENT) from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO)

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Employment barometer in 2nd quarter 2017: Employment situation: more confident business outlook

In the 2nd quarter 2017, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 0.4% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.1% with previous quarter). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 0.2%. The Swiss economy counted 5700 more vacancies than in the corresponding quarter of the previous year (+10.5%) and the employment outlook indicator is also indicating an upward trend (+0.7%). These are some of the findings from...

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