Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in June 2018: +3.5 YoY, +0.2 MoM

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, June 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index increased in June 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The rise is due in particular to higher prices for petroleum products and timber products. Compared with June 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 3.5%.

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Europe chart of the week – UK GDP growth

2018-07-13

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2018-07-13

UK monthly GDP Jun 2016-Jun 2018
Short-term rebound in the UK, driven by services.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published this week a new rolling monthly estimate of UK GDP. The release pointed to a rebound of growth in Q2 (quarterly data will be published on August 8). According to the ONS, the rolling three-month growth to end-May was 0.2%, compared to 0% in the three months to end-April (see chart below).Looking at the details, the services sector (79% of the...

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Research and Development: Federal Expenses and Staff in 2017

2018-07-12

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2018-07-12

R & D expenditures of the federal government, 2004-2017
In 2017, the Confederation spent CHF 2.2 billion on research and experimental development (R&D). This represents a 7% increase compared with 2015, the year of the previous survey. This is a record amount, mainly paid in the form of contributions to support research activities. Over the same period, Confederation personnel employed in R&D activities declined by 4%, reaching 875 jobs in full-time equivalents.

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Switzerland Unemployment in June 2018: Up to 2.4percent from 2.3percent, seasonally adjusted up to 2.6percent from 2.5percent

2018-07-10

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2018-07-10

Switzerland Unemployment Rate n.s.a., Aug 2013 - Jul 2018
Registered unemployment in June 2018 - According to SECO surveys, at the end of June 2018, 106,579 unemployed were registered at the regional employment agencies (RAV), 2,813 less than in the previous month. The unemployment rate remained at 2.4% in the month under review. Compared with the same month last year, unemployment fell by 27,024 people (-20.2%).

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Euro area: a slight rebound

2018-07-08

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2018-07-08

Eurozone Markit PMI, 2010 - 2018
The final reading for the euro area composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 54.1 in May to 54.9 in June, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 54.8. However, the manufacturing PMI fell further, to an 18-month low of 54.9, due to weakness in France and Germany.

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Credit Suisse: “Our Risk Appetite Index Is Near Panic”

2018-07-07

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2018-07-07

Next Month, Another Mishap
Sure, it's been a bad year for investors, with the S&P posting the smallest of gains in the first half (all of which thanks to tech stocks) after several hair-raising, monthly incidents including February's vol-spike, April's real yield scare, May's Emerging Market massacre and June's trade war fears as shown in the following Citi chart...

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in June 2018: +1.1 percent YoY, Stable MoM

2018-07-05

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2018-07-05

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, June 2018
The consumer price index (CPI) remained stable in June 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was 1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, May: +0.2 percent Nominal and -1.2 percent Real

2018-07-02

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2018-07-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, May 2018
Turnover in the retail sector rose by 0.2% in nominal terms in May 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.2% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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KOF Economic Barometer, June: Economic Outlook Improves Slightly

2018-06-29

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2018-06-29

KOF Economic Barometer, June 2018
The KOF Economic Barometer rose again in June for the first time in three months. It increased by 1.7 points to 101.7 points, stopping its downward tendency in spring. The current Barometer value is now slightly above the long-term average of 100.0. Thus, the KOF Economic Barometer indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland. The tailwind for the Swiss economy is no longer as strong as during winter.

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Tourism Balance of Payments Slightly Negative in 2017

2018-06-29

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2018-06-29

T1 Einnahmen und Ausgaben, 2017 (in Mio. Franken)
For the second consecutive year, the tourism balance of payments was negative in 2017. This means that expenditure by Swiss residents during visits abroad exceeded the expenditure of non-residents during their stay in Switzerland. In an economic climate still marked by a strong franc, the tourism balance of payments was CHF -122 million, according to initial estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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London House Prices Fall 1.9 percent In Quarter – Bubble Bursting?

2018-06-28

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2018-06-28

London House Prices Bubble, 1995 - 2018
London house prices down 1.9 per cent in Q2 (yoy). London house prices still 50% above 2007 bubble peak (see chart). Brexit and weak consumer confidence to blame say experts. Little sign that U.K. property “weakness” is likely to change. London property bubble appears to be bursting.

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Rise in Bund yield will be limited

2018-06-22

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2018-06-22

Euro Area Composite PMI and Germany 10-year Bund Yield, 2015 - 2018
With the faltering in euro area business sentiment since February, the Italy-led sell-off of risk assets at the end of May and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish meeting in June, we are revising our year-end forecast for the German 10-year Bund yield from 0.9% to 0.6%, as we hinted we might do in a previous note.

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Swiss Trade Balance May 2018: Foreign trade overcomes stagnation

2018-06-21

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2018-06-21

Switzerland Trade Balance, May 2018
After stagnating in previous months, exports rose in May 2018. Seasonally adjusted exports rose 0.9% in one month. Imports were more dynamic, at + 3.8%. Chemistry-pharma and the vehicle sector generated 90% of growth in both traffic directions. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 2.3 billion francs.

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Tourist accommodation in 2017: supplementary accommodation recorded growth in overnight stays of close to 7 percent

2018-06-19

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2018-06-19

Monthly overnight stay share of the hotel industry and parahotelie in 2017
In 2017, supplementary accommodation posted a total of 15.9 million overnight stays, i.e. an increase of 6.9% compared with 2016. With 10.8 million units, Swiss visitors represented more than two-thirds of demand (68.3%), i.e. a rise of 7.0%. Foreign visitors registered a 6.6% increase with 5.0 million units. Among this clientele, European visitors generated the most overnight stays with a total of 4.2 million (+8.4%).

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European cars at a crossroad

2018-06-18

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2018-06-18

European Union: New car registrations 2010-2018
Falling momentum in new car sales, together with the threat of US tariffs is adding to the uncertainty facing the European car industry.Last weekend’s G7 summit in Canada ended badly, with President Trump withdrawing his support for the summit’s final statement. Heightening tensions between Europe and the US are Trump’s hints that the White House is considering import tariffs on cars and car parts.

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Union européenne. Les chiffres de la dette. LHK

2018-06-17

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2018-06-17

Le volume cumulée d’endettement de l’UE atteint en 2017 le chiffre respectable de 12, 46664 billions d’euros (à ne pas confondre avec le billion américain!). - Cela revient à un endettement cumulé de 12 466 640 000 000 euros, soit 12 trillions d’euros (référence de mesure US)

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Swiss Unemployment Continues to Fall

2018-06-16

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2018-06-16

Swiss-unemployment
The number of registered unemployed in Switzerland dropped by 9% in May 2018 to a rate of 2.4%, down from 2.7% in April, according to a report by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). The rate in May 2018 was 22% lower than in May 2017.

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Swiss wage index 2017: Nominal wage increase of 0.4percent in 2017 – real wages decrease by 0.1percent

2018-06-15

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2018-06-15

Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real wages 1990-2017
The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.4% on average in 2017 compared with 2016. It settled at 101.1 points (base 2015 = 100). Given an average annual inflation rate of +0.5%, real wages registered a decrease of -0.1% (101.0 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Credit Spreads: Polly is Twitching Again – in Europe

2018-06-14

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2018-06-14

Polly
The famous dead parrot is coming back to life… in an unexpected place. With its QE operations, which included inter alia corporate bonds, the ECB has managed to suppress credit spreads in Europe to truly ludicrous levels.

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