Category Archive: 6b) Austrian Economics

Eugen von Böhm Bawerk
“Value does not come out of the workshop, but out of the wants that goods satisfy” The quote by Mr Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk is as true today as it was more than 100 years ago, even though modern pundits often ignore the simple fact. This blog is not an attempt to revive Mr Böhm-Bawerks thoughts, life and deeds, but from a sober view of the world comment on and analyze ongoing events. We aim to take the analysis a step further. We question accepted truths and always strive to answer the simple question “why?” We are opinionated.

Increasing Price Inflation is Not a Sign of Healthy Recovery, but the Last Stage Before Recession

In a recent article by Kessler Companies (hat tip Zerohedge) they correctly point out that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, have a tendency to accelerate as the US economy moves into a recession. Contrary to popular belief, the beg...

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Can Maduro Mayhem Last to 2017

Things are turning increasingly ugly in Venezuela between President Maduro and the opposition MUD. The core political problem after December 2015 elections is the PSUV are now using the courts to neuter any opposition voices that formally hold a legi...

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How Italy will fail and drag down the European Project

Italy is big enough to matter (it is the eight largest economy on the planet), but so uneventful that most does not pay any attention to what is going on there. We contend that Italy will, during the next year or two, be on everyone’s radar screen as it has the potential to derail the European project for real.

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China’s 3 trillion dollar mistake

When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament. By managing the USD/CNY exchange rate the Chinese factory worker was essentially funding excess consumption in the Unit...

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What the Fed Did NOT do

We will not spend much time discussing what the FOMC did as tons of ink have been spilled on that already. We will rather spend more time on what the FOMC did not do. A short recap will suffice; the FOMC did raise the interest rate band by 25 basis p...

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How Peak Debt Constrain the Fed from Moving Rates Higher

We have argued for a long time that 2016 will probably be a year of recession in the US and the Federal Reserve’s intent on raising rates will only help expedite it. We believe the current rate cycle will be short lived as the Federal Reserve is cons...

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Unintended consequences of lift-off in a world of excess reserves

Bar a disastrous NFP print this coming Friday the US Federal Reserve will change the target range for the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank’s Funds rate from the current level of zero – 25bp to 25 – 50bp on December 16th.  The Fed will effectively raise the...

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What a Negative SWAP Spread Really Means

SWAP spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. As can be seen from the chart below, treasury yields, here represented by the 10 year maturity, rose during QE policies programs contrad...

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How the Fed gave away its independence – Interest Rate Sensitivity at ZLB

In fiscal year 2014, which ended September 30 2014, the Federal government of the United States reported a cumulative deficit of US$484 billion, while the total debt outstanding increased by more than a trillion dollars. For fiscal year 2015, the dif...

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The Credit Multiplier – Revisited

In last week’s article, we explained how the yield curve could cause GDP to contract in The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship. Some of our readers suggested the analysis was wrong on back of an outdated view of modern money creation. The cr...

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The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship?

One of the most reliable indicators of an imminent recession through recent history has been the yield curve. Whenever longer dated rates falls below shorter dated ones, a recession is not far off. Some would even say that yield curve inversion, or backwardation, help cause the economic contraction.

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The Great Unwind

Over the decade long commodity boom made in China we have all been accustomed to the large and growing current account surpluses being recycled back into western financial security markets. Case in point, from 2000 to its peak in the fall of 2013 the...

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Zerohedge and its economic philosophy



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6) Austrian Economics



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The Misleading Concept Called GDP

GDP is (or has become) a measurement of activity and consumption but not of capital accumulation and production. In many cases, GDP is negatively correlated to savings. Higher savings (aka austerity) lead to lower GDP today, but higher GDP in the future. In its worst case, GDP growth could be completely based on credit, eliminating the capital basis of a country (example Greece). Western countries saw rising housing investments based on more...

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Libertarian and Austrian economic theory

Libertarian economic theories comprises Austrian economists and Free Market economists like Nozick, Narveson, Gathier, Caplan, Bryan Caplan, David Friedman and the Randian philosophy.

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Did Austrian Economists Get the Recovery Wrong?

Austrians got the recovery after the financial crisis wrong. Monetary expansion did not lead to hyperinflation and a collapse of central banks. Their mistake was that the Austrian principle of "too cheap money leads to wrong investments", is currently not valid. Due to high risk aversion after the financial crisis, firms do only only best projects. Austrian economists were right before the crisis, but after the crisis Keynesians and Germans with...

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The Swiss-tuation: Negative LIBOR

[unable to retrieve full-text content]We're through the looking glass, people! Not only is Abercrombie & Fitch paying people not to wear its clothing, but now some bank somewhere claims to be getting a negative rate to lend Swiss francs in the short term to another bank.

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From One Crisis to Another: One Month T-Bill Yields Go Negative Again

[unable to retrieve full-text content]The one-month T-bill yields zero again, as God intended, and even briefly turned negative this morning, as investors scramble for the safest, most-liquid assets they can find.

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