Category Archive: 1) SNB and CHF

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Why the SNB fixed the peg at 1.2010 and not at 1.2000 ?

2012-05-24

As we have showed in a preceding post, the SNB seems to have decided the peg the franc to the euro at 1.20. Therefore the SNB traders were actively selling euros and buying francs even close to the floor limit of 1.20. But then in the beginning of April some Asian traders managed to push the … Continue reading...

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Is the play time over for the SNB ? SNB Buys Euros Again, but the EUR/CHF does not move a pip

2012-05-20

by George Dorgan

2012-05-20

As also noticed by Credit Suisse, the Swiss National Bank had to buy euros and sell Swiss francs in the week of May 11th to May 18th. Their recent easy strategy to sell euros and buy Swiss Francs and to diversify from euros into other currencies may not continue.

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Former SNB chief economist: Capital controls are just empty words

2012-05-20

by George Dorgan

2012-05-20

A former SNB chief economist says that capital controls are impossible, just empty words. In case of a Euro break-up the Swissie must rise together with USD, GBP and JPY An article, surprisingly from the usually left-wing Tagesanzeiger, more or less closely translated with some additional remarks.

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Is the SNB pegging away from the Euro to the SDR currency basket using their FX reserves ?

2012-05-10

by George Dorgan

2012-05-10

snb fx currency distribution q1 2012 usd eur jpy

We reckon that the central bank has introduced an automatic peg mechanism which obliges them to buy euros at exactly 1.2010 and sell euros above this level (reasons and details here). If they sold more euros than they bought, they are happy to have offloaded some items of their overloaded balance sheet. If they bought more euros than they sold, however, there are some "superfluous" euros. Instead putting these euros on their balance sheet, they...

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SNB buys Swiss Francs and sells Euro: Welcome to the EUR/CHF peg

2012-05-01

by George Dorgan

2012-05-01

Why the big Q1 loss of the SNB was actually a big win for the central bank Anybody watching the EUR/CHF exchange rate this year was wondering why the volatility the pair saw last year had completely left. The pair slowly fell from 1.2156 over 1.2040 at the end of Q1 to 1.2014 today. FX … Continue reading...

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012

2012-03-31

by George Dorgan

2012-03-31

Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »

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SNB Statistical Publications

SNB meeting on March 15th, 2012: Pure Speculation that SNB raises floor, How to Trade it ?

2012-03-14

by George Dorgan

2012-03-14

Between November 2011 and January 2012 mostly left-wing politicians and trade unions wanted the EUR/CHF floor to be risen to 1.30 or 1.40 and uttered their wishes regularly in the Swiss newspapers, triggering many FX traders to speculate on this hike. Recently these demands have become more silent even if some UBS analysts still see the floor to …

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: February 2012

2012-02-02

by George Dorgan

2012-02-02

EUR/CHF Busy Doing Jack; Jordan Gobbing Off Later EUR/CHF sits at 1.2048, some 7 pips easier from when I started out. Barrier option interest sits at 1.2025 and ofcourse 1.2000. SNB interim head honcho Jordan speaks later this evening (18:30 GMT) in Zurich. Might be giving instructions on how to make his favourite alpine muesli … Continue reading...

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor Hike: January 2012

2012-01-31

by George Dorgan

2012-01-31

1.2034 The EUR/CHF Low As Risk-Off Resumes 1.2025 barrier supposedly in play while the 1.2000 peg below will act as a magnet if broken. There is something about the forex mindset that prompts markets to reach out and touch things that are not meant to be touched. EUR/US fell to 1.3063, triggering a few … Continue reading »

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Letters: On Mitt Romney, India, Switzerland, common law, "The Iron Lady", executive pay, theme parks, walking, the Olympics

2012-01-26

by The Economist

2012-01-26