Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Flying Blind: Clueless about Risk, We’re Speeding Toward Systemic Failure

2020-10-29

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2020-10-29

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There's an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it.

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ECB Preview

2020-10-28

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2020-10-28

Balance Sheets, USD Trln 2007-2020
The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now.

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Dollar Bid as Markets Start the Week in Risk-Off Mode

2020-10-28

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2020-10-28

Pound Performance, 2020
Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note. Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in.

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How Systems Collapse: Reaping What We’ve Sown

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

Don't expect healthcare or any other hollowed-out, heavily optimized system to function as it once did. A great many Americans will be shocked when our healthcare systems start failing because they believed the PR that "we have the finest healthcare system in the world.

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Charitable Remainder Trusts

2020-10-27

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2020-10-27

Alhambra's' Bob Williams describes Charitable Remainder Trusts and how they can be used as a planning tool to create a win-win for you and charities.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-10-26

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2020-10-26

EM FX took advantage once again of broad dollar weakness. Most EM currencies were up last week against the dollar, with the only exceptions being ARS, TRY, INR, THB, PEN, and MYR. We expect the dollar to remain under pressure this week and so EM should remain bid.

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Next Up: Global Depression

2020-10-26

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2020-10-26

The belief that central banks printing currency can "buy/fix" everything that's broken, lost or scarce is the ultimate in denial, fantasy and magical thinking. Let's revisit the pandemic projection chart I prepared on February 2, 2020, nine days after authorities publicly acknowledged the Covid virus outbreak in China.

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Yep, There’s A New ‘V’ In Town And The Locals…Don’t Seem To Much Care For It

2020-10-25

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2020-10-25

They should be drooling over the prospects of a clearing path toward normality. The pain and disaster of 2020’s economic hole receding into a more pleasant 2021 which would have been in position to conceivably pay it all back before any long run damage.

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Consumer Confidence Indicator: Anesthesia

2020-10-24

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2020-10-24

European Commision Consumer Confidence Indicator, 2006-2020
Europeans are growing more downbeat again. While ostensibly many are more worried about a new set of restrictions due to (even more overreactions about) COVID, that’s only part of the problem. The bigger factor, economically speaking, is that Europe’s economy has barely moved, or at most not moved near enough, off the bottom.

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Dollar Catches Modest Bid but Weakness to Resume

2020-10-23

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2020-10-23

Cross-Market Implied Vol, 2020
Geopolitical tensions have risen after US officials accused Russia and Iran of meddling in the elections; the dollar has caught a modest bid today. Stimulus talks continue; Pelosi warned that a deal may not come together before the November 3 election; whether Republican Senators change their minds after the elections depends on the outcome.

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Everything is Staged

2020-10-22

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2020-10-22

All the staging is a means to an end, and everyone in America is nothing more than a means to an end: close the sale so the few can continue exploiting the many. You know how realtors stage a house to increase its marketability: first, they remove all evidence that people actually live there.

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The New Tyranny Few Even Recognize

2020-10-21

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2020-10-21

Clearly, the Fed reckons the public is foolish enough to believe the Fed's money will actually be "free." It's pretty much universally recognized that authorities use crises to impose "emergency powers" that become permanent.

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Dollar Soft as Markets Await Fresh News and Rumours

2020-10-21

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2020-10-21

USD YTD Performance, 2020
The dollar is coming under pressure again; markets are finally waking up to the fact that a stimulus deal before 2021 is unlikely; 10-year Treasury yields have been trading in a narrow range for months.

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Will the Stock Market Be Dragged to the Guillotine?

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

The Fed's rigged-casino stock market will be dragged to the guillotine by one route or another. The belief that the Federal Reserve and its rigged-casino stock market are permanent and forever is touchingly naive. Never mind the existential crises just ahead; the financial "industry" (heh) projects unending returns of 7% per year, or is it 14% per year?

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-10-20

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2020-10-20

Some are holding out hope but we think the stimulus package remains dead; Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week. Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported Thursday; BOC releases results of its Q3 Business Outlook Survey Monday.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-10-19

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2020-10-19

Risk assets are coming off a tough week. The dollar was bid across the board except for the yen, which outperformed slightly. The only EM currencies to gain against the dollar were KRW and CLP. The major US equity indices somehow managed to eke out very modest gains but stock markets across Europe sank as the viral spread threatens to slam economic activity again.

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5 Estate Planning Myths That Can Derail Your Estate Plan

2020-10-18

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2020-10-18

You spend a lifetime earning, saving, acquiring. But the old adage is true—you can’t take it with you. So, what do you do with your assets when you’re gone? How do you want them distributed? That’s where a good estate plan comes in.

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Dollar Gains as Market Sentiment Goes South

2020-10-17

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2020-10-17

FX Implied Volatility, 2019-2020
Virus restrictions across Europe continue to sour sentiment; the dollar is benefiting from the risk-off backdrop. The stimulus package is deader than Elvis; Fed manufacturing surveys for October will start to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported; Chile is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5%.

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Why We’re Doomed: Our Delusional Faith in Incremental Change

2020-10-16

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2020-10-16

Incremental delusion
Better not to risk any radical evolution that might fail, and so failure is thus assured. When times are good, modest reforms are all that's needed to maintain the ship's course. By "good times," I mean eras of rising prosperity which generate bigger budgets, profits, tax revenues, paychecks, etc., eras characterized by high levels of stability and predictability.

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Dollar Bounce Remains Modest as Headwinds Build

2020-10-15

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2020-10-15

UK Hospital Admissions
The dollar is making a modest comeback; stimulus talks have hit a dead end; we get more US inflation readings for September. Brexit talks continue ahead of the EU summit Thursday and Friday; a new bill by the UK government could change the investment landscape in the country.

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