Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.
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Downturn Rising, German Industry

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

US Treasury Yield Curve, Aug 2007 - Jan 2019
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any more than they were.

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Watch Europe – Free Pass for the Elliott Wave European Financial Forecast

2019-03-09

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2019-03-09

Euro Stoxx 50 and DAX, Daily
Europe at an Important Juncture. European economic fundamentals have deteriorated rather noticeably over the past year – essentially ever since the German DAX Index topped out in January 2018. Now, European stock markets have reached an important juncture from a technical perspective.

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Not Buying The New Stimulus

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

ECB GDP Projections, March 2016 - 2019
What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates.

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ECB: to LTRO, or not LTRO, what is the question?

2019-03-06

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2019-03-06

Stylised policy options for new (T)LTRO
The ECB’s decision on (T)LTRO will matter most to the euro area periphery banks who have been the biggest consumers of current TLTROs. Considering the weakness in most economic indicators the ECB should maintain an adequate degree of monetary accommodation.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in February 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, February 2018
05.03.2019 - The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in February 2019 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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ECB: running out of runway – Part II

2019-03-03

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2019-03-03

ECB Balance Sheet All Assets, 1999 - 2018
Overall, under Mr. Draghi’s watch, the ECB’s balance sheet has ballooned to a previously unimaginable scale and aggressive policies like the extensive QE program and negative rates have encouraged the accumulation of debt and heavily distorted market mechanisms.

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Swiss Retail Sales, January 2019: -0.3 percent Nominal and -0.4 percent Real

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, January 2019
Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.3% in nominal terms in January 2019 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.4% in January 2019 compared with the previous year.

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Switzerland GDP Q4 2018: +0.2 percent QoQ, +1.4 percent YoY

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (GDP) QoQ, Q4 2018
Switzerland’s GDP rose by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2018. Manufacturing saw dynamic growth. Concurrently, exports of goods increased significantly. In contrast, domestic demand stagnated. GDP growth was 2.5% for 2018 as a whole.

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The Swiss hotel sector saw a new record number of overnight stays in 2018

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Overnight stays 2018
The hotel sector in Switzerland registered 38.8 million overnight stays in 2018, i.e. the best result to date. This represented a growth of 3.8% (+1.4 million) compared with 2017. Foreign demand totalled 21.4 million units, an increase of 4.5% (+921 000) and its best performance in 10 years. Swiss overnight stays increased by 2.9% (+493 000), thus reaching the record value of 17.4 million overnight stays.

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ECB: running out of runway – Part I

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

Euro-area Industrial Weakness, 2010 - 2019
At the end of January, only a month after the official end of the QE program of the European Central Bank (ECB), its President Mario Draghi told the European Parliament’s committee that the central bank could resume its bond purchasing, in a questionable effort to assuage concerns over the impact of the policy change.

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GERMANY: ECONOMY & SOVEREIGN BOND

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

German Bund, 2016 - 2019
A host of factors weighed on German growth in H2 2018: a sharp slowdown in global demand on the external side and several transitory factors on the domestic side impacted industrial activity. At the same time, the 10-year German Bund yield has been trending downward. The steep fall in the oil price in late 2018, the economic slowdown and the Bund’s safe haven status are all factors behind the German bund’s yield fall.

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Switzerland Employment Barometer in the Q4 2018: Situation Sustained

2019-02-25

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2019-02-25

Switzerland Employment Level, Q4 2018
In the 4th quarter 2018, total employment (number of jobs) rose by 1.3% in comparison with the same quarter a year earlier (+0.2% with previous quarter; seasonally adjusted figures). In full-time equivalents, employment in the same period rose by 1.6%.

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Gold to consolidate before further leg up

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Gold Demand Breakdown 2000-2019
Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better.Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4).

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Swiss Trade Balance January 2019: Start of a Positive year

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, January 2019
Swiss foreign trade started the year 2019 in a positive way. Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.1% to 18.9 billion francs and imports by 3.4% to 17.5 billion. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.

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Euro area : What if car tariffs lie ahead ?

2019-02-16

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2019-02-16

Share in value added of Exports of car and car parts to the US
New US auto tariffs may impact the economy significantly more than the previous tariffs on steel and aluminium.Among the key risks for our euro area outlook, the threat of US auto tariffs is of major importance.The US Commerce Department’s investigation on national security threats posed by auto imports is due to be concluded on 17 February.

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4th quarter 2018: 0.8percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition at 4.6percent

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2013-Q4 2018
14.02.2019 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 4th quarter 2017 and the 4th quarter 2018. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 7.3% to 6.6%.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in January 2019: -0.5 percent YoY, -0.7 percent MoM

2019-02-14

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2019-02-14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, January 2019
14.02.2019 - The Producer and Import Price Index fell in January 2019 by 0.7% compared with the previous month, reaching 101.7 points (December 2015 = 100). This decline is due in particular to lower prices for petroleum products. Compared with January 2018, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products fell by 0.5%.

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Swiss Consumer Price Index in January 2019: +0.6 percent YoY, -0.3 percent MoM

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Switzerland Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY, January 2018
The consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% in January 2019 compared with the previous month, reach-ing 101.3 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 0.6% compared with the same month of the pre-vious year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Swiss Retail Sales, December 2018: -0.1 percent Nominal and -0.3 percent Real

2019-02-01

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2019-02-01

Switzerland Retail Sales YoY, December 2018
01.02.2019 - Turnover in the retail sector fell by 0.1% in nominal terms in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 0.3% compared with the previous month. Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 0.3% in December 2018 compared with the previous year. Real growth takes inflation into consideration.

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Exports save the day for French GDP growth

2019-01-31

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2019-01-31

French Quarterly GDP, Q1 2016 - Q1 2018
Prospects for French economic growth are looking up, but disruptions to consumption are possible.French GDP rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q4, the same pace as in Q3. The details reveal that Q4 exports surged significantly, while household consumption and investment slowed. This left growth for the year at +1.5%, following +2.3% in 2017.

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